Loving threads like these, will post my plays in the morning but a few thoughts before I go to bed:
- Sparta Prague will have to deal with several important players not being able to play, their top striker and captain Lafata (11 goals in 14 games) is likely out. Looking for Krasnodar to get a result here, their showings in Europe so far have been noteworthy. Only concern is that Krasnodar is not in league mode, but for Zenit that didn't look like a huge disadvantage I suppose.
- Liking Augsburg to get a result, team has played solid the past games and clearly views this game as a bonus game for their efforts in the past. Crowd will love it, players will play fearless and that's usually a good sign against a team that's not unbeatable when playing on the road, just look at past EL games.
- The other games involving German teams are hard to assess, opponents obviously have prestigious names but all in all I see the BuLi teams in the head-to-head a tad in front, maybe Leverkusen will go out against Sporting. There surely is value on Sporting and Shakthar but you never know what sort of performance you will get from Schalke and Leverkusen, both are even capable of winning these games. I will probably stay away here. If anything I'm gonna back Dortmund, though the price is steep I am very sure they get the job done, Porto is not that impressive this season. Also a good spot for Dortmund with a mediocre game while Porto just coming off a crucial win over Benfica.
Other thoughts:
- Looking for Sevilla to slaughter Molde, if I play a parlay this one is gonna be included.
- Would like to hear some thoughts on Valencia at home. Odds are rising, yes the opponent has performed well but the quality gap is undeniable. Despite disappointing results this is a very generous price for a home win. This competition is all Valencia has left for to play so unless I hear otherwise I will probably pull the trigger.
In general I feel like many of these games might end in a draw, the stronger of the teams playing away in most cases...
Loving threads like these, will post my plays in the morning but a few thoughts before I go to bed:
- Sparta Prague will have to deal with several important players not being able to play, their top striker and captain Lafata (11 goals in 14 games) is likely out. Looking for Krasnodar to get a result here, their showings in Europe so far have been noteworthy. Only concern is that Krasnodar is not in league mode, but for Zenit that didn't look like a huge disadvantage I suppose.
- Liking Augsburg to get a result, team has played solid the past games and clearly views this game as a bonus game for their efforts in the past. Crowd will love it, players will play fearless and that's usually a good sign against a team that's not unbeatable when playing on the road, just look at past EL games.
- The other games involving German teams are hard to assess, opponents obviously have prestigious names but all in all I see the BuLi teams in the head-to-head a tad in front, maybe Leverkusen will go out against Sporting. There surely is value on Sporting and Shakthar but you never know what sort of performance you will get from Schalke and Leverkusen, both are even capable of winning these games. I will probably stay away here. If anything I'm gonna back Dortmund, though the price is steep I am very sure they get the job done, Porto is not that impressive this season. Also a good spot for Dortmund with a mediocre game while Porto just coming off a crucial win over Benfica.
Other thoughts:
- Looking for Sevilla to slaughter Molde, if I play a parlay this one is gonna be included.
- Would like to hear some thoughts on Valencia at home. Odds are rising, yes the opponent has performed well but the quality gap is undeniable. Despite disappointing results this is a very generous price for a home win. This competition is all Valencia has left for to play so unless I hear otherwise I will probably pull the trigger.
In general I feel like many of these games might end in a draw, the stronger of the teams playing away in most cases...
Good to see some solid backing of Krasnodar, Seville LARGE, Basel +, Augsburg +.........
Having similar feelings on all the above. I think its the type of competition where " value " seems to be the way to go. Heavy fav's haven't fared well in Europa ( although I totally agree about Seville ) .
****** NEWS ALERT *******
The Strongest @ 15 / 1 underdogs, just beat Sao Paulo in Brazil
Good to see some solid backing of Krasnodar, Seville LARGE, Basel +, Augsburg +.........
Having similar feelings on all the above. I think its the type of competition where " value " seems to be the way to go. Heavy fav's haven't fared well in Europa ( although I totally agree about Seville ) .
