Prediction platform Kalshi has accepted close to $4 million in wagers for the Thursday Night Football matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants.
The $3.9-million total was part of more than $9 million in contracts that had been purchased across all NFL Week 6 games as of Thursday afternoon.
Key Takeaways
- Kalshi is offering users better value than several major sportsbooks.
- The TNF matchup is the most popular game of the week.
- Kalshi released same-game parlays for sports contracts two weeks ago.
The prime-time showdown between the Giants and Eagles had received more than twice as much money as any other contest, though that is influenced by the Thursday kick-off.
Kalshi users are able to purchase contracts for the Eagles to win the matchup for 79 cents based on the platform’s belief they have a 78% chance to emerge victorious. Using implied probability, that translates to about -375 moneyline odds.
That’s significantly different from what leading sportsbooks have. ESPN BET has the reigning Super Bowl champions at -450, while bet365 and Fanatics have them at -425. FanDuel has the closest odds value at -370.
On the flip side, Kalshi’s prognosticators can purchase contracts for the Giants to win for 22 cents based on their 22% chance at victory. That translates to +355 implied odds, which are better than at ESPN BET (+340), Fanatics (+330), bet365 (+325), and FanDuel (+295).
Essentially, the only book mentioned with more favorable odds for the Eagles to win is FanDuel, which beats Kalshi by five points of value. However, Kalshi has more value than every book for the Giants to win, including 60 value points over FanDuel.
Popular picks and futures
The most-bet game Sunday is the Cincinnati Bengals’ matchup with the Green Bay Packers. Kalshi users traded $1.6 million worth of contracts for Joe Flacco’s debut on his third AFC North team against a Packers squad coming off of a bye week.
The only other matchup close to $1 million in trading volume is a Week 1 rematch from a couple of seasons ago as the Detroit Lions visit the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead. A total of $877,980 have been risked on whether the Chiefs will fall to 2-4 or knock off the red-hot visitors.
Looking to the end of the season, Kalshi has seen $19.6 million in transactions related to Super Bowl futures contracts. The Buffalo Bills have the steepest price at 17 cents, which translates to about +488 odds, while the Lions and Eagles are available for 12 cents (+733 implied odds), and the Packers and Chiefs are available for 9 cents (+1,011 implied odds).
The Bills are also heavy favorites to win the AFC at 31 cents (+223 implied odds). The Chiefs are next at 18 cents (+455 implied odds), while the Los Angeles Chargers and Baltimore Ravens can be purchased for 10 cents (+900). The Indianapolis Colts have shot up to 9 cents (+1,011 implied odds) following their hot start to the year.
On the other side of the bracket, the Lions and Eagles are level at 21 cents (+376 implied odds). The Packers round out the top tier at 19 cents (+426 implied odds) before the Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 9 cents (+1,011 implied odds).
Kalshi unveils same-game parlays
Kalshi rolled out same-game parlays for its sports contracts for the first time a couple weeks ago.
Customers can only combine legs from the same game into one parlay. However, these odds appear to be more profitable than those advertised by other sportsbooks. X user @BunchuBets highlighted the difference between Kalshi and DraftKings, showing they could get their +750 sportsbook odds improved to +1,011.
Kalshi and other prediction platforms remain a controversial topic. State gaming regulators believe prediction markets operate as unlicensed sportsbooks, while the platforms argue they are in compliance with the Futures Commodities Trading Commission and therefore should be allowed to offer sports contracts.
