I just really like this price. They just know how to win this tournament and city is perpetually snakebitten. Maybe they breakthrough this year, but at +320 this just seems like a great line for a team clearly capable of scoring going into the bernabeu down 1.
The way I see it if city gets conservative that isn’t really their game and it sets them up for another disappointment and if they play an open game well then sure they’re a favorite, but again +320 seems like great value
But of course maybe I’m overlooking something. Thoughts?
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I just really like this price. They just know how to win this tournament and city is perpetually snakebitten. Maybe they breakthrough this year, but at +320 this just seems like a great line for a team clearly capable of scoring going into the bernabeu down 1.
The way I see it if city gets conservative that isn’t really their game and it sets them up for another disappointment and if they play an open game well then sure they’re a favorite, but again +320 seems like great value
But of course maybe I’m overlooking something. Thoughts?
I was going to post something very similar on Real Madrid's value, so I'm glad you've started this discussion off and will share my thinking.
It's interesting how much I've gone 180 on this and I hope like you I'm not overthinking this. At first when I saw this matchup I was convinced that City would cruise past Real Madrid with little fuss. The main reasons being that I'd watched them somehow be completely outplayed by a PSG team I never really rated and that have kind of been a shambles all season, despite their Ligue 1 title. I was then convinced Chelsea would get past Real but they seemed to hit a rough patch of form, lose the 1st leg at home but then almost pull it out of the fire at the Bernabeau. It all equated to a Real team that were there for the taking in my mind, but after that 1st leg and some further thinking and research, now I'm not so sure.
Firstly, Man City's mentality has always been something that has tripped them up at the final stages of this competition. Perhaps getting over that hurdle last season has helped them, but then some of the mistakes they made in the 1st leg had all those memories of past failures come flooding back. I also look at their away performance at the Estadio Metropolitano in the last round and it was far from convincing. Yes they didn't need to win, but apart from Gundogan's chance that hit the post, they created very little and were under pressure the entire 2nd half. If Correa was more clinical it could easily have been 1 a piece and in extra time and penalties where you'd probably favour Atleti with momentum on their side. Real are clearly a more potent team than Atleti, so if it comes down to a game where City can't bury it early then Real showed against PSG and Chelsea that they can cease the moment if it presents itself. I also think you can be somewhat forgiving of their performance against Chelsea as they clearly ceded the initiative to Chelsea thinking that they had enough of an advantage to protect at home. Given they are behind in the tie I don't think they'll make that same mistake again.
Digging through City's results this season in the UCL it struck me how poor they've been in their away games:
PSG 2-0 Loss C.Brugge 1-5 Win RB Leipzig 2-1 Loss Sporting 0-5 Win Atleti 0-0 Draw
A record of just 2-1-2 (Wins-Draws-Losses) and both wins came against teams that based on UEFA's club coefficient calculation are ranked 28th and 43rd respectively. I'm sure there are better ways to measure the strength of opposition, but regardless it gives you a good indication of how below average City have been away from home this season.
So I certainly agree that Real Madrid offer value here, but by no means is it a slam dunk play. After all, Real Madrid have their limitations with an ageing midfield and questionable defensive line. However, I think if Ancelotti can somehow get this game to be 0-0 or 1-1 going into the 2nd half and it starts playing out like the last round where Atleti were patient and pushed hard in the later stages only to come up short, I'd be confident that Real could come over the top of a nervous City team hanging on to their 1 goal advantage. So perhaps a Man City HT/FT play as cover may be worth consideration for those looking to remove some of their risk from backing Real to win.
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I was going to post something very similar on Real Madrid's value, so I'm glad you've started this discussion off and will share my thinking.
It's interesting how much I've gone 180 on this and I hope like you I'm not overthinking this. At first when I saw this matchup I was convinced that City would cruise past Real Madrid with little fuss. The main reasons being that I'd watched them somehow be completely outplayed by a PSG team I never really rated and that have kind of been a shambles all season, despite their Ligue 1 title. I was then convinced Chelsea would get past Real but they seemed to hit a rough patch of form, lose the 1st leg at home but then almost pull it out of the fire at the Bernabeau. It all equated to a Real team that were there for the taking in my mind, but after that 1st leg and some further thinking and research, now I'm not so sure.