****** NEWS ALERT *******
The Strongest @ 15 / 1 underdogs, just beat Sao Paulo in Brazil
Good to see some solid backing of Krasnodar, Seville LARGE, Basel +, Augsburg +.........
Having similar feelings on all the above. I think its the type of competition where " value " seems to be the way to go. Heavy fav's haven't fared well in Europa ( although I totally agree about Seville ) .
****** NEWS ALERT *******
The Strongest @ 15 / 1 underdogs, just beat Sao Paulo in Brazil
Dissbarred must be going DISCO
I hope he puts passport in safe deposit box before he goes.
Good to see some solid backing of Krasnodar, Seville LARGE, Basel +, Augsburg +.........
Having similar feelings on all the above. I think its the type of competition where " value " seems to be the way to go. Heavy fav's haven't fared well in Europa ( although I totally agree about Seville ) .
****** NEWS ALERT *******
The Strongest @ 15 / 1 underdogs, just beat Sao Paulo in Brazil
Dissbarred must be going DISCO
I hope he puts passport in safe deposit box before he goes.
Lol Franz!!!## I'm partying lIke a 1970s rock star right now!!!! I can't believe it ... I'm stunned ... wooohoooo THE STRONGEST!!!! I am literally high as a kite right now!!! Woohooo!!
Lol Franz!!!## I'm partying lIke a 1970s rock star right now!!!! I can't believe it ... I'm stunned ... wooohoooo THE STRONGEST!!!! I am literally high as a kite right now!!! Woohooo!!
Love these threads. The info provided about some of the teams is so valuable, ex KW's info about Sparta, much appreciated
the line on the Fiorentina/Spurs game puzzles me. I didn't expect Spurs to be such a big dog. Hard not to like them DNB. Maybe they don't take this competition quite as seriously with their league title hopes hanging so high? idk
Agree with KW about Dortmund and Sevilla. Like Dortmund -1 but not sure how to play Sevilla yet.
Kinda like Braga DNB. Don't see them losing, thinking a push at worst. That's all I have for now. Too many games for me to digest them all at once. Have to do it in spurts lol
Love these threads. The info provided about some of the teams is so valuable, ex KW's info about Sparta, much appreciated
the line on the Fiorentina/Spurs game puzzles me. I didn't expect Spurs to be such a big dog. Hard not to like them DNB. Maybe they don't take this competition quite as seriously with their league title hopes hanging so high? idk
Agree with KW about Dortmund and Sevilla. Like Dortmund -1 but not sure how to play Sevilla yet.
Kinda like Braga DNB. Don't see them losing, thinking a push at worst. That's all I have for now. Too many games for me to digest them all at once. Have to do it in spurts lol
Good stuff everybody....obviously motivation and line-ups will make a big impact on these matches.
Spanish teams seem to take this competition pretty seriously. Villarreal is so damn tight at home, I think Napoli will find things a bit tough....and their motivation could be somewhat on other things, could make the same case about the Spurs, perhaps, wonder what type of rotations they will go with. I think Pool will be quite motivated.
As for overs....it think it's a real minefield. I could make a case for any of these games to go over. I find myself betting teams in Europa that I would never touch for an over in their domestic league games. Whole lotta luck and friendly bouces!
Good stuff everybody....obviously motivation and line-ups will make a big impact on these matches.
Spanish teams seem to take this competition pretty seriously. Villarreal is so damn tight at home, I think Napoli will find things a bit tough....and their motivation could be somewhat on other things, could make the same case about the Spurs, perhaps, wonder what type of rotations they will go with. I think Pool will be quite motivated.
As for overs....it think it's a real minefield. I could make a case for any of these games to go over. I find myself betting teams in Europa that I would never touch for an over in their domestic league games. Whole lotta luck and friendly bouces!
I want to preface everything that comes after this with, "I don't have a clue what will happen in these games." That being said I guess I can still perhaps guess where the good value bet is, so...
