Line opened at Purdue -8 and has moved quickly to Purdue -10.(looks like public money)
At this time, this game looks like a classic “public pounding the favorite” situation.
78% of total bets on Purdue(edge to Nevada)
85% of total $$ wagered on Purdue(edge to Nevada)
81% of parlay action on Purdue (edge to Nevada)
I simulated this game 5000 times.The median score for all simulations was Purdue 38, Nevada 35. (edge to Nevada)
When I adjusted the projections to account for difference in returning production and for strength of schedule differences for both the Nevada offense and Nevada defense, the simulations still showed Purdue to be a winner but not a cover at 38 to 31. (edge still to Nevada)
Turnovers are generally random and are assumed to be unpredictable.
Even assuming a worst case scenario for Nevada and best case scenario for Purdue, the number still comes out to Purdue 41 to 31, a push at the current number of -10.
So we have a spot with the public clearly on Purdue (meaning edge to Nevada) and the simulations clearly on Nevada.2 out of 2.
I’m sure all the “eye test” crowd will be on Purdue but this point, it looks like Nevada has at least a 65% chance to cover the -10.
Line opened at Purdue -8 and has moved quickly to Purdue -10.(looks like public money)
At this time, this game looks like a classic “public pounding the favorite” situation.
78% of total bets on Purdue(edge to Nevada)
85% of total $$ wagered on Purdue(edge to Nevada)
81% of parlay action on Purdue (edge to Nevada)
I simulated this game 5000 times.The median score for all simulations was Purdue 38, Nevada 35. (edge to Nevada)
When I adjusted the projections to account for difference in returning production and for strength of schedule differences for both the Nevada offense and Nevada defense, the simulations still showed Purdue to be a winner but not a cover at 38 to 31. (edge still to Nevada)
Turnovers are generally random and are assumed to be unpredictable.
Even assuming a worst case scenario for Nevada and best case scenario for Purdue, the number still comes out to Purdue 41 to 31, a push at the current number of -10.
So we have a spot with the public clearly on Purdue (meaning edge to Nevada) and the simulations clearly on Nevada.2 out of 2.
I’m sure all the “eye test” crowd will be on Purdue but this point, it looks like Nevada has at least a 65% chance to cover the -10.
I am still trying to understand this better, so when the public is heavy on a team, what does that signal for you in your mind? I know you said "edge Nevada" but why?
I am still trying to understand this better, so when the public is heavy on a team, what does that signal for you in your mind? I know you said "edge Nevada" but why?
Basic contrarian handicapping. The public loses more than it wins when the number gets too one sided as in this case. The edge is NOT huge, probably around 52% but that is a good starting point for considering a possible game to play.
I do NOT think one can beat CFB with contrarian handicapping alone. Can't be done. But it can be a good place to start looking for games to play.
Vegas wins ( plus vig ) a lot of money on games just like this one because of the public pounding a double digit favorite, at a number that is not even close to the opener.
Basic contrarian handicapping. The public loses more than it wins when the number gets too one sided as in this case. The edge is NOT huge, probably around 52% but that is a good starting point for considering a possible game to play.
I do NOT think one can beat CFB with contrarian handicapping alone. Can't be done. But it can be a good place to start looking for games to play.
Vegas wins ( plus vig ) a lot of money on games just like this one because of the public pounding a double digit favorite, at a number that is not even close to the opener.
Basic contrarian handicapping. The public loses more than it wins when the number gets too one sided as in this case. The edge is NOT huge, probably around 52% but that is a good starting point for considering a possible game to play. I do NOT think one can beat CFB with contrarian handicapping alone. Can't be done. But it can be a good place to start looking for games to play. Vegas wins ( plus vig ) a lot of money on games just like this one because of the public pounding a double digit favorite, at a number that is not even close to the opener.
I am concerned about Nevada because of the talent gap between Big 10 and MWC. I have tried to account for this difference but it may not be enough. This would certainly be a weak point in my analysis that favors Nevada.
Basic contrarian handicapping. The public loses more than it wins when the number gets too one sided as in this case. The edge is NOT huge, probably around 52% but that is a good starting point for considering a possible game to play. I do NOT think one can beat CFB with contrarian handicapping alone. Can't be done. But it can be a good place to start looking for games to play. Vegas wins ( plus vig ) a lot of money on games just like this one because of the public pounding a double digit favorite, at a number that is not even close to the opener.
I am concerned about Nevada because of the talent gap between Big 10 and MWC. I have tried to account for this difference but it may not be enough. This would certainly be a weak point in my analysis that favors Nevada.
The question is also how much public money is coming in, in early to mid August? It’s not like this is a week 5 game.
My assumption is all the line moves this early are due to sharps or but action on one side. Hard to think Joey Public is in Vegas loading up on the Boilers on August 15
The question is also how much public money is coming in, in early to mid August? It’s not like this is a week 5 game.
My assumption is all the line moves this early are due to sharps or but action on one side. Hard to think Joey Public is in Vegas loading up on the Boilers on August 15
The question is also how much public money is coming in, in early to mid August? It’s not like this is a week 5 game. My assumption is all the line moves this early are due to sharps or but action on one side. Hard to think Joey Public is in Vegas loading up on the Boilers on August 15
I would say that would accurate in most situations. The key point here are those public consensus numbers that I posted. Including Parlay action, which is never ever square money, showing very heavy 80% of parlay bettors on the Favorite. At least that is my take on it.
The question is also how much public money is coming in, in early to mid August? It’s not like this is a week 5 game. My assumption is all the line moves this early are due to sharps or but action on one side. Hard to think Joey Public is in Vegas loading up on the Boilers on August 15
I would say that would accurate in most situations. The key point here are those public consensus numbers that I posted. Including Parlay action, which is never ever square money, showing very heavy 80% of parlay bettors on the Favorite. At least that is my take on it.
Personally, I don't think the sharp's are that sharp in week 1...they are only a little less clueless than joe public...Where sharp's get sharp is 3+ weeks into the season...I am not going to worry too much about line movement early in the season, unless their is a major injury and/or a paradigm shift in the strength and /or weakness of one or both teams...in a particular matchup...
Personally, I don't think the sharp's are that sharp in week 1...they are only a little less clueless than joe public...Where sharp's get sharp is 3+ weeks into the season...I am not going to worry too much about line movement early in the season, unless their is a major injury and/or a paradigm shift in the strength and /or weakness of one or both teams...in a particular matchup...
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