Firstly, Man City's mentality has always been something that has tripped them up at the final stages of this competition. Perhaps getting over that hurdle last season has helped them, but then some of the mistakes they made in the 1st leg had all those memories of past failures come flooding back. I also look at their away performance at the Estadio Metropolitano in the last round and it was far from convincing. Yes they didn't need to win, but apart from Gundogan's chance that hit the post, they created very little and were under pressure the entire 2nd half. If Correa was more clinical it could easily have been 1 a piece and in extra time and penalties where you'd probably favour Atleti with momentum on their side. Real are clearly a more potent team than Atleti, so if it comes down to a game where City can't bury it early then Real showed against PSG and Chelsea that they can cease the moment if it presents itself. I also think you can be somewhat forgiving of their performance against Chelsea as they clearly ceded the initiative to Chelsea thinking that they had enough of an advantage to protect at home. Given they are behind in the tie I don't think they'll make that same mistake again.
Digging through City's results this season in the UCL it struck me how poor they've been in their away games:
PSG 2-0 Loss C.Brugge 1-5 Win RB Leipzig 2-1 Loss Sporting 0-5 Win Atleti 0-0 Draw
A record of just 2-1-2 (Wins-Draws-Losses) and both wins came against teams that based on UEFA's club coefficient calculation are ranked 28th and 43rd respectively. I'm sure there are better ways to measure the strength of opposition, but regardless it gives you a good indication of how below average City have been away from home this season.
So I certainly agree that Real Madrid offer value here, but by no means is it a slam dunk play. After all, Real Madrid have their limitations with an ageing midfield and questionable defensive line. However, I think if Ancelotti can somehow get this game to be 0-0 or 1-1 going into the 2nd half and it starts playing out like the last round where Atleti were patient and pushed hard in the later stages only to come up short, I'd be confident that Real could come over the top of a nervous City team hanging on to their 1 goal advantage. So perhaps a Man City HT/FT play as cover may be worth consideration for those looking to remove some of their risk from backing Real to win.
We were discussing last week what if any affect it will have on City that they blew a chance to have this over in the first 30 minutes or so in 1st leg. They should have been up 3 or 4 early and to only get away with 1 goal difference seemed unimaginable after watching the complete domination of the first 30 minutes.
Drawing is not something I do.
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We were discussing last week what if any affect it will have on City that they blew a chance to have this over in the first 30 minutes or so in 1st leg. They should have been up 3 or 4 early and to only get away with 1 goal difference seemed unimaginable after watching the complete domination of the first 30 minutes.
At that price, I would absolutely take a shot with Real. All the pressure is on city. And I mean ALL OF IT. Obviously City is likely to go through but I doubt Real lose today. And if City get down 1 even 2 goals, how will those players react? Hell, how will Pep react? That man has overthought every situation like this in the champions league to date. Could easily happen again today.
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At that price, I would absolutely take a shot with Real. All the pressure is on city. And I mean ALL OF IT. Obviously City is likely to go through but I doubt Real lose today. And if City get down 1 even 2 goals, how will those players react? Hell, how will Pep react? That man has overthought every situation like this in the champions league to date. Could easily happen again today.
typing on the fly here. nice thread. on of the reasons tend to simply avoid such threads is people simply tend to just tear apart whatever thoughts someone had. which usually comes from getting triggered over a comment about hteir beloved team. so its nice to see the guys guys in here present their OWN thoughts. not making any plays except the goal scoring.
