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Our 2 deck system is play heavy at 10 card advantage. Increase bets incrementally as advantage rises. Not a fan of shoes as most dealers leave a deck or more behind the cut card. Although advantage decks do allow for many more rounds of hands to be dealt before shuffle
Key is to change basic strategy to count specific strategies. Using red hi-lo system and advanced strategy index
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stevo1 | 96 |
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You have to watch the amount of cards left to play in the shoe and adjust count based on that approximation. If you get to high advantage early and have 3/4 of shoe left u divide by 2. Middle of shoe = true count and as you get deeper towards cut card I increase advantage by percentage of cards left cut in half (eg 8 becomes 12). Play 5 min table with limit at $500. Starting wager at 25 and adjust bet to advantage / disadvantage. Largest bet at 8x starting wager
Keys are playing multiple hands or teams to increase advantage exposure. I prefer double deck with dealers that allow deep look into those decks - don't leave too many cards under the cut - reshuffle card Had too go to whale system where we have a single player at each table in pit and single big bettor to table as count gets to premium advantages to play heavy and not let pit bosses get overly concerned with a number of players varying their bets to such large degrees and together on certain hands
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stevo1 | 96 |
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Vegas is not going to post a line with a team that made a heck of a run last year and beat stanford earlier and take a public beating here with the late night public favorite. Playing on the Vegas' side. See a 10 point Belmont win and the value seems to be with the seawolves here.
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300greekspartan | 24 |
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AA seawolves cover most of their games in their tourney. See a 75-65 Belmont win. Taking the value here. Hope Fossman can get his share for the cover.
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SWaTX731 | 172 |
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Raiders, you got alean?
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300greekspartan | 24 |
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Have 3 Oregon players that I watched in high school that are solid players but lack either d1 skills or size. These guys will not play a large roll for the seawolves though. I am leaning on taking the points as I see a 75-65 game.Cover hinges on Fossman getting open looks behind the arch as there isn't much offensive besides him.
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300greekspartan | 24 |
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Seawolves are DII school and are 4-0 against some pretty poor teams. The one game that should allow for some evaluation is a 61-57 exhibition loss to Troy in Alabama. Watching this tourney over the years, Alaska gets a little homecooking and plays the late game. They will play hard and usually play teams tough at home. Fossman is their only true scorer and their only true big man, Liam only gets limited minutes (about 20 minutes) and gets some garbage buckets but not a great offensive threat.
Not a great team on the boards and lives and dies on their perimeter defense. I think Belmont may be too athletic but 16 seems like a fair number. This is their yearly highlight as their only opportunity for some national attention and they have had some success against the spread in this tourney due to their poor perception by the public. |
300greekspartan | 24 |
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My book graded UMASS as a push at -14
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aznnotorious | 31 |
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Neil is the best read on the forum. Been betting college basketball for over 10 years now and have based most of my handicapping on statistical analysis and situations but always read his posts before placing wagers on games to see if his insights include any angles that I am missing. His knowledge of coaching styles and matchups is bar none the best on the board and add alot of his information in my own notebook on teams. Some statistical probability to think about in terms of gambling that has to be considered: 60% win percentage long term is an incredibly profitable clip in which ones bankroll will be at its highest point roughly around 18-22% of the time. Short term win percentages will fluctuate drastically even among the most consistent winning cappers. Short term numbers will roughly stay within a standard deviation of the norm of 60% wins 70% of the time and the expectation of a 5-0 or 0-5 night can be expected close to 1/3 of the time. This accounts for bankroll fluctuations. The true gambler realizes that profit is derived form the long term grind of the advantage of their capping system. Overreaction to the short term anomalies shows ignorance towards the true nature of sports gambling. The key to success is creating an advantage through a handicapping protocol or system which gives you an advantage over the house and the juice which long term profits can be generated and the realization that this a marathon to reach expected profit margins which will always include the extremes of great days and bad days. Another factor which is vital to profit is creating a betting system which relatively adheres to the principles of the Kelly Criterion for wagers. Many differ on the exact utilization of the criterion but for argument sake your wagers should range from 2-5% of your total bankroll with standard unit being the most predictable variable of reaching maximum profit expectancy. Following the Kelly criterion eliminates bankruptcy as a bad bet on a "big" game (far more units than normal" will not hamstring your season and create the mindset of chasing bad money.
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nropp11 | 79 |
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over a little earlier then expected
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KyleSingler | 2 |
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Houston rolls and game goes over by 7 minutes in 4th quarter so I can finish watching Raiders embarrass the chargers
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KyleSingler | 2 |
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UC Davis is going struggle. Lost to the Academy of the Arts in a home exhibition game. The Urban Knights haven't beat anybody I think they ended 1-31 last year playing an independent mainly D-II schedule |
Upside | 7 |
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what book is giving you ncaa lines so early? Would love to know because have 3 online books for line shopping but none have the balls to post overnight lines.
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swizzol | 27 |
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Utah -2.5 Boise -2
More later |
KyleSingler | 9 |
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love the Pack in this situation also. Lippencott and Taua out is not worth a 3 point line movement because the 2 main keys for the run attack is a very solid offensive line who are fired up due to the lack of respect they get (None on WAC 1st team) and a system in the pIstol offense that makes you respect all 6 potential weapons especially Kaepernick. They have had great success with any RB that thrown out there over the last 4 years. I know this coaching staff and they haven't lived up to expectations in bowl games the last few years and are going to make a statement in this bowl game against a former conference coach. Wolfpack 48 SMU 27 |
Booshasta | 35 |
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Utes -5.5 2H Biggest play of the year so far for me
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mrcub1221 | 4 |
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Another Vegas early over 7-3 YTD |
KyleSingler | 6 |
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BYU / Nevada ended 73 points above the number. Teams tend to play on average 13% more uptempo here the last two years (based off their numbers coming into the tourney / not year end #'s) in this tourney. Adding Tulsa > 122.5 |
KyleSingler | 6 |
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11 pt St. Mary's win 6-3 YTD Las Vegas tournament heads up: Teams playing at the Orleans in this tournament have gone OVER the number 11 out of the last 13 games. Have watched this tournament live for the last 4 years and have cleaned up on taking the over in these games. Nobody in Vegas goes to these games and guys can play free and easy in this situation. BYU / Nevada game went over with 9:35 left in the game. |
KyleSingler | 6 |
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Adding St. Marys -5
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KyleSingler | 6 |
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