Said it at the time that taking OSU was just to establish a position with HC Meyer retiring -- knowing that the line would only go up and I could try to middle later with UW. It went up but not as much as I initially thought it might. Nonetheless, pretty much backing out of that play and hopefully it lands on exactly 6 or 7.
Said it at the time that taking OSU was just to establish a position with HC Meyer retiring -- knowing that the line would only go up and I could try to middle later with UW. It went up but not as much as I initially thought it might. Nonetheless, pretty much backing out of that play and hopefully it lands on exactly 6 or 7.
7800 characters..... Here's everything else. Pretty typical that I have some good ideas on the long shot parlays, but fall one game short.
FCS Championship Game:
NDSU -13.5 (0.5u)
Moneyline plays:
Arizona State +200 (0.1u to win 0.2u) LOSS
Duke ML +150 (0.1u to win 0.15u) WIN
Wake Forest FL +180 (0.1u to win 0.18u) WIN
Bowl / Playoff Parlays: (-0.15u)
Wake Forest +155 WIN, Duke +145 WIN, and San Diego State +140 LOSS (risking 0.05 to win 0.7u) LOSS
Wake Forest +155 WIN, Duke +145 WIN, San Diego State +140 LOSS, Florida +245 WIN, and North Dakota State (vs. Colgate) -2500 WIN (risking 0.1u to win 5.28u) LOSS
National Championship Futures:
Had to use two shops and I am eliminating the #3 & #4 teams as my strategy -- leads to about +0.3u if either Alabama or Clemson wins it all.
7800 characters..... Here's everything else. Pretty typical that I have some good ideas on the long shot parlays, but fall one game short.
FCS Championship Game:
NDSU -13.5 (0.5u)
Moneyline plays:
Arizona State +200 (0.1u to win 0.2u) LOSS
Duke ML +150 (0.1u to win 0.15u) WIN
Wake Forest FL +180 (0.1u to win 0.18u) WIN
Bowl / Playoff Parlays: (-0.15u)
Wake Forest +155 WIN, Duke +145 WIN, and San Diego State +140 LOSS (risking 0.05 to win 0.7u) LOSS
Wake Forest +155 WIN, Duke +145 WIN, San Diego State +140 LOSS, Florida +245 WIN, and North Dakota State (vs. Colgate) -2500 WIN (risking 0.1u to win 5.28u) LOSS
National Championship Futures:
Had to use two shops and I am eliminating the #3 & #4 teams as my strategy -- leads to about +0.3u if either Alabama or Clemson wins it all.
Wake Forest +155 WIN, Duke +145 WIN, and San Diego State +140 LOSS (risking 0.05 to win 0.7u) LOSS
Wake Forest +155 WIN, Duke +145 WIN, San Diego State +140 LOSS, Florida +245 WIN, and North Dakota State (vs. Colgate) -2500 WIN (risking 0.1u to win 5.28u) LOSS
National Championship Futures:
Had to use two shops and I am eliminating the #3 & #4 teams as my strategy -- leads to about +0.3u if either Alabama or Clemson wins it all.
Wake Forest +155 WIN, Duke +145 WIN, and San Diego State +140 LOSS (risking 0.05 to win 0.7u) LOSS
Wake Forest +155 WIN, Duke +145 WIN, San Diego State +140 LOSS, Florida +245 WIN, and North Dakota State (vs. Colgate) -2500 WIN (risking 0.1u to win 5.28u) LOSS
National Championship Futures:
Had to use two shops and I am eliminating the #3 & #4 teams as my strategy -- leads to about +0.3u if either Alabama or Clemson wins it all.
i remember reading a post one time that you are 66% or better on games you bet a unit or more. I always pay attention to those plays but personally was leaning over. Care to share any additional thoughts on NC under 61?