agree with Tilt, you are absolutely correct. just try to remove the teams from your mind for a second. simply based on the situation alone, getting a 320 when you are the home side and the away goal rule is no longer around, thats pretty decent value. no longer do clubs have to worry about 'matching' the first leg result. with that being said tho
friends were discussing this over the wknd, and the general feeling is probably the same many people have.... I wish we had Citys "problems". theyve set the bar pretty bloody high up there when people are complaining about HOW they are advancing, never mind they DID advance. every coach on this planet would play for the draw after having the advantage after 1st leg. and they just got done with Atletico/Pool/Atletico/Pool, there arent many whom can say they can do that and come out alive. the one thing i think ManC doesnt get enough credit for (probably cause of that roster they have assembled) is how hard it is to approach EVERY match with a 'win' mentality. look at the wknds result in Europe. Vill lose to the Liga cellar dweller, Pool squeaks by, all the Bunde teams lose. City? 4-0. just a small example. (and as im typing this the Spaniards are leading Pool. lose to a cellar dweller, take an early lead vs Klopp, hows that for 'motivation')
tho I think its nuts to fade Real at Bernabeu, the 'bigger' problem is if you remove the Covid season, the only clubs whom have knocked out City in this thing the past 3-4 years were their league rivals (familiarity is a b*tch ehh?). interesting stat which was given during Intl break:
City have been trailing just 399 out of the 3240 minutes of matches (36 games) this year (that was before Tott blew them away so I have no idea where thats at now) theyre playing from behind just 12% in all of their games (last year was just 9% for their 61 games) and this has been single digits in each of the past 4-5 years. nobody in europe even comes close to that. and when they concede first? 90% of the time theyve lost. (but then again, that hardly ever happens) how to beat City? punch them in mouth first. something Real is more than capable of doing.
if theres one thing id like to comment on is Matts thought process on the HT/FT, this actually makes sense; cause Peps MO has never faltered in 2nd legs. put foot on throat early, score or be scored upon. even those two 0-0 clunkers recent rounds, City created chances but simply didnt convert.
ive rambled anough, running out of time. sweet jesus on a cracker, Pool in major trouble
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typing on the fly here. nice thread. on of the reasons tend to simply avoid such threads is people simply tend to just tear apart whatever thoughts someone had. which usually comes from getting triggered over a comment about hteir beloved team. so its nice to see the guys guys in here present their OWN thoughts. not making any plays except the goal scoring.
agree with Tilt, you are absolutely correct. just try to remove the teams from your mind for a second. simply based on the situation alone, getting a 320 when you are the home side and the away goal rule is no longer around, thats pretty decent value. no longer do clubs have to worry about 'matching' the first leg result. with that being said tho
friends were discussing this over the wknd, and the general feeling is probably the same many people have.... I wish we had Citys "problems". theyve set the bar pretty bloody high up there when people are complaining about HOW they are advancing, never mind they DID advance. every coach on this planet would play for the draw after having the advantage after 1st leg. and they just got done with Atletico/Pool/Atletico/Pool, there arent many whom can say they can do that and come out alive. the one thing i think ManC doesnt get enough credit for (probably cause of that roster they have assembled) is how hard it is to approach EVERY match with a 'win' mentality. look at the wknds result in Europe. Vill lose to the Liga cellar dweller, Pool squeaks by, all the Bunde teams lose. City? 4-0. just a small example. (and as im typing this the Spaniards are leading Pool. lose to a cellar dweller, take an early lead vs Klopp, hows that for 'motivation')
tho I think its nuts to fade Real at Bernabeu, the 'bigger' problem is if you remove the Covid season, the only clubs whom have knocked out City in this thing the past 3-4 years were their league rivals (familiarity is a b*tch ehh?). interesting stat which was given during Intl break:
City have been trailing just 399 out of the 3240 minutes of matches (36 games) this year (that was before Tott blew them away so I have no idea where thats at now) theyre playing from behind just 12% in all of their games (last year was just 9% for their 61 games) and this has been single digits in each of the past 4-5 years. nobody in europe even comes close to that. and when they concede first? 90% of the time theyve lost. (but then again, that hardly ever happens) how to beat City? punch them in mouth first. something Real is more than capable of doing.
if theres one thing id like to comment on is Matts thought process on the HT/FT, this actually makes sense; cause Peps MO has never faltered in 2nd legs. put foot on throat early, score or be scored upon. even those two 0-0 clunkers recent rounds, City created chances but simply didnt convert.
ive rambled anough, running out of time. sweet jesus on a cracker, Pool in major trouble
look at the wknds result in Europe. Vill lose to the Liga cellar dweller, Pool squeaks by, all the Bunde teams lose. City? 4-0. just a small example.
