Heading into Thursday’s first NFL preseason game of the year, an expected group of favorites are seeing the bulk of the action in the Lombardi Trophy winner futures market.
Key takeaways
- Bettors love the favorites in the Super Bowl winner market so far, with the Detroit Lions generating plenty of interest and a big wager at BetMGM.
- The biggest liabilities are teams with much greater odds of claiming the NFL’s championship.
- The Indianapolis Colts are the least-bet team heading into the preseason.
According to updated data BetMGM released Tuesday, the Detroit Lions, Buffalo Bills, and Philadelphia Eagles saw the highest percentage of bets and money so far.
“Bettors are supporting the favorites to win the Super Bowl,” BetMGM Senior Trading Manager Christian Cipollini said. “Nearly 50% of all handle is on the Lions, Bills, Eagles, and Ravens to lift the Lombardi Trophy.”
At BetMGM, the Bills, Eagles, and Baltimore Ravens are all tied as favorites with +700 odds. The Lions are behind the Kansas City Chiefs (+800) with +1,000 odds.
Detroit has a market-high 10.8% of the bets and 13.6% of the handle. One BetMGM player already put down $54,000 on the Lions to win the Super Bowl with a $545,000 payout.
Buffalo is right there with 13.2% of the money, with Philadelphia third at 12.5%. The percentages drop off from there, with Baltimore, tied with Kansas City as favorites to capture the AFC title, getting 7.8% of the handle and 7.3% of the tickets. The Chiefs and Washington Commanders both saw under 7% of the money.
ESPN BET recently reported similar numbers. The Eagles are on top with 17.9% of the handle, followed by the Bills (12.9%), Ravens (11.1%), Lions (10.2%), and Chiefs (8.3%).
In what could be an anomaly, the Pittsburgh Steelers, veteran quarterback Aaron Rodgers' new team, were HardRock Bet's most popular SuperBowl favorites recently.
There’s a chance
However, none of the teams listed near the top in odds are BetMGM's biggest liabilities. The Las Vegas Raiders enter new head coach Pete Carroll’s first season with +10,000 odds to win the Big Game. The 2.1% of bets and 1.7% of money at those long odds make them the biggest liability.
Next is the New York Giants, who saw 2% of the tickets and 0.9% of the handle with +20,000 odds. Only the New Orleans Saints and Cleveland Browns have longer odds to win the Super Bowl.
The Minnesota Vikings are the championship market's third biggest liability. Behind new quarterback J.J. McCarthy, the NFC North squad received 3.2% of the tickets and 4% of the money with +2,500 odds.
Other end of the spectrum
While it may be easy to guess the popular teams bettors think will win it all, the least-picked squads aren’t the ones with the worst odds. The Indianapolis Colts (+10,000) are the least-bet team by handle to clinch the Lombardi Trophy, with 0.1% of the money, and are tied with the Jacksonville Jaguars (+8,000) with a league-low 0.5% of wagers. The Atlanta Falcons (+8,000) and Miami Dolphins (+8,000) are also among teams with the lowest bet percentages.
Nine teams had less than 1% of the tickets, while 15 franchises took less than 1% of the money. In data provided last week, BetMGM reported the Saints, Giants, and Browns were the most-bet teams in the fewest wins market, but none are in the bottom six of the least-bet squads in the Super Bowl winner market.
