Gonna get my thread going for now; no bets locked in but I will have a preview overall and for each group. I will wait until during the week to make final bets.
Overall, I think there are three legit favorites: Spain, Germany, and the Dutch. Out of the three, solely based on price, you'd have to back the Dutch at nearly 7/1 when you're only getting 3/1 on the other two favorites. I just don't see there being that big of a gap between those three teams. After the favorites, I see a group of four 'contenders', teams that could make noise: Italy, France, Russia, & Portugal. The two best prices are the latter two teams (17/1 and 26/1 respectively) but they also have the hardest roads. Out of this group, I'd have to lean toward Italy as a second team to back solely based on price. But, like I said, I won't be locking anything in until later this week.
Gonna get my thread going for now; no bets locked in but I will have a preview overall and for each group. I will wait until during the week to make final bets.
Overall, I think there are three legit favorites: Spain, Germany, and the Dutch. Out of the three, solely based on price, you'd have to back the Dutch at nearly 7/1 when you're only getting 3/1 on the other two favorites. I just don't see there being that big of a gap between those three teams. After the favorites, I see a group of four 'contenders', teams that could make noise: Italy, France, Russia, & Portugal. The two best prices are the latter two teams (17/1 and 26/1 respectively) but they also have the hardest roads. Out of this group, I'd have to lean toward Italy as a second team to back solely based on price. But, like I said, I won't be locking anything in until later this week.
Bottom line here is I see a hotly contested group. Russia is the best team but their defensive woahs mixed in with the defensive / counter attacking style of this group could cause them problems. I see a lot of low scoring games in this group mixed with a cluster of teams battling for position. Some prices that catch my eye are Greece to qualify, Russia to win the group, or Poland/Czech to finish last.
Bottom line here is I see a hotly contested group. Russia is the best team but their defensive woahs mixed in with the defensive / counter attacking style of this group could cause them problems. I see a lot of low scoring games in this group mixed with a cluster of teams battling for position. Some prices that catch my eye are Greece to qualify, Russia to win the group, or Poland/Czech to finish last.
The group of death. This is a two horse race with Denmark being the group's punching bag. I really see a toss-up as who wins with the only thing being assured is that Denmark is at the bottom. So, some prices that catch my eye are Holland to win, or Denmark to finish last.
The group of death. This is a two horse race with Denmark being the group's punching bag. I really see a toss-up as who wins with the only thing being assured is that Denmark is at the bottom. So, some prices that catch my eye are Holland to win, or Denmark to finish last.
Everything I said about group B applies here. Spain are the fair favs but playing Italy in the first match gives the Italians an edge and I think this group could end up coming to goal differential. Croatia is not an easy out while Ireland, simply enough, is. Some prices that catch my eye are Italy to win, or Ireland to finish last.
Everything I said about group B applies here. Spain are the fair favs but playing Italy in the first match gives the Italians an edge and I think this group could end up coming to goal differential. Croatia is not an easy out while Ireland, simply enough, is. Some prices that catch my eye are Italy to win, or Ireland to finish last.
It's trendy around here but I like France to run through this group and England to fall flat. Three lions really have no squad to speak of this year which creates some nice value in fading them. Some prices that catch my eye are France to win, Ukraine to qualify, or England to finish last.
It's trendy around here but I like France to run through this group and England to fall flat. Three lions really have no squad to speak of this year which creates some nice value in fading them. Some prices that catch my eye are France to win, Ukraine to qualify, or England to finish last.
I will be around to post my actual bets; those are my thoughts as of now. For international tournaments I often take stabs at correct scores in round 1 since they are lower scoring and easier to predict. Then, after seeing a game from each squad, take a stab at some goal-scorers. The books don't adjust these props enough based on where players are playing and opps they are getting.
I will be around to post my actual bets; those are my thoughts as of now. For international tournaments I often take stabs at correct scores in round 1 since they are lower scoring and easier to predict. Then, after seeing a game from each squad, take a stab at some goal-scorers. The books don't adjust these props enough based on where players are playing and opps they are getting.
i played germany and the netherlands to advance at +100 last week. probably a pretty popular play and i know portugal may screw me but i thought it was worth a play.
i played germany and the netherlands to advance at +100 last week. probably a pretty popular play and i know portugal may screw me but i thought it was worth a play.
i played germany and the netherlands to advance at +100 last week. probably a pretty popular play and i know portugal may screw me but i thought it was worth a play.
good luck.
I am pretty ignorant in footy is that a bet that both have to advance or is it seperate wagers?
i played germany and the netherlands to advance at +100 last week. probably a pretty popular play and i know portugal may screw me but i thought it was worth a play.
good luck.
I am pretty ignorant in footy is that a bet that both have to advance or is it seperate wagers?
benhogan 5dimes has it as a future bet; looks pretty good to me. I looked hard but already had Holland to win the group so not going to double dip.