Sorry for the delayed response. Short version is I think both defenses do enough to contain the opposing offenses and keep it under. Yes, Clemson's secondary has been scrutinized a lot by analysts in the last week leading up to this game, but I trust that DC Venables gets the most out of this unit on Monday. After allowing so many passing yards vs. South Carolina, all they've done the last two games is make adjustments and hold each of their next two opponents to their lowest Total Offense yards (or tied for lowest in the case of Pitt) of the entire season. And I think this will be the most challenging game for Tua all season. I think his cryptic comments about the ankle in the on-field interview right after the semi-final win were a moment of true honesty. Then he left the field with his foot in the boot I read (a precaution only?? - are we all buying that). I think he's been "coached up" on how to respond to the media this week about his ankle. I am certain Clemson will make him test it early with pressure. Alabama will still be balanced on offense. I just don't see them putting up real big numbers against this defense (first team to 30 points wins?). On the other side when Clemson has the ball, Trevor Lawrence is the wild card for me. He's going to be a great pro for years to come, but he's still a freshman. Will he be able to pick on certain players in the Alabama secondary like OU did last week? I am really not sure. I think he'll have good/great moments, but how consistent will that be if he's pressured? Similar to Clemson after the SC game, Alabama is working hard to clean that up this week if they can.
I think it's a one possession game that goes back and forth and there should be more field possession battles and punts than these two offenses are accustomed to. And the field turf issues (replaced last week) and the 10 day weather forecast when I made the wager only added to my belief that the Under is the play (at the time, forecast was for rain every day, but lower % on game day).
i remember reading a post one time that you are 66% or better on games you bet a unit or more. I always pay attention to those plays but personally was leaning over. Care to share any additional thoughts on NC under 61?
Sorry for the delayed response. Short version is I think both defenses do enough to contain the opposing offenses and keep it under. Yes, Clemson's secondary has been scrutinized a lot by analysts in the last week leading up to this game, but I trust that DC Venables gets the most out of this unit on Monday. After allowing so many passing yards vs. South Carolina, all they've done the last two games is make adjustments and hold each of their next two opponents to their lowest Total Offense yards (or tied for lowest in the case of Pitt) of the entire season. And I think this will be the most challenging game for Tua all season. I think his cryptic comments about the ankle in the on-field interview right after the semi-final win were a moment of true honesty. Then he left the field with his foot in the boot I read (a precaution only?? - are we all buying that). I think he's been "coached up" on how to respond to the media this week about his ankle. I am certain Clemson will make him test it early with pressure. Alabama will still be balanced on offense. I just don't see them putting up real big numbers against this defense (first team to 30 points wins?). On the other side when Clemson has the ball, Trevor Lawrence is the wild card for me. He's going to be a great pro for years to come, but he's still a freshman. Will he be able to pick on certain players in the Alabama secondary like OU did last week? I am really not sure. I think he'll have good/great moments, but how consistent will that be if he's pressured? Similar to Clemson after the SC game, Alabama is working hard to clean that up this week if they can.
I think it's a one possession game that goes back and forth and there should be more field possession battles and punts than these two offenses are accustomed to. And the field turf issues (replaced last week) and the 10 day weather forecast when I made the wager only added to my belief that the Under is the play (at the time, forecast was for rain every day, but lower % on game day).
......I still need to circle back and update this thread for the National Championship game. Some day.... been busy with work and coaching and then sick as a dog for a couple days.
Never too early to start looking ahead to 2019! I'll start an offseason thread eventually. Took my Kyler Murray Heisman winning $ and put in a couple positions today with Tua and T. Lawrence vs. the field. Long shot last year worked out. One of the two favs wins this year. Also, took it because Tua went up to +500 today.
Tua T. to win the Heisman +500 (0.3u to win 1.5u)
T. Lawrence to win the Heisman +350 (0.2u to win 0.7u)
......I still need to circle back and update this thread for the National Championship game. Some day.... been busy with work and coaching and then sick as a dog for a couple days.
Never too early to start looking ahead to 2019! I'll start an offseason thread eventually. Took my Kyler Murray Heisman winning $ and put in a couple positions today with Tua and T. Lawrence vs. the field. Long shot last year worked out. One of the two favs wins this year. Also, took it because Tua went up to +500 today.
Tua T. to win the Heisman +500 (0.3u to win 1.5u)
T. Lawrence to win the Heisman +350 (0.2u to win 0.7u)
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