Kings vs Oilers Game 1 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Not Even a Band of Kings Can Stop McDavid

The puck finally drops on the NHL postseason tonight as the Edmonton Oilers and Los Angeles Kings face off at Rogers Place in a rematch of last year’s first-round war.

It’ll be a battle of strength vs. strength as Edmonton is the NHL’s highest-scoring team (3.96 GPG), while the Kings were one of the stingiest defensive clubs from February onwards, giving up just 2.48 GPG.

Will Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl get off to a quick start, or can Los Angeles slow down the league’s top scorers? Let’s discuss in our Kings vs. Oilers NHL picks for Monday, April 17.

Kings vs Oilers Game 1 odds

Kings vs Oilers series odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of April 17, 2023.

Kings vs Oilers Game 1 predictions

Last year’s rendition of the Los Angeles Kings vs. Edmonton Oilers was one of the more exciting matchups of the first round, with Edmonton eventually triumphing in seven games thanks to superhuman efforts from Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.

McDavid, as you probably know, absolutely torched the league this season with 64 goals and 153 points. The Oilers' captain didn’t necessarily dominate the Kings this time around, though, recording two goals and an assist in four meetings with no multi-point outings.

Nevertheless, McDavid rolls into the playoffs on another hot streak as he’s found the score sheet in 16 straight games while amassing 29 points and nine multi-point outings over that span.

Can the Kings slow him down? Los Angeles had a stretch of elite defensive play from about February through March — though the Kings did regress in the final week of the regular season going 2-3-0 while surrendering 3.00 GPG during that span — including a 3-1 loss to the Oilers on April 4. 

If L.A. is going to keep McDavid from repeating last year’s postseason performance, it’ll likely take a heroic effort in net. Joonas Korpisalo, who likely gets the start, has had a rejuvenation between the pipes since being acquired at the trade deadline. Korpisalo posted a .921 SV% and a stingy 2.13 GAA while going 7-3-1 with the Kings this year.

Still, I don’t see Korpisalo (or almost any goaltender) stopping a red-hot McDavid in Game 1 of the playoffs. Given his form to close out the regular season, I’m looking for another multi-point outing from the league’s leading scorer to kick off his Cup run.

My best bet: McDavid Over 1.5 points (-175 at BetMGM)

Kings vs Oilers Game 1 moneyline analysis

The Oilers begin the series as the clear favorite, opening at -176 at home in Game 1, while their edge bumped up to -200 or even higher at some books by this morning. Though you aren’t getting great odds, I think the Oilers are the safe pick until proven otherwise.

Edmonton has certainly had its struggles this season, primarily with keeping the puck out of its own net. Jack Campbell had a rough year during his first season with the Oilers, but we’re likely to see Stuart Skinner get the call for Game 1. Skinner finished with a solid .914 SV% to go with a 2.75 GAA in 50 games — not world-beater numbers, but enough to get the job done behind an elite offense.

That offense carried the Oilers to an incredible 18-2-1 run from the beginning of March to the end of the season — the best record in the NHL over that span. On top of that, Edmonton has generally played Los Angeles well, going 6-4 in the last 10 meetings (including last year’s playoffs) and 12-5 in the last 17 matchups at Rogers Place.

The Kings come into this series dinged up, missing two key offensive pieces and a couple of 20-goal scorers in Kevin Fiala and Gabriel Vilardi — another reason to side with the Oilers tonight.

Kings vs Oilers Game 1 Over/Under analysis

The total for Game 1 opened at 6.5 goals with most books holding steady there as of this morning. Given what we’ve historically seen in this matchup, I’m liking the Under tonight.

The Oilers will do their best to make this a run-and-gun affair, but they haven’t actually played a ton of high-scoring games of late, with the Under going 5-1-1 in Edmonton’s last seven contests. Meanwhile, the Under cashed in six of Los Angeles’ last nine games to close out the season.

Looking at their head-to-head history, you might expect to see lots of goals given how many points McDavid and Draisaitl put up in last year’s series, but that isn’t actually the case. The Under went 4-3 in the series, while it’s cashed in five of the last six meetings between the two clubs.

McDavid and Draisaitl could very well put up some points, but there may not be a whole lot of scoring overall if the Kings can execute their game plan.

Kings vs Oilers betting trend to know

The Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Edmonton. Find more NHL betting trends for Kings vs Oilers.

Kings vs Oilers Game 1 game info

Kings vs Oilers Game 1 injuries

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