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Looking at the last 10 games for the starting pitchers, 15 have gone Under, only 3 have gone Over. Last 10 recent meetings, 9 have gone Under, only 1 has gone Over. Last 10 recent games for each team, 13 have gone Under, only 7 have gone Over. Add to that the Under is 40-15-1 in Danleys last 56 games behind home plate. Under 7.5 |
Machinist | 1 |
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Thanks for your work in this thread Canis, and to the others as well, although nice to find the profitable L5 game system play, it exists too rarely enough for me to be interested in it...
Although I didn't post them, it looks like both the L10 Over System and Top Under plays lost today. Feel free anyone to keep tracking them in here, but for now, I'm letting it go and looking into other ideas. It was great to learn about the SDQL database site, thanks again.
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Machinist | 87 |
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APR 18 No Over play today, Over System at 6-2. Under System at 0-1 Top Under bet today: 2. NYY (-2) + TB (-13) = -15, bet Under 7.5 |
Machinist | 87 |
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Top Under bet for APR 17 result: 1. SEA (-17.5) + TEX (-21) = -38.5, bet Under 9, lost Under System at 0-1 (I'm not going to include the past Under System results of 5-1 as listed in post #63, because those were not posted pre-game time, but I think it's important to remember that they're there.) Thanks to everyone for contributing their knowledge to this thread. Feel free to add any info or comments. I'd like to keep tracking both the Over and Under systems for now even though I think the Over one will turn out to be a non-moneymaker and the Under one will... just a gut feeling...
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Machinist | 87 |
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On a side note, there must be a way to use that SDQL thingy to make some serious cash. I mean, put a supercomputer to the task to try out every combo of parameters in every kind of way and sort according to the most profitable ways and you've got the gold pot at the end of the rainbow. :)
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Machinist | 87 |
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Sounds good BCap888, with the +$6,550 profit over the last 100 games in the system, it looks like a moneymaker. Feel free to begin your own thread tracking it if you'd like. Just curious, what do you think of the under system started today? Any way of doing an SDQL with it? |
Machinist | 87 |
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Quote Originally Posted by BCap888:
Not sure what you mean? Just wondering what the qualifiers are for the games you bet on with your system? Why are those games in particular bet on to go under? I'm new at this whole SDQL thing so it's hard for me to look at the query and figure out exactly what it means... |
Machinist | 87 |
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BCap888, it looks like that system you posted had a 56-39-5 record: 56 Unders = +28,000 39 Overs = -$21,450 = +$6,550 profit What were the parameters for betting? |
Machinist | 87 |
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Quote Originally Posted by BCap888:
This is the query I was working on that I posted about, it's for unders. Thanks BCap888, I'll look into it. |
Machinist | 87 |
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The difference with this Under system is that there are no qualifiers, it's just the game with the teams with the most total runs under the book totals in the last 10 games. I suppose that on a day with only a few games to pick from that one wouldn't play, unless there is a game with very negative totals to choose from. It would probably be a fluid thing, variable, and up to the person picking the game. That's what would make this system hard to back test in that there aren't exact qualifiers like +10 and +40 in the Over system... But anyways, I'm going to track it for a while... |
Machinist | 87 |
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That should be:
SEA (-17.5) + TEX (-21) = -38.5, bet Under 9 (forgot the minus in front of SEA number), corrected now. |
Machinist | 87 |
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Starting a new system in here based on the top Under play of the day in here: APR 17 SEA (17.5) + TEX (-21) = -38.5, bet Under 9 Let's see how she goes. :) |
Machinist | 87 |
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Thanks CanisMajor.
No plays today, right. I'm sure that there are good Under plays to be made using the exact same system. For example, yesterday the top Under play was: SEA (-18.5) + TEX (-18) = -36.5, bet Under 6.5, win and for Apr 15 the top Under play was: SEA (-12.5) + TEX (-14) = -26.5, bet Under 8.5, win and for Apr 14 the top Under play was: SEA (-8) + TEX (-15.5) = -23.5, bet Under 9, win and for Apr 13 the top Under play was: TB (-22.5) + CIN (-10) = -32.5, bet Under 7.5, lost and for Apr 12 the top Under play was: TB (-17.5) + CIN (-8.5) = -26 bet Under 7.5, win and for Apr 11 the top Under play was: TB (-8.5) + CIN (-5.5) = -14 bet Under 7, win Hmmmmmm...so that was 5-1 over the last 6 days, not too bad. :) I think you may be on to something here... It's interesting... Orhane, or anyone else, would you be able to do another SDQL for a top Under play of the day, based on the last 10 games total, but this time for "total under the book totals"? It would seem, based on the last day sample, that playing the top Under would be a moneymaker. As orhane's SDQL for this thread's system has shown, it actually lost money over the last 100 games played, so I am eager to find a winning system to replace it. This looks like it may be the one. Thanks for the question CanisMajor, it looks like we may have a winner here. :)
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Machinist | 87 |
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I think there is an advantage to be had in placing bets with this system as early as possible when the lines come out. What likely happens is that as the day progresses, a lot of money gets put on the overs for these games, because people see the recent over trends and love betting overs. Then the books move the O/U line up in response, but you already have the over at a lower number, which helps you win more bets in the long run, than most playing later on. |
Machinist | 87 |
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8. WAS (28.5) + MIA (17) = 45.5, bet Over 6.5, win System at 6-2, +$1900 |
Machinist | 87 |
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Quote Originally Posted by CanisMajor: Okay, so I am confused. What do you mean by 'book totals'? Each game has a book O/U total. Today's game pick has a book O/U total of 6.5 If the score ends up at 8 runs total (3 runs + 5 runs), that would be 1.5 over the book total (8 is +1.5 runs over the book total). You do that for all of the last 10 games for the 2 teams in the game to see how many runs it has gone over, or under the book totals, in total.
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Machinist | 87 |
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Quote Originally Posted by CanisMajor: Cool. Now off to try and find a way to automate this. I think orhane's original SQDL already does this, which is good in one way, but unfortunate in another, because if it's correct, it shows that in the long run, this system has not been profitable. :(
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Machinist | 87 |
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Quote Originally Posted by CanisMajor: and each team has 10 + today's O/U of 6.5 Just to clarify the system, each team has to, in total, have a minimum of over 10 runs over the book totals in their previous 10 games. They don't have to be "10 + today's O/U of 6.5", which you may be implying would be over 16.5. I may be misunderstanding your question, but hopefully this will clear things up either way... |
Machinist | 87 |
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Quote Originally Posted by CanisMajor: Just checking my math here. I have WAS 28.5 and MIA 17 = 45.5 and each team has 10 + today's O/U of 6.5 so the play is Over 6.5. Did I do that correctly? Yes.
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Machinist | 87 |
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It's interesting how when I checked out orhane's original SDQL link again today, I just noticed that it also looks at today's games and has already correctly identified the WAS/MIA game as a system play, before the game has been played.
That makes me want to trust it as more accurate than I may have thought, as it agreed with what I had calculated for today. |
Machinist | 87 |
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