tried getting this up earlier, no luck. so went ahead with rest of card...... a little unorganized but will put up thoughts and plays ....
as always, start with the Holland "FUN" parlay 1.5's @+186
this could be a tricky wknd.....
Serie A:
Serie A:
Napoli/Empoli - the only thing im thinking about when I see this match is: "napoli is 6 pts behind us, and already lost once". end of discussion. needless to say, last year they were not thy fav sandwich participants reeling off 4 straight wins on those roadies (tho this is at home) these guys from Naples tend to take care of business in these spots. overall, Napoli has lost just 3 times in past 3 years the wknd before UCL... 2 of them were to Juve. but asking them to cover a HC when Cavani & Co. paying a visit Tuesday makes me wary. Toss in the fact Ancellotti will rotate his lineup; no Insigne, no Hamsik, Mertens will almost surely see limited minutes. that late, garbage time goal as Napoli takes its foot off the pedal to conserve energy looms large.
practically same prices as the -1.5 so this is just a preference.
Napoli HT/FT @-133
back in a bit with 'Sandwich' thoughts, plays, and opinions.
tried getting this up earlier, no luck. so went ahead with rest of card...... a little unorganized but will put up thoughts and plays ....
as always, start with the Holland "FUN" parlay 1.5's @+186
this could be a tricky wknd.....
Serie A:
Serie A:
Napoli/Empoli - the only thing im thinking about when I see this match is: "napoli is 6 pts behind us, and already lost once". end of discussion. needless to say, last year they were not thy fav sandwich participants reeling off 4 straight wins on those roadies (tho this is at home) these guys from Naples tend to take care of business in these spots. overall, Napoli has lost just 3 times in past 3 years the wknd before UCL... 2 of them were to Juve. but asking them to cover a HC when Cavani & Co. paying a visit Tuesday makes me wary. Toss in the fact Ancellotti will rotate his lineup; no Insigne, no Hamsik, Mertens will almost surely see limited minutes. that late, garbage time goal as Napoli takes its foot off the pedal to conserve energy looms large.
practically same prices as the -1.5 so this is just a preference.
Napoli HT/FT @-133
back in a bit with 'Sandwich' thoughts, plays, and opinions.
Round 4: at a glance, very 'small' lines. for various reasons like strength of opposition & lineup rotations.
though no guarantees, historically speaking, the 4th and 5th rounds have typically been the strongest within this trend. perhaps not on bottom line per se as opposed to the volume of 'upsets'. reason being? (even perhaps moreseo this season) is that all 32 teams still have a chance at continuing their european season; if not by advancing to the KO stages theres also the 8 3rd-place teams being able to move into UEL. (im not going to get into discussing each clubs 'motivation' towards participating the UEL)
hence, lineups tend to be heavily rotated. and even for those squads which arent, theres still one eye open looking at the midweek.
and even some of the HOME teams have caught my attention; but for now, put these in and letting it fly.
Reims/Monaco +175, +250
Genk/Brugge to win @+102
Novi Sad/Crvena +1100, +550, +1.5 @-105
Arsenal/Pool +260, +295
Leganes/Madrid +540, +240
Wolfsburg/Dortmund +300, +275
Wolves/Tottenham +242, +255
Rayo/Barcelona +950, +550
Bournemouth/ManU +280, +270
Lever/Hoffenheim to win +125
Fior/Roma +175, +260
Basak/Besitkas +135
Dinamo/CSKA +270, +240
Maritimo/Porto +950, +375
Grasshopper/YB +385, +333
Panath/AEK +300, +225
Ostrava/Plzen +195, +225
a part of me wants to put small plays & simply fade all the HOME teams too (at least with HC lines). theres no guarantees. but experience has taught me to shy away from CL clubs in these spots. theres 4 though whom stick out like a sore thumb.
notes on a few of the home sides. i have NOT read into any of these so might be waaay off base with some assumptions:
1) Galatssaray - this has got to be a NASTY spot for them. a MAJOR midweek match in Germany vs Schalke which just might decide whom advances. but they also host one of their most hated/fiercest rivals (Fener). toss out the table standings, it means nothing.
2) ditto Shakhtar - Kiev on Saturday with a little breathing space to spare & a trip to Manchester midweek.