Fiorentina/Tottenham- I think Tottenham would view 1-1 as a good result here and the way they are playing I would be shocked if they aren't fairly competitive here. Fiorentina are also in excellent form, but the gap is slim. I see a 1-1 or 2-1 game, and because of the pay difference I lean DRAW @ +232.
Augsburg/Liverpool- The one red flag for me in this game is that Liverpool are out of the FA cup and have the weekend off, while Augsburg have a Bundesliga game this saturday. Other than that I think the line is madness and Liverpool should not be this big of favorites in Germany. Again maybe the DRAW @ +247 is a good play or Augsburg +0.25 @ +114.
Sion/Braga- I play for a Portuguese team, and the 2 guys from Braga never pass. I hope they lose by a lot. No play
I want to preface everything that comes after this with, "I don't have a clue what will happen in these games." That being said I guess I can still perhaps guess where the good value bet is, so...
Fiorentina/Tottenham- I think Tottenham would view 1-1 as a good result here and the way they are playing I would be shocked if they aren't fairly competitive here. Fiorentina are also in excellent form, but the gap is slim. I see a 1-1 or 2-1 game, and because of the pay difference I lean DRAW @ +232.
Augsburg/Liverpool- The one red flag for me in this game is that Liverpool are out of the FA cup and have the weekend off, while Augsburg have a Bundesliga game this saturday. Other than that I think the line is madness and Liverpool should not be this big of favorites in Germany. Again maybe the DRAW @ +247 is a good play or Augsburg +0.25 @ +114.
Sion/Braga- I play for a Portuguese team, and the 2 guys from Braga never pass. I hope they lose by a lot. No play
Wow no mentions of the ol Glorly Glory Man United! One of my favorite out-of-major-league team to bet on recently was Midtylland, partly because they were extremely strong domestically and everyone refers to them as "Midgets." Have to believe this is their Super Bowl. Like them getting a half a goal with all that nonsense going on for the Red Devils. Who really wants to travel to Denmark in the middle of February to play a team you can't pronounce?
Wow no mentions of the ol Glorly Glory Man United! One of my favorite out-of-major-league team to bet on recently was Midtylland, partly because they were extremely strong domestically and everyone refers to them as "Midgets." Have to believe this is their Super Bowl. Like them getting a half a goal with all that nonsense going on for the Red Devils. Who really wants to travel to Denmark in the middle of February to play a team you can't pronounce?
Sevilla/Molde really took my attention. Molde won their group (Celtic, Ajax, Fenerbahce) in impressive fashion. On the paper, this is was one of the toughest groups to be in and Molde dominated. Tonight, they are +2300 in Sevilla? +140 to score? This is not the EL qualification anymore. I mean Molde has shown that they can compete with decent European teams. So why this high odds? Yes, they have a different calendar and might be rusty. Sevilla is better than the other three teams and Sevilla obviously is a tough place to play. BUT+2300? Really? I'm close to putting a nickel on them and especially on Molde to score. They have scored in 10 out of 12 European games this season, 5 out of 6 on the road. Sevilla will be offensive minded, I can see Molde at least scoring here. Any thoughts, guys?
Sevilla/Molde really took my attention. Molde won their group (Celtic, Ajax, Fenerbahce) in impressive fashion. On the paper, this is was one of the toughest groups to be in and Molde dominated. Tonight, they are +2300 in Sevilla? +140 to score? This is not the EL qualification anymore. I mean Molde has shown that they can compete with decent European teams. So why this high odds? Yes, they have a different calendar and might be rusty. Sevilla is better than the other three teams and Sevilla obviously is a tough place to play. BUT+2300? Really? I'm close to putting a nickel on them and especially on Molde to score. They have scored in 10 out of 12 European games this season, 5 out of 6 on the road. Sevilla will be offensive minded, I can see Molde at least scoring here. Any thoughts, guys?
My mind is slightly changing on some of these, and I'm not playing anything...
