I'm basing my guestimations on relative strength of teams, not using an mathematical power ratings or the need for Vegas to balance action. In doing so last week, it looked like you'd have been a winner going against the value of what I put out. In other words if I had team A as a 7 point dog and they came a 4 point dog, you would have done well taking the 4 point dog....we'll see how that continues into the season. Las Vegas will deliberately make a line to get bettors off of team A and to entice action on their opponent, team B.
There was one particular instance when the line opened at -2' and I had that team at -1 and one of the posters said that he and his friends saw that the line should be -4, which is where the line moved to initially and then dropped to -3, the Lynx/Storm game.
This thread is meant to be a discussion starter for this week's games, and helpful in our endeavors to beat the books. The vast majority of this thread's posters are cordial and well wishing of others, which is great, remember we are not competing against each other, but against Vegas.
The "you are stupid because you don't see things the way I see them" comments don't often happen here as they do in other forums.
If your perceptions are different than mine or the majority, then use that to your advantage to make money.
Home team listed first.
June 6
Dallas Wings +4 Washington Mystics
San Antonio Stars +4 Seattle Storm
Los Angeles Sparks -12 Chicago Sky
June 7
New York Liberty -6- Atlanta Dream
Indiana Fever +3 Phoenix Mercury
June 9
Washington Mystics +4- Minnesota Lynx
Indiana Fever +3 Seattle Storm
Dallas Wings +4 Los Angeles Sparks
Dogs are now 1-6 ATS in June with the Liberty covering on Sunday, OVER is 6-1 or 5-2 depending on the line you received in the Liberty game. We're seeing unprecedented OVERs in the NBA playoffs too. I'll watch that trend with interest and for me personally I would not buck the OVER trend until I'm convinced it is completed. If this OVER trend continues this week, I might be convinced to ride the trend.
For the past 3 or 4 seasons in the W, the trend has been underdogs early in the season and favorites late covering....not so far this season.