we're limping into the end of the season with our worst week of the season coming off a losing week before that. we did, however, warn subscribers that our handicapping style is not well suited to the final stage of the season.
as for this week, with christmas and in-laws coming into town, we won't be able to get out a full newsletter. i have some time today so i may just do some quick reactions to the lines. depending on how much time i have later in the week, i may or may not bet the games. i'm not going to push it given the way things have gone the last two weeks. if we end the season here, overall, still a strong effort by everyone involved with the newsletter.
of course, we'll be back next season with a new newsletter and increased subscription rates.
we're limping into the end of the season with our worst week of the season coming off a losing week before that. we did, however, warn subscribers that our handicapping style is not well suited to the final stage of the season.
as for this week, with christmas and in-laws coming into town, we won't be able to get out a full newsletter. i have some time today so i may just do some quick reactions to the lines. depending on how much time i have later in the week, i may or may not bet the games. i'm not going to push it given the way things have gone the last two weeks. if we end the season here, overall, still a strong effort by everyone involved with the newsletter.
of course, we'll be back next season with a new newsletter and increased subscription rates.
first, i should explain why we bet Arizona after making it pretty clear in the newsletter that we didn't like them at all. as subscribers know, the newsletter is just an initial gut reaction to the lines. i try and provide leans and occasionally decide on a bet at that point but i like to keep reading about the teams all the way to sunday before making a bet. i don't like to go against my initial lean or opinion that i don't like a team, but sometimes i do. the initial lean that betting AZ with a shitty Qb and no RB against a fired up defense in a must win game for seattle was a bad idea. and it was.
however, one of our favorite angles came into play last week. as we've said, the Qb position in the NFL is, in most cases, the most overrated position in sports on any given day. so, if a team is going with a backup that nobody likes or has heard of, and vegas is going to move the line too much, we'll often take that team. so, we decided to bet the three games where this occurred last week: chicago, houston and arizona. on second thought (and first thought), lindley vs. Arizona should have been a dealbreaker, but because the line went to 9.5, we decided to just go with all of them. the good news is the angle went 2-1. over the years, this has been a profitable way to bet nfl games.
as an example, cutler has been horrible. he kills chicago each week. i don't care if they broguth in a senile jim mcmahon to replace him, the line should not have moved against chicago for pulling cutler. same for anyone who replaces fitzpatrick.
Det @ GB -7.5 went against GB as a big road favorite as we've done a lot. almost worked out, but since we can't buy a backdoor cover to save our lvies this season, once Gb hit 20, it was all over for the inept TB squad. i think this is too many points as well. we did go against detroit successfully last week but, as we mentioned above, only because of the line value. detroit has a great defense and i'd look at a much better defense getting more than 7 in a big game any day.
Jax @ Houston -10 it's one thing when casey casum or whomever is starting for houston is 6.5 point dogs to a team that isn't that much better than them. but -10 against a team that is still playing hard? crazy line. back me up, getty. if Jax can somehow figure out a way to skow down watt (a big if, i know), i think jax could win this game. of course, if Watt and foster have their way with jax again, houston could cover. i'll be tempted to play Jax.
Indy @ Tenn +7 oh garbage, tennessee is