I think whiskey brings up a good point about United this could definitely be a tough game for them, and now without Rooney somebody with less experience will be playing up top. I think a DRAW is worth a shot in that one.
The Fiorentina line is holding ground firmly and the Liverpool price is getting even steeper, I would say skip these games altogether, they might be trickier than they appear.
Unfortunately I can't justify a single play, so I'll be waiting for South America tonight, GL all
My mind is slightly changing on some of these, and I'm not playing anything...
I think whiskey brings up a good point about United this could definitely be a tough game for them, and now without Rooney somebody with less experience will be playing up top. I think a DRAW is worth a shot in that one.
The Fiorentina line is holding ground firmly and the Liverpool price is getting even steeper, I would say skip these games altogether, they might be trickier than they appear.
Unfortunately I can't justify a single play, so I'll be waiting for South America tonight, GL all
Sevilla/Molde really took my attention. Molde won their group (Celtic, Ajax, Fenerbahce) in impressive fashion. On the paper, this is was one of the toughest groups to be in and Molde dominated. Tonight, they are +2300 in Sevilla? +140 to score? This is not the EL qualification anymore. I mean Molde has shown that they can compete with decent European teams. So why this high odds? Yes, they have a different calendar and might be rusty. Sevilla is better than the other three teams and Sevilla obviously is a tough place to play. BUT+2300? Really? I'm close to putting a nickel on them and especially on Molde to score. They have scored in 10 out of 12 European games this season, 5 out of 6 on the road. Sevilla will be offensive minded, I can see Molde at least scoring here. Any thoughts, guys?
Here are my thoughts on this one. I really wanted to unload on Sevilla here, but 2.5 goals is too much to lay for me.
One glaring red flag for me in backing Molde would be that they haven't played any competitive matches in 2 months. They played 4 friendlies since their last Europa match, all lost (one on PK's). Norwegian teams rarely make it out of the group stage, and I do not believe have made it past the 1st round in the last 10-12 years, perhaps longer, I did not back check it further. I have to believe that their league being pretty mediocre overall, and it being the offseason, have to hurt their chances some.
They definitely showed up well in the group stage though, cannot take that away from them, even if 6 pts came off beating a Celtic team that is apparently underachieving this year.
Sevilla/Molde really took my attention. Molde won their group (Celtic, Ajax, Fenerbahce) in impressive fashion. On the paper, this is was one of the toughest groups to be in and Molde dominated. Tonight, they are +2300 in Sevilla? +140 to score? This is not the EL qualification anymore. I mean Molde has shown that they can compete with decent European teams. So why this high odds? Yes, they have a different calendar and might be rusty. Sevilla is better than the other three teams and Sevilla obviously is a tough place to play. BUT+2300? Really? I'm close to putting a nickel on them and especially on Molde to score. They have scored in 10 out of 12 European games this season, 5 out of 6 on the road. Sevilla will be offensive minded, I can see Molde at least scoring here. Any thoughts, guys?
Here are my thoughts on this one. I really wanted to unload on Sevilla here, but 2.5 goals is too much to lay for me.
One glaring red flag for me in backing Molde would be that they haven't played any competitive matches in 2 months. They played 4 friendlies since their last Europa match, all lost (one on PK's). Norwegian teams rarely make it out of the group stage, and I do not believe have made it past the 1st round in the last 10-12 years, perhaps longer, I did not back check it further. I have to believe that their league being pretty mediocre overall, and it being the offseason, have to hurt their chances some.
They definitely showed up well in the group stage though, cannot take that away from them, even if 6 pts came off beating a Celtic team that is apparently underachieving this year.