I agree with almost everything except this part. Villarreal rotated heavily, almost all players that started in that loss didn't start against Liverpool. Liverpool squeaked by because again it was a clunky performance because 5 players that did not start tonight played in that game. Leicester (I know you didn't mention them) who go away to Roma rested most of their team against Tottenham and were very poor, while I'm not so sure about the Bundesliga but no doubt Frankfurt rested players.
Now go and look at Man City, they rested just 2 players I would think will start in Madrid, De Bruyne and Bernardo Silva. They're also Manchester City, despite all this talk about how strong Liverpool's squad has become I still rate City's ability to rotate and lose little from those rotations higher than any other team in Europe. In this regard Liverpool's midfield options are just bang average and don't come close to City's.
So I think it is another point worth emphasising. City are battling to hold off Liverpool in the Premier League so haven't been able to rest and rotate as much as they would have liked, while Real Madrid were able to rest Benzema, Kroos, Vinicius Jnr, Valverde, Carvajal and Mendy while other players were taken off early because of the easy victory. Will it make a big difference overall, probably not, but that extra energy in your home stadium may matter if this game is close or goes the distance.
Trying really hard not to talk myself into adding any more to this bet. haha.. Like I said earlier, I think it's a good value bet, but not a slam dunk by any means.
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Quote Originally Posted by specimen24:
look at the wknds result in Europe. Vill lose to the Liga cellar dweller, Pool squeaks by, all the Bunde teams lose. City? 4-0. just a small example.
I agree with almost everything except this part. Villarreal rotated heavily, almost all players that started in that loss didn't start against Liverpool. Liverpool squeaked by because again it was a clunky performance because 5 players that did not start tonight played in that game. Leicester (I know you didn't mention them) who go away to Roma rested most of their team against Tottenham and were very poor, while I'm not so sure about the Bundesliga but no doubt Frankfurt rested players.
Now go and look at Man City, they rested just 2 players I would think will start in Madrid, De Bruyne and Bernardo Silva. They're also Manchester City, despite all this talk about how strong Liverpool's squad has become I still rate City's ability to rotate and lose little from those rotations higher than any other team in Europe. In this regard Liverpool's midfield options are just bang average and don't come close to City's.
So I think it is another point worth emphasising. City are battling to hold off Liverpool in the Premier League so haven't been able to rest and rotate as much as they would have liked, while Real Madrid were able to rest Benzema, Kroos, Vinicius Jnr, Valverde, Carvajal and Mendy while other players were taken off early because of the easy victory. Will it make a big difference overall, probably not, but that extra energy in your home stadium may matter if this game is close or goes the distance.
Trying really hard not to talk myself into adding any more to this bet. haha.. Like I said earlier, I think it's a good value bet, but not a slam dunk by any means.
Thanks for the discussion guys! Think everyone made a lot of good points. I ended up making it a one unit play. I was thinking more at first, but I think Matt’s point is right. It’s by no means a sure thing, but at this payout it’s positive expected value imo
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Thanks for the discussion guys! Think everyone made a lot of good points. I ended up making it a one unit play. I was thinking more at first, but I think Matt’s point is right. It’s by no means a sure thing, but at this payout it’s positive expected value imo
I agree that +300 seems tempting but it won’t happen. Real is honestly somehow lucky to be here. PSG had that game in the bag before they fell apart, Chelsea was up 3-0, a lot had to happen for Real to get to this point. Yes 4–3 result seems ok but could have been worse I believe their luck runs out here. Man city 2-1
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I agree that +300 seems tempting but it won’t happen. Real is honestly somehow lucky to be here. PSG had that game in the bag before they fell apart, Chelsea was up 3-0, a lot had to happen for Real to get to this point. Yes 4–3 result seems ok but could have been worse I believe their luck runs out here. Man city 2-1
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Cheers all..certainly took some luck in the end, but knowing how to win this tournament counts for a lot! 
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