Consensus Betting

Does anyone here allow consensus percentages to sway their bets? I could see some bettors fading the public, while others might follow them...What do people think is best?

For example, last night the CAVS vs Wizards....When I first saw the line I thought Cavs as an easy win immediately...However, so did about 70% of the rest of people.  Once I noticed this, I thought about either laying off he game completely or taking the Wizards because of the overwhelming support for the Cavs spread.  Unfortunately, I went against my better judgment and backed the Cavs (that didn't work out very well for me)

Now, had I gone against the consensus favorite, I would have been fine. How often do you believe this is the case? I have heard of "fading the public" but how often does that actually work?

How about the NCAAF Bowl game tommorow? 78% of people are going for Central Michigan...does that mean it is a good play or perhaps the wrong play?

Also, the fact that the consensus percentages on sites like this and others are not based on real money...are they reliable?

Perhaps it is best to just cap a game on your own and not even bother with the consensus numbers?

Would anyone care to discuss this topic with me or provide some insight?

BOL to all

Hmm, I thought at least one person would have something to say about this...Buehler? Buehler?

It's all the same. If the public likes a game 80%, it's a 50-50 shot of hitting on the publics side. The hard part is finding the games that the public is correct on.

I have the "look outside the box" theory.
I tell people, when you look at a line when it's first released. If it looks to good to be true, it usually is!

For example, the Lakers where favored by 2 points yesterday. The Celtics have the best record in the NBA, they beat the Lakers in the finals last year, they also had the best starting record in the history of the NBA. You would automatically think that the line is in the Celtics favor, But when you look outside the box, you see that the Lakers are a good bet! So in that example you should go against your instinct, and bet the Lakers.

This example does not happen a lot, when it does, it's usually money!

This comes up every season multiple times, you might as well flip a coin. Because in the end it will be a 50-50 split. 

Thanks for the input guys...Yeah I think the most important thing I can take out of all those responses is that allowing the public perception to effect your own thoughts on a game is foolish...especially like eagleshot said, "if it looks too easy, then it most likely is" and that is when most of the public goes one side. (Like my previous example - Wizards vs Cavs last night)

However, beernut made an excellent point, when one side is bet on heavily it usually moves the line alot and many times taking the opposite side of the public in that case is the way to go...For example, tonights College Bowl game...Line opened @ 61 and the over was bet so heavily it is now at 70 on my book and as much as 70.5 at others....I am not playing this O/U but if I had to pick one, I would take UNDER 70  - Based on the line movement due to public consensus



BEERNUTS, how reliable are the numbers on Scoresandodds?

The age old thing is to fade the Wagerline consensus of anything that is 80% or more.  But again you will end up seeing a split on down the road.

Lippsman,

I have checked out that website, but are the numbers there that much more reliable than those on Wagerline?

Also, is there a place that gives the consensus numbers for O/U