Sevilla/Molde really took my attention. Molde won their group (Celtic, Ajax, Fenerbahce) in impressive fashion. On the paper, this is was one of the toughest groups to be in and Molde dominated. Tonight, they are +2300 in Sevilla? +140 to score? This is not the EL qualification anymore. I mean Molde has shown that they can compete with decent European teams. So why this high odds? Yes, they have a different calendar and might be rusty. Sevilla is better than the other three teams and Sevilla obviously is a tough place to play. BUT+2300? Really? I'm close to putting a nickel on them and especially on Molde to score. They have scored in 10 out of 12 European games this season, 5 out of 6 on the road. Sevilla will be offensive minded, I can see Molde at least scoring here. Any thoughts, guys?
Molde have ZERO chance of winning and very little chance of getting a draw here. Like PB said, Spanish sides seem to take these competitions to heart. Since Seville has no shot at winning the league, I expect them to take this match very seriously. I think any amount of money put on Molde is an absolute waste. However, I do kind of like them to score. At +140 tho, I'd wait for 20-30 minutes and grab it live then. I don't see them scoring in that amount of time and I certainly don't see them scoring first. If you wait a while in game, you should get closer to +250 odds on it. I also like the over 3.25. I think Seville could cover this themselves but if Molde score, I really don't see how it doesn't go over.
I don't mean to sound like one of those guys who thinks underdogs can't win, but in this instance, they can't. The quality between these two teams is just too great imo. But I've been wrong before, I just don't think I am this time lol.
Sevilla/Molde really took my attention. Molde won their group (Celtic, Ajax, Fenerbahce) in impressive fashion. On the paper, this is was one of the toughest groups to be in and Molde dominated. Tonight, they are +2300 in Sevilla? +140 to score? This is not the EL qualification anymore. I mean Molde has shown that they can compete with decent European teams. So why this high odds? Yes, they have a different calendar and might be rusty. Sevilla is better than the other three teams and Sevilla obviously is a tough place to play. BUT+2300? Really? I'm close to putting a nickel on them and especially on Molde to score. They have scored in 10 out of 12 European games this season, 5 out of 6 on the road. Sevilla will be offensive minded, I can see Molde at least scoring here. Any thoughts, guys?
Molde have ZERO chance of winning and very little chance of getting a draw here. Like PB said, Spanish sides seem to take these competitions to heart. Since Seville has no shot at winning the league, I expect them to take this match very seriously. I think any amount of money put on Molde is an absolute waste. However, I do kind of like them to score. At +140 tho, I'd wait for 20-30 minutes and grab it live then. I don't see them scoring in that amount of time and I certainly don't see them scoring first. If you wait a while in game, you should get closer to +250 odds on it. I also like the over 3.25. I think Seville could cover this themselves but if Molde score, I really don't see how it doesn't go over.
I don't mean to sound like one of those guys who thinks underdogs can't win, but in this instance, they can't. The quality between these two teams is just too great imo. But I've been wrong before, I just don't think I am this time lol.
Wow no mentions of the ol Glorly Glory Man United! One of my favorite out-of-major-league team to bet on recently was Midtylland, partly because they were extremely strong domestically and everyone refers to them as "Midgets." Have to believe this is their Super Bowl. Like them getting a half a goal with all that nonsense going on for the Red Devils. Who really wants to travel to Denmark in the middle of February to play a team you can't pronounce?
Very interesting angle on the "Midgets" today.
Yep nobody wants to go to a winter bound Viking homestead with a red devil fork when you need a silver spoon for the clean finish!
Uphill both ways for these Devils. I'm already booked up on Dortmund -1 but will be watching this one closely.
Wow no mentions of the ol Glorly Glory Man United! One of my favorite out-of-major-league team to bet on recently was Midtylland, partly because they were extremely strong domestically and everyone refers to them as "Midgets." Have to believe this is their Super Bowl. Like them getting a half a goal with all that nonsense going on for the Red Devils. Who really wants to travel to Denmark in the middle of February to play a team you can't pronounce?
Very interesting angle on the "Midgets" today.
Yep nobody wants to go to a winter bound Viking homestead with a red devil fork when you need a silver spoon for the clean finish!
Uphill both ways for these Devils. I'm already booked up on Dortmund -1 but will be watching this one closely.
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