COPA Record: 30/22/1
YTD: +25.19
More detailed write ups to follow
Vasco de Gama -1.75 (-113)
Vasco de Gama o/2.75 (-126)
Vasco returns to play at home with an 0/1 record in Copa. So far . . . teams playing at home after losing the first game of the Group stage are finding their marks. . . and Allianza Lima cannot be in the right mind set to handle Vasco. Too much trouble at home with Lima's league . . . strikes by players who haven't been paid . . . a coach who, with a loss, will almost assuredly be gone . . . too many distractions ... heck, half of the team just arrived after having their travel arrangements cancelled. I'll take the trend for the over bet and I'll fade Allianza on the -1.75.
From my 2/24 summary copa post ... Vasco and Allianza fit this mold . . .
Observations
1. 27 matches have been played in Group play . . . Overs are the rule so far and not the exception - this will likely change but so long as there are still several "2nd games" for a lot of teams, the trend likely will continue. So ... let's look for teams playing their second Copa match and think "over."
2. Of the 27 matches, the goal breakdown has been as follows:
0-0 1 match . . . shitty Zamora v. boring Boca
0-1 0 matches
1-0 3 matches
1-1 4 matches
All the rest have gone over 2 goals . .. that's 19 matches.
Need to look at offensive output last year for round 3 matches of Group play to see if things tighten up like my butt at the proctologist's office.
3. Teams who are held scoreless away generally perform well and score in their second game ... excluding shitty teams like Chivas and Zamora.
Re the state of Peru soccer for Allianza ...