3) PSG - they have an 8 pt cushion with 2nd place Lille, im starting to wonder if this is their 'throw-away' game. that visit to Naples on Tuesday is massive and im not entirelysure if they are gonna go all-out today. check the lineups here, could be wrong, but I cannot see Tuchel putting his full strength team out.
4) Tottenham - already on auto fade. but much to my suprise, Poch apparently made a last minute gut decision and gave Alli/Erik playing time on wed. both coming off injuries so it was understandable (Allegri & Conte before him with Juve does this ALL the time) .but with the newly promoted Wolves & their cr*ppy offense in the 200's raised my eyebrows. im wondering if all 3 of Totts 'stars' are gonna be rested.
iat least take a minute of ur own time to check the lineups. the UCL & its monetary gain, really IS this important.
***edit***
Fenerbahce +1/2 @-115 - i simply dont like this spot for Galat.
Round 4: at a glance, very 'small' lines. for various reasons like strength of opposition & lineup rotations.
though no guarantees, historically speaking, the 4th and 5th rounds have typically been the strongest within this trend. perhaps not on bottom line per se as opposed to the volume of 'upsets'. reason being? (even perhaps moreseo this season) is that all 32 teams still have a chance at continuing their european season; if not by advancing to the KO stages theres also the 8 3rd-place teams being able to move into UEL. (im not going to get into discussing each clubs 'motivation' towards participating the UEL)
hence, lineups tend to be heavily rotated. and even for those squads which arent, theres still one eye open looking at the midweek.
and even some of the HOME teams have caught my attention; but for now, put these in and letting it fly.
Reims/Monaco +175, +250
Genk/Brugge to win @+102
Novi Sad/Crvena +1100, +550, +1.5 @-105
Arsenal/Pool +260, +295
Leganes/Madrid +540, +240
Wolfsburg/Dortmund +300, +275
Wolves/Tottenham +242, +255
Rayo/Barcelona +950, +550
Bournemouth/ManU +280, +270
Lever/Hoffenheim to win +125
Fior/Roma +175, +260
Basak/Besitkas +135
Dinamo/CSKA +270, +240
Maritimo/Porto +950, +375
Grasshopper/YB +385, +333
Panath/AEK +300, +225
Ostrava/Plzen +195, +225
a part of me wants to put small plays & simply fade all the HOME teams too (at least with HC lines). theres no guarantees. but experience has taught me to shy away from CL clubs in these spots. theres 4 though whom stick out like a sore thumb.
notes on a few of the home sides. i have NOT read into any of these so might be waaay off base with some assumptions:
1) Galatssaray - this has got to be a NASTY spot for them. a MAJOR midweek match in Germany vs Schalke which just might decide whom advances. but they also host one of their most hated/fiercest rivals (Fener). toss out the table standings, it means nothing.
2) ditto Shakhtar - Kiev on Saturday with a little breathing space to spare & a trip to Manchester midweek.
3) PSG - they have an 8 pt cushion with 2nd place Lille, im starting to wonder if this is their 'throw-away' game. that visit to Naples on Tuesday is massive and im not entirelysure if they are gonna go all-out today. check the lineups here, could be wrong, but I cannot see Tuchel putting his full strength team out.
4) Tottenham - already on auto fade. but much to my suprise, Poch apparently made a last minute gut decision and gave Alli/Erik playing time on wed. both coming off injuries so it was understandable (Allegri & Conte before him with Juve does this ALL the time) .but with the newly promoted Wolves & their cr*ppy offense in the 200's raised my eyebrows. im wondering if all 3 of Totts 'stars' are gonna be rested.
iat least take a minute of ur own time to check the lineups. the UCL & its monetary gain, really IS this important.
***edit***
Fenerbahce +1/2 @-115 - i simply dont like this spot for Galat.
Babu one of these years im gonna grow a pair and get self to stop. most likely ill end up switching to another 'overish league' . last week in the last match that was completed, a 92nd min goal was overturned. maybe thats the 'signal'.
Cody trying to validate PSG's lineup. i dont like fading these guys AT ALL. but like with juve, they arent going 38-0-0. and this is about as good of a spot as any. even a slim win is fine.as the 1.5's are nicely priced. might get it tossed back into my face.
