Missouri is on schedule to launch a legal market for sports betting next month. However, the reality is that there is a technically legal form of sports betting available in the Show-Me State already: federally regulated prediction markets.
- Missouri is preparing to launch state-regulated sports betting on Dec. 1, even as federally regulated prediction markets already offer de facto sports wagering in the state.
- Regulators have so far taken a cautious, wait-and-see approach toward prediction markets while court battles elsewhere continue and operators avoid offering those products in Missouri.
- The state may revisit its sports betting framework in future legislative sessions, leaving open the possibility of new rules aimed at prediction markets.
Those prediction markets, such as Crypto.com, Kalshi, and their partners, are offering de facto sports wagering via event contracts. The products allow prediction market traders to bet “yes” or “no” on a variety of event outcomes, including NFL, NBA, and NCAA games.
This makes prediction markets competitors to state-regulated sportsbooks, such as the nine that Missouri plans to launch on Dec. 1. Not everyone loves that.
In some states, regulators have pushed back, telling the prediction market operators their products are a little too much like online sportsbooks that have been authorized by the local gaming commissions. Several court battles are raging as a result, with no timetable for when a final determination about the legality of sports event contracts will come.
Latest projected Missouri online sportsbooks for Dec. 1 launch:
— Ryan Butler (@ButlerBets) November 11, 2025
bet365
BetMGM
Caesars
Circa
DraftKings
Fanatics
FanDuel
theScore Bet
Underdog
Missouri has yet to formally wade into the prediction market wars. Whether it will once there are state-regulated sportsbooks up and running, or there is further clarity about the legality of sports event contracts, could be another story. For now, though, the state's sports betting regulator is waiting for the courts to clear things up before getting into any costly legal or regulatory battles.
The executive director of the Missouri Gaming Commission (MGC) spoke on a panel in October at the Global Gaming Expo (G2E) in Las Vegas. Prediction markets were a major topic of discussion during the massive gaming conference, and MGC executive director Michael Leara was asked for his thoughts.
While Leara had some personal reservations about prediction markets, given his experience working in the financial industry, he said the state was “being very cautious” about its approach to prediction markets. Missouri, he noted, does not have a law or regulation that addresses the federally regulated exchanges.
Leara also noted that some of the operators and licensees coming into Missouri had already given the commission notice that they'll be dabbling in prediction markets. Underdog, for example, is in line to launch state-regulated sports betting in Missouri, but also offers prediction markets via a partnership with Crypto.com.
DraftKings and FanDuel have recently outlined their plans to launch prediction markets in the U.S. as well, which will steer clear of states where they hold online sports betting licenses, such as Missouri.
“Until this makes its way through the court system … I think there's some time ahead of us before Missouri takes a position either statutorily or regulatorily,” on prediction markets, Leara said at G2E.
Speaking with Covers by phone this week, Leara confirmed that this is still Missouri’s approach. The gaming commission already has its hands full with trying to launch statewide online sports betting, and will wait and see what the courts ultimately say about prediction markets.
However, Leara did state that the MGC will look unfavorably upon licensees that are found to be operating illegally in Missouri or other jurisdictions.
“We’re keeping a close eye on this,” he said.
At this point, though, any Missouri licensee that may offer prediction markets will probably aim to keep their sports event contracts clear of the state. Otherwise, they could find themselves with a very unhappy state regulator.
"Our launch strategy has been developed in close consultation with state regulators and tribal authorities, resulting in a tailored, state-specific approach that enables us to launch in those states where no local regulation exists," said Peter Jackson, CEO of FanDuel-owner Flutter, in a letter to shareholders this week. "At launch, FanDuel Predicts will offer sports markets in states without a current sports betting regulatory framework. Sports markets will also be restricted to non-tribal lands."
Laying out the law
So Missouri, for the time being at least, will be an observer of prediction markets, albeit one that could take action if sports event contracts are declared definitively illegal and yet are still offered by its licensees. The state’s new sportsbooks also have to wrest customers away from other pre-existing forms of sports betting in the state, such as those offered by operators based offshore or using the sweepstakes model.
It is possible the Missouri legislature could tinker with the state’s sports betting framework. Whether they do, including in the state’s 2026 legislative session, remains to be seen. Whether lawmakers put prediction markets in their crosshairs is TBD as well.
The Missouri sports betting ballot measure approved by voters in November 2024 defines "sports wagering" as "wagering on professional or collegiate athletic, sporting, and other competitive events and awards involving human participants including, but not limited to, esports, or any other events as approved by the Commission."
“The term sports wagering shall include, but not be limited to, bets or wagers made on: portions of athletic and sporting events or on the individual statistics of professional or collegiate athletes in a sporting event or compilation of sporting events,” the definition adds.
The exceptions to that definition are a "fantasy sports contest," props on players involved in a game in which a Missouri college or university is playing, and youth or high school events.
However, a subsequent section of the measure says that, “notwithstanding any other provision of law … the general assembly may enact laws consistent with this section."
