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Europa League Discussion Thread

Forum: Soccer
Author: [Soccer] Topic: Europa League Discussion Thread
LooseNotLose PM LooseNotLose
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Posted: 2/12/2018 9:23:51 AM
CL’s little brother this week as well...as I mentioned in Spec’s thread, I’m as interested in learned about the teams as I am in the angles.  

I’ve got opinions on a couple.

First off, Marseille.  This is a team that I was really down on for the first half of the year, but really seem to have found another gear.  They’ve scored at least two goals in 9 of their last 10 matches, including 6 vs. Metz (last place ligue 1) and 9 vs. Bourg Peronnas (2nd division and worst defense in Ligue 2, and even worse since mid-October when they lost their captain to injury).  Meanwhile, they were held scoreless at Lyon, scored just one against a defensively tough L2 Valenciennes side, and scored just one goal on the road in EL and were shutout three times in 6 games.  But only gave up 4 as well.  

Braga won their group, while Marseille finished second but their form over the last two months makes me think they should be able to get the win at home, but Braga +1 at +110 seems like good value.

Lyon beat Paris and promptly fell off a cliff in league play most recently losing to Rennes  at home and getting shut out no less making it three straight since their shocking victory over PSG.  They did mix in a couple of cup victories including one over Monaco since then.  They and Atalanta played each other tough but they both made easy work of the other two teams in the group and finished 2nd.  With the final at Parc OL, it would certainly be a dream scenario for Lyon to play in the final.  Villarreal have lost two straight in the league themselves and have a very strong record away from home in Europe losing only once in their last 14 games, while Lyon have 6 wins and one draw since last year in Europa, giving up more than 1 goal only to Roma in a 4-2 win.   Lyon ML at even money is my initial lean

Others I like but know others probably know more than I...

Zenit pk maybe even ML - this Celtic team just does not impress while Zenit rolled through the group.
Copenhagen +1
Sociedad Salzburg under 2.5 +$
Plzen over 2.5 +$
emduece PM emduece
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Posted: 2/12/2018 10:22:08 AM
I was wondering when youd start this up loose.
Like your thoughts, cska play tomorrow as well. Ill be back later with updates from eastern european teams
takeittothe_max PM takeittothe_max
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Posted: 2/12/2018 11:13:54 AM
..... Great write-up, very informative. Glad to see you taking the time and appreciate your thoughts .....


Dogberto PM Dogberto
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Posted: 2/12/2018 12:07:35 PM

Great stuff thank you.

Can Atalanta go on the road and get a point +286 maybe 3 points +339. BVB not been in great form and Atlanata has played well on the road in league and EL.

In CL BVB lat home 0-2-1 in league last five at home 2-1-2

Altlatna EL road 1-0-2 with draw against Lyon. League 4-0-1 wins against Roma AC Milan and even beating Napoli in the Coppa.

I think we see a tight game and the under 2.5 +115

 

Atletico -1 even could be interesting. I think at worse it is a push. Not sure if Atletico really cares or will just focus on La Liga to try to catch Barca. ATM is another team that has been pretty good n the road. Even in CL they tied all three road games. Since Costa joined the team 5-0-1 in league. I think the team will continue to jeal and we will see more goals from them.

I'm not that familiar with Copenhagen but they have not fared well against some to the top teams in Denmark.

Look forward to a fun week

 

 

 

specimen24 PM specimen24
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Posted: 2/12/2018 1:36:57 PM
Loose, pardon my 'short-sightedness', havent looked at these matchups/lines/opponents due to that little "distraction" tmrw. 
heres my thoughts from what I have regarding the Serie A teams/knowledge (irrespective of their first round opponent):

unlike the CL, i think it's important for the capper to understand a clubs motivation/perspectives towards this. and unlike the CL, I pay closer attention to a teams current standing in the domestic tables. dont want to paint this with a broad brush as it doesnt apply to all but some are fighting for titles, or a COVETED CL slot for next year; and this is important to understand. and on the flip side of that, some clubs have no chance at league titles (aka, Arsenal, Bilbao, Milan, Leip/Dort) and they might go for it here. 
 
Atalanta - first of all, the players/club really looking forward to this competition; they are super-tough at home fyi. Gasperini played Lyon with a FULL squad just a few days before their date with Juve back in October & played with a full lineup just to clinch 1st place in the final match of group stages. that should answer ones concerns regarding their motivation.   i think theyve scored in every roadie this year too, which, to me, is impressive. 

Milan - uve probably seen me mention this several times already, but Gattuso has lit a fire under these guys. this is a different team nowadays, throw away that sh*t-show we saw at start of season.  and everything ive read is that theyre 'going for it' here. chance for hardware and definitely have the skill-sets to do it. 

Napoli - avoid them.  or at least WAIT till lineups. The Scudetto.... is front & center of their universe. with that being said, they DO have the talent to make it to the finals, and they get Millik back soon. dont pay attention to the 'lip-service' in the media this week regarding their match.... again.... Scudetto Scudetto Scudetto. it would not suprise me if Sarri RESTS players for the Serie A. he was heavily critisized by his bosses for NOT resting players vs ManC in CL for godsakes , what ya think Europa means for the higher ups? 

Lazio - hard to get a 'read' on them. sitting in 5th and in a dogfight for CL spot and are in a real bad mess right now. Felipe in the doghouse and its creating a BIG distraction within the team. they were just THUMPED over the wknd by Napoli and are winless in 4 straight & now have Milan, Atalanta & Torino breathing down their a**es.  dunno their opponent but whomever they are playing probably offers decent value. 

IMO any Portuguese/Spanish side is worth taking a look at simply cuz those countries just seem to always take this seriously.

