Do not overreact to Game 1s. Doing so ignores an entire season’s evidence. Yes, the playoffs are a different animal, but that reality comes with time, not in the first week.
Lean into the trends we have trusted for months, not anomalies that popped up over the weekend. When looking at the two games on tonight's slate and making your NBA picks, remember what you saw all season.
Let’s build a parlay across those two games for April 24, and to boost its value, let’s include a counter-intuitive pairing in the Western Conference showcase.
NBA playoffs parlay picks April 24
- Tatum Over 8.5 rebounds, Ingram Under 19.5 points, Pelicans-Thunder Over 211.5 (+640 at FanDuel)
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Best NBA parlay picks for Wednesday
NBA parlay pick 1
Jayson Tatum Over 8.5 rebounds
Brandon Ingram Under 19.5 points
Pelicans-Thunder Over 211.5
Jayson Tatum grabbed at least nine rebounds in 29 of his 74 games this season. That is not an overwhelming rate, but it sets the baseline for what he then trots out in the postseason. In the 2023 playoffs, Tatum grabbed at least nine rebounds in 15 of 20 games.
Many like to criticize Tatum for his postseason performances, but that is largely based on ring culture. While his Boston Celtics have never won it all, Tatum performs in the postseason, filling a stat sheet like few others.
That continued on Sunday with a triple-double. Laughing at his 1 of 8 shooting from beyond the arc misses the fact that Tatum scored 23 points, grabbed 10 rebounds, and handed out 10 assists. His postseason effort, which is most replicable and consistent on the glass, cannot be knocked.
Doubting Brandon Ingram’s points might come across as misguided. Pointing out that he scored just 12 points on 17 shots in Game 1 would run counter to this parlay’s ethos of not overreacting to Game 1 results.
But the actual concern surrounds Ingram's health. He has averaged 15 points in his four games back from a bone bruise in his knee, clearing 20 points in only the final Play-In game. Ingram has shot 25-of-58 (43.1%) in those games. Until he is consistently getting his buckets, Ingram the traditional scorer deserves extra caution.
Combining an Ingram fade with the Over in the Pelicans-Thunder Game 2 boosts a parlay’s payout, but the hobbled forward will not need to score to propel points in Oklahoma City.
Game 1’s total was set at 216.5, and books dropping Game 2’s total to 211.5 is an overreaction to that 94-92 thriller.
In the final six weeks of the regular season, New Orleans got to the free-throw line at the eighth-best rate in the NBA while Oklahoma City was 14th. In other words, both shot plenty from the line. Meanwhile, the Thunder gave up free throws at the ninth-highest rate in the NBA, yet the Pelicans took just nine in Game 1.
Even in the playoffs — the six series with two games played have averaged 43.1 free throws per game, compared to this Game 1’s 22 — that was a quiet night from the officials.
Logic and precedent both say tonight will feature more free throws, and that alone should raise this final score more toward what was expected before Game 1’s clunker.
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