I have my futures / group play bets in, all for 1 unit. 1 unit doesn't mean I risk 1 unit for each play or play 'to win' 1 unit each play. I weight each bet so that it has the same investment value as other bets. 1 unit on a +100 bet means I bet 1 unit to win 1 unit. 1 unit on a +200 bet means 0.67 units to win 1.33 units. 1 unit on a -150 bet means 1.2 units to win 0.8 units and so forth...
benhogan 5dimes has it as a future bet; looks pretty good to me. I looked hard but already had Holland to win the group so not going to double dip.
I have my futures / group play bets in, all for 1 unit. 1 unit doesn't mean I risk 1 unit for each play or play 'to win' 1 unit each play. I weight each bet so that it has the same investment value as other bets. 1 unit on a +100 bet means I bet 1 unit to win 1 unit. 1 unit on a +200 bet means 0.67 units to win 1.33 units. 1 unit on a -150 bet means 1.2 units to win 0.8 units and so forth...
This was sitting at +400 in my book so I laid off but it has moved back up to a number I can bet. That should be everything for me pre-tournament barring major line movements.
This was sitting at +400 in my book so I laid off but it has moved back up to a number I can bet. That should be everything for me pre-tournament barring major line movements.
Started locking in a few plays but waiting on some team totals to be posted at 5dimes. I have a lot of leans toward a team and a total which means that the team total makes the most sense for that match. For the record, I have Russia +125 & Holland -1 +112 locked in. Will update formally once I can get TT's for the early matches.
Started locking in a few plays but waiting on some team totals to be posted at 5dimes. I have a lot of leans toward a team and a total which means that the team total makes the most sense for that match. For the record, I have Russia +125 & Holland -1 +112 locked in. Will update formally once I can get TT's for the early matches.
I really like the under in this match as well as the underdogs. To me, this is a toss-up of a game that will be played extremely conservatively. With that in mind, I'm getting a great price for a score-less host squad that has a ton of pressure on them today. 0-0 is the most likely score but maybe the Greeks get something on the counter?
Russia +125 vs Croatia
I locked this is earlier in the week and unfortunately the line has moved dramatically against me (it's moved against all favs this week actually). I'm not worried but I will not add anything. The Russians are the better team and I just hope that round 1 conservatism doesn't overpower their talent mismatch here.
I really like the under in this match as well as the underdogs. To me, this is a toss-up of a game that will be played extremely conservatively. With that in mind, I'm getting a great price for a score-less host squad that has a ton of pressure on them today. 0-0 is the most likely score but maybe the Greeks get something on the counter?
Russia +125 vs Croatia
I locked this is earlier in the week and unfortunately the line has moved dramatically against me (it's moved against all favs this week actually). I'm not worried but I will not add anything. The Russians are the better team and I just hope that round 1 conservatism doesn't overpower their talent mismatch here.
Couldn't resist adding to Russia as the line continues to move. However, with the heavy rains I am playing it safe; added 1 unit of Russia pk -129.
Somewhat unfortunate start to the tournament for my first bet but overall I can't complain. Greece still have a shot to qualify and Poland have a chance to finish last. You never really know....
Couldn't resist adding to Russia as the line continues to move. However, with the heavy rains I am playing it safe; added 1 unit of Russia pk -129.
Somewhat unfortunate start to the tournament for my first bet but overall I can't complain. Greece still have a shot to qualify and Poland have a chance to finish last. You never really know....
Just a completely different class here between these two teams so I'm willing to lay a goal. Unfortunately the line has moved against me but I'm going to keep it simple since it's still early; should be a dominate performance by the Orange.
Germany to keep a clean sheet +184 vs Portugal
I'm not too high on Portugal and think Germany completely outclass them. However, I'll play an angle that incorporates the conservative nature of the first round with the team I think is better.
Just a completely different class here between these two teams so I'm willing to lay a goal. Unfortunately the line has moved against me but I'm going to keep it simple since it's still early; should be a dominate performance by the Orange.
Germany to keep a clean sheet +184 vs Portugal
I'm not too high on Portugal and think Germany completely outclass them. However, I'll play an angle that incorporates the conservative nature of the first round with the team I think is better.
Similar to Russia, it's hard to pass up all of this line movement. I was tempted to add the unit on an alternate, aggressive line like -1.5 or -2 but I just stuck with the money line -130 for 1 unit. So, I now have the Netherlands -130 (1 unit) & -1 +112 (1 unit).
The Portugal / Germany line hasn't moved at all and I don't think I would add much regardless. Let's hope for another winning day.
Similar to Russia, it's hard to pass up all of this line movement. I was tempted to add the unit on an alternate, aggressive line like -1.5 or -2 but I just stuck with the money line -130 for 1 unit. So, I now have the Netherlands -130 (1 unit) & -1 +112 (1 unit).
The Portugal / Germany line hasn't moved at all and I don't think I would add much regardless. Let's hope for another winning day.
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