If one goes to predictiontracker.com, one can see the weekly predictions of approximately 20 to 25 modelers every week during football season.
If one goes back several years over 100's of games and compares the consensus line of the modelers to the mid week Vegas line, the Vegas line will beat them soundly over a decent number of plays. Also, the greater the difference in the two lines, the greater the win rate for the Vegas line.
So yes, it does appear to be true that the typical model consensus line cannot beat Vegas in the long run.
Where did the highest win rate occur?
Road Favorites won at a 54.5% rate
Road Dogs at 54.0%
Home Favorites break even at about 52%
Biggest loser? Home Dogs 49%
Play - Look for a difference of about 2 points between the mid week Vegas line and the model consensus and make sure it is road team.
Plays using this for week 1- Road Teams with a Vegas / Model difference of 2 or more are as follows:
If one goes to predictiontracker.com, one can see the weekly predictions of approximately 20 to 25 modelers every week during football season.
If one goes back several years over 100's of games and compares the consensus line of the modelers to the mid week Vegas line, the Vegas line will beat them soundly over a decent number of plays. Also, the greater the difference in the two lines, the greater the win rate for the Vegas line.
So yes, it does appear to be true that the typical model consensus line cannot beat Vegas in the long run.
Where did the highest win rate occur?
Road Favorites won at a 54.5% rate
Road Dogs at 54.0%
Home Favorites break even at about 52%
Biggest loser? Home Dogs 49%
Play - Look for a difference of about 2 points between the mid week Vegas line and the model consensus and make sure it is road team.
Plays using this for week 1- Road Teams with a Vegas / Model difference of 2 or more are as follows:
Thx ,love this type of angle/method as a filter to weed down those games that I'm already leaning one way or another. Have not seen this one though. Will try it , Thanks again
Thx ,love this type of angle/method as a filter to weed down those games that I'm already leaning one way or another. Have not seen this one though. Will try it , Thanks again
Thx ,love this type of angle/method as a filter to weed down those games that I'm already leaning one way or another. Have not seen this one though. Will try it , Thanks again
Note - the win rate for even the best group is only 54.5% so there is a lot of room for random variance to occur. I looked back over the last 10 years and the
best results occur from week 5 to week 9. Don't use as a serious method until week 5.
Thx ,love this type of angle/method as a filter to weed down those games that I'm already leaning one way or another. Have not seen this one though. Will try it , Thanks again
Note - the win rate for even the best group is only 54.5% so there is a lot of room for random variance to occur. I looked back over the last 10 years and the
best results occur from week 5 to week 9. Don't use as a serious method until week 5.
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