Babu one of these years im gonna grow a pair and get self to stop. most likely ill end up switching to another 'overish league' . last week in the last match that was completed, a 92nd min goal was overturned. maybe thats the 'signal'.
Cody trying to validate PSG's lineup. i dont like fading these guys AT ALL. but like with juve, they arent going 38-0-0. and this is about as good of a spot as any. even a slim win is fine.as the 1.5's are nicely priced. might get it tossed back into my face.
Lille +1.5 @+160 , over 1.5 first half @-120 - not comfy fading these guys at home; however Tuchel - like Ancelloti is doing today -- has joined the 'rotation bandwagon'. but either this stays close or PSG takes them out behind the woodshed. lets not kid ourselves, PSG's BENCH is better than most Ligue I teams. Lille has shown the ability to put the ball in back of net too.
Lille +1.5 @+160 , over 1.5 first half @-120 - not comfy fading these guys at home; however Tuchel - like Ancelloti is doing today -- has joined the 'rotation bandwagon'. but either this stays close or PSG takes them out behind the woodshed. lets not kid ourselves, PSG's BENCH is better than most Ligue I teams. Lille has shown the ability to put the ball in back of net too.
Spec just wanted to say mucho respect and appreciation for all the info you provide...
Bout the trouble you mentioned posting here...if you go back to the classic "what your used to" version of covers its much easier!!
(You seem so cool its strange the wrath you unleash on new posters here, but hey you bring it sincere GL to you Cody LeatherPants p66 oh man Dogberto DetroyPitch...much appreciation to you guys...If I dare to join in,,,, you can rip me a new behind prob deserved...anyway thx espec for your Italy info appreciated)
Spec just wanted to say mucho respect and appreciation for all the info you provide...
Bout the trouble you mentioned posting here...if you go back to the classic "what your used to" version of covers its much easier!!
(You seem so cool its strange the wrath you unleash on new posters here, but hey you bring it sincere GL to you Cody LeatherPants p66 oh man Dogberto DetroyPitch...much appreciation to you guys...If I dare to join in,,,, you can rip me a new behind prob deserved...anyway thx espec for your Italy info appreciated)
willie those lines are associated with every team to the left (home sides)
heading out in a bit. getting this up now. nice start to the wknd. hit the 'fun' parlay just when start losing hope. like that fish which nibbles on ur hook just before you plan to call it a day, causing you to keep casting that line 3 more hours. incurable.
Napoli was easy and got the two CL home fades, though have to admit quite fortunate. big card this wknd and hope to keep this going.
Ukraine:
Shakhtar/Kiev - another one i mentioned ystday. for those unfamiliar, without any exaggeration, this is about an intense of a rivalry as any in Europe. Shakhtar in the same d*mn spot Galat was in ystday. having a long trip to Manchester midweek while hosting their hated/fierce rival today. 5 pts separate 1st & 2nd, Kiev are unbeaten in 9 straight roadies this year (including UEL); have won the last 3 visits and 4 of the past 5. though Shak is demolishing everyone in the league this is a pretty nasty spot for anyone to navigate. worth a shot at these prices.
Kiev +1/2 @evens, and lets toss a little on the outright @+350
Serie A:
Juve + Inter - not touching either match. Napoli won ystday; theres your motivation right there. Genoa hasnt won in San Siro in god knows how long (ok, ok..... 20+ years). and not only is this an early start, Genoa just PLAYED here 3 days ago finishing late at night. now they get the "other" guys. though Barca coming for a visit, knowing his M.O., I doubt Spalletti (Inter) will rotate. juice should be in the 400s.
for Cagliari, havent won here since 09; and has scored just once in their last 4 visits. and again, 1) Napoli won yesterday 2) Juve dont/rarely drop pts at home in consecutive matches to such opponents. smells like an Allegri-style 2-0 final.
Fior/Roma - sandwich spot.
Serie B:
Foggia/Brescia over 2.5 @-115 (strong play)
Serie C:
Novara to win @+227, over 2.5 @+120
EPL:
Cardiff/Leicester over 2.5 @+112
England Lower: (tailing)
York/Bradford over 3.5 @+150
Ashton/Boston over 3.5 @+156
Bashford/Ferriby over 3.5 @+104
Gosport/Chesham over 3.5 @+136
Basing/Weymouth over 4.5 @+240
Spain:
Girona +1/2 @+180
Scotland:
Celtic/Hearts over 3.5 @+160 - appears as if Celtic finally woke up. beat them in a Cup match last week 3-0. expecting more of the same here.
willie those lines are associated with every team to the left (home sides)
heading out in a bit. getting this up now. nice start to the wknd. hit the 'fun' parlay just when start losing hope. like that fish which nibbles on ur hook just before you plan to call it a day, causing you to keep casting that line 3 more hours. incurable.