Duece' - those eastern euros & russians still on break. any noticeable angles with it being their first competitive match in months?
emduece PM emduece
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Posted: 2/12/2018 7:36:15 PM
Ok ill start with quick thoughts on the thursday matchups first

Astana/Sporting
Yess Astana is on my radar being they are in Kazakhstan. They have been a stingy team at home this year and the line seems too low for a sporting away win. Astana have only played 3 warmups while Sporting are in the middle of a tight campaign looking good in the standings in 3rd place but only 2points behind Porto and level with Benfica. Just by the line id say the draw and under with sporting moving on at home. 

AEK/ Dynamo Kyiv
Aek two points behind the leaders in second place and on a really good unbeaten streak. Dynamo looks bad during the break but they always dont take it serious. Their last win was the group stage when they beat partizan 3-1. Which is where id back them. At home. In Greece id reckon the best they could do is draw so leaning 1X but likely a pass.


emduece PM emduece
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Posted: 2/12/2018 7:59:25 PM
Nice/ Lokomotiv
While Nice are in no-mans land in Ligue 1 with three consecutive defeats after a decent home win against st.etienne, Lokomotiv have been very busy in their break, playing pretty solid teams in friendlies in preparation for this. Line is begging u to take nice but with the form theyre in i cant see how anyone can back them. Russian teams take these matches pretty serious and with another month until domestic starts id say they put all effort into this game and the return leg. Loko +.5 looks solid

Spartak/ Bilbao
this will be a slugfest i think as both play questionable defense sometimes. Bilbao has drawn 5 of their last 6 matches but a long trip to Otrkrytie arena might not bode well for them. With Spartak having been in UCL group play this year i think they know the importance of a home win here. Line suggest it as well. Same as loko where the teams still in european competitions have been preparing for these matches using the friendlies to try new tactics and hone what works well. 1X is what i think at the moment well see what lineups and prematch reports say.
emduece PM emduece
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Posted: 2/12/2018 9:14:23 PM
Zenit/ Celtic
This is the one that scares me the most. All of us here have a homer team and my betting history definitely gives away that my heart bleeds for the siniy beliy golubiy(blue white skyblue) Zenit usually does well on the road but playing at the most successful team from Scotland may be one of their most daunting tasks yet. Only thing that feels reassuring is the low quality of Celtics opponents and the fact that quality offenses do score on them. Zenit snatched away Zabalotniy from Khabarovsk and gave away shatov to Krasnodar so a nice backup striker addition while losing an extra midfielder isnt that bigba difference. Uhoh do i see myself being homered into taking the PK yet? Idk line seems a draw might play out. Last but not least im hearing Mancini might be interested in the Sqaudra Azzura topjob and id hate to see him go but no one would fault him for taking command of his countries program in preparation for a run at the Euro 2020 where italy will surely be out for blood.

TUESDAY
Zvezda/ CSKA Moskva
named during the times of the iron curtain, Zvezda is to Spartak as Partizan is to CSKA so this is a rivalry by association lol. Zvezdas biggest asset is the home crowd they have some insane fans. Their recent form looks unappetizing and CSKA have been hot in warmups scoring in bunches which is unusual for them. Getting Musa back is a big help as they basically played with no forwards all Autumn. Call me crazy but i have a conspiracy angle on this one... Zvezda's sponsor? None other than Gazprom.. shadier things have happened;) with CSKAs experience against top clubs and good track record of being organized against lesser opponents in these tourneys im locking in CSKA PK right here and now. A draw and away goal will be useful heading home for the second leg.
specimen24 PM specimen24
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Posted: 2/13/2018 3:30:31 AM
great stuff Duece     save me a bit of time.   agree with you on Astana, that is one of the clubs in the past 5 years whom have benefitted greatly from all the corporate monies/sponsorships and new ownership; they are a pretty decent team for this level. CP cant be too thrilled in making this trip.
Zenit is a nice price on the road but the draw looks about right.  more on Mancini later. 
ur absolutely right, Beograd is h*ll to visit.  their fans make Milans Ultras look like choir-boys.  and thats saying a LOT. 

ill get these Serie A clubs up if time permits tmrw. 
yorosan PM yorosan
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Posted: 2/14/2018 9:33:49 PM

After 4 high scoring CL games, let's see what happen in europa

Thanks for the insight!!!

chuffed PM chuffed
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Posted: 2/15/2018 8:03:28 AM
Loose and Duece excellent stuff mates
LooseNotLose PM LooseNotLose
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Posted: 2/15/2018 10:44:20 AM
Guys 

One that caught my eye today...Ostersunds v Gunners.  The home side beat PAOK, Galatsarray, Hertha, tied Bilbao and Malmö and have only dropped all three points once since June of 16.

Meanwhile Arsenal lost Giroud, Lacazette is injured and PEA is cup-tied.  +1 or even +1.25 at -110 looks good and +.5 at +190 is good value
—-

RaiderNation925 PM RaiderNation925
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Posted: 2/15/2018 10:47:11 AM
Good luck!! 
Shenanigans96 PM Shenanigans96
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Posted: 2/15/2018 11:18:39 AM

This thread delivers. 

Great input from all.

Loose...I’m w/ you on the Ostersunds/Arsenal match. Their road form hasn’t been great in Europa so far & this is Ostersunds Super Bowl. I love them on the spread & will fully own up to it if Arsenal smashes them :)


My biggest play for today is the over in Marseille. They’ve been goal machines lately & Braga could definitely grab one on the road so I think the over is a solid pick. Especially at -111 for over 2.75

Also leaning towards the over in Lyon/Villareal (-128 for over 2.5) but I’ve been burned by Lyon lately.

The over 2.75 at even money for Dortmund/Atalanta is tempting too but after reading some other threads I’m thinking I should go more towards the over in Celtic/Zenit


BOL everyone!

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