I agree with Thorpe, there's not any value. 25/1 means Michigan has a 1 / (25 + 1) or 1 in 26 chance of winning the title. That comes out to 3.8%. I estimated the true odds to be 57/1, and I was being favorable towards Michigan with a lot of the lines. Closer to 80/1 is probably more accurate.
Below are win probabilities for each game based on estimated spreads.
MSU 70.3%, based on current spread of Michigan -7
PSU 66.4% - estimated spread of PSU + 6. ESPN FPI has the teams even, I gave Michigan 3 for home field plus another 3 since the public has been all over Michigan
Rutgers 100%
Indiana 98%
Ohio State 34.9% - game is in Columbus, ESPN FPI has OSU 2.6 points better. Add 3 for home field and call it OSU by 5.5
B10 Championship 85.1% assuming Michigan is favored by 14
Semifinal 42.6%, assuming Michigan is a 3 point dog.
Final 29.7%, assuming Michigan is a 7 point dog against Alabama
Multiply the percentages together and it's 1.7%. That indicates the true odds should be around 57/1 on Michigan to win it all.
You can change the spreads and recalculate if you disagree with any. Use the link below to get the win probabilities.
https://www.boydsbets.com/college-football-spread-to-moneyline-conversion/
I agree with Thorpe, there's not any value. 25/1 means Michigan has a 1 / (25 + 1) or 1 in 26 chance of winning the title. That comes out to 3.8%. I estimated the true odds to be 57/1, and I was being favorable towards Michigan with a lot of the lines. Closer to 80/1 is probably more accurate.
Below are win probabilities for each game based on estimated spreads.
MSU 70.3%, based on current spread of Michigan -7
PSU 66.4% - estimated spread of PSU + 6. ESPN FPI has the teams even, I gave Michigan 3 for home field plus another 3 since the public has been all over Michigan
Rutgers 100%
Indiana 98%
Ohio State 34.9% - game is in Columbus, ESPN FPI has OSU 2.6 points better. Add 3 for home field and call it OSU by 5.5
B10 Championship 85.1% assuming Michigan is favored by 14
Semifinal 42.6%, assuming Michigan is a 3 point dog.
Final 29.7%, assuming Michigan is a 7 point dog against Alabama
Multiply the percentages together and it's 1.7%. That indicates the true odds should be around 57/1 on Michigan to win it all.
You can change the spreads and recalculate if you disagree with any. Use the link below to get the win probabilities.
https://www.boydsbets.com/college-football-spread-to-moneyline-conversion/
I think they take UM. They'll have better wins (Ohio State, Penn State, B10 champ) and the public / media loves Michigan, Harbaugh, etc.
For what its worth, I think OU would beat UM. But I don't see a scenario where Michigan wins out and doesn't get in the playoff.
I think they take UM. They'll have better wins (Ohio State, Penn State, B10 champ) and the public / media loves Michigan, Harbaugh, etc.
For what its worth, I think OU would beat UM. But I don't see a scenario where Michigan wins out and doesn't get in the playoff.
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