Napoli was easy and got the two CL home fades, though have to admit quite fortunate. big card this wknd and hope to keep this going.
Ukraine:
Shakhtar/Kiev - another one i mentioned ystday. for those unfamiliar, without any exaggeration, this is about an intense of a rivalry as any in Europe. Shakhtar in the same d*mn spot Galat was in ystday. having a long trip to Manchester midweek while hosting their hated/fierce rival today. 5 pts separate 1st & 2nd, Kiev are unbeaten in 9 straight roadies this year (including UEL); have won the last 3 visits and 4 of the past 5. though Shak is demolishing everyone in the league this is a pretty nasty spot for anyone to navigate. worth a shot at these prices.
Kiev +1/2 @evens, and lets toss a little on the outright @+350
Serie A:
Juve + Inter - not touching either match. Napoli won ystday; theres your motivation right there. Genoa hasnt won in San Siro in god knows how long (ok, ok..... 20+ years). and not only is this an early start, Genoa just PLAYED here 3 days ago finishing late at night. now they get the "other" guys. though Barca coming for a visit, knowing his M.O., I doubt Spalletti (Inter) will rotate. juice should be in the 400s.
for Cagliari, havent won here since 09; and has scored just once in their last 4 visits. and again, 1) Napoli won yesterday 2) Juve dont/rarely drop pts at home in consecutive matches to such opponents. smells like an Allegri-style 2-0 final.
Fior/Roma - sandwich spot.
Serie B:
Foggia/Brescia over 2.5 @-115 (strong play)
Serie C:
Novara to win @+227, over 2.5 @+120
EPL:
Cardiff/Leicester over 2.5 @+112
England Lower: (tailing)
York/Bradford over 3.5 @+150
Ashton/Boston over 3.5 @+156
Bashford/Ferriby over 3.5 @+104
Gosport/Chesham over 3.5 @+136
Basing/Weymouth over 4.5 @+240
Spain:
Girona +1/2 @+180
Scotland:
Celtic/Hearts over 3.5 @+160 - appears as if Celtic finally woke up. beat them in a Cup match last week 3-0. expecting more of the same here.
striker pardon, didnt see that in time. those things are always dicey, i had actually forgot about it while capping the play. last year when astori passed away they had a home match vs a cr*ppy Benev squad and barely squeaked by. everyone handles tragedies in their own way so theres no real 'angle' for that in my opinion.
speaking of Leicester, proponents of VAR being used in EPL got some major ammo to fall back on, if ya missed it, go check the last 2 minutes of the 1st half there. load of *****
well, its safe to say Luis Suarez will NOT be getting a Xmas card from me this year.
went 5-8 on indiv plays hitting the big one with Serie B, shakhtar scored in 95th to ruin that one, (a "make up" for the Lille win on friday I guess). got 7 wins out of those sandwiches with various amts so ended up on the '+' side of what could have been a huge day if it wasnt for many late goals. but thats the way it goes sometimes, cant really complain about that.
striker pardon, didnt see that in time. those things are always dicey, i had actually forgot about it while capping the play. last year when astori passed away they had a home match vs a cr*ppy Benev squad and barely squeaked by. everyone handles tragedies in their own way so theres no real 'angle' for that in my opinion.
speaking of Leicester, proponents of VAR being used in EPL got some major ammo to fall back on, if ya missed it, go check the last 2 minutes of the 1st half there. load of *****
well, its safe to say Luis Suarez will NOT be getting a Xmas card from me this year.
went 5-8 on indiv plays hitting the big one with Serie B, shakhtar scored in 95th to ruin that one, (a "make up" for the Lille win on friday I guess). got 7 wins out of those sandwiches with various amts so ended up on the '+' side of what could have been a huge day if it wasnt for many late goals. but thats the way it goes sometimes, cant really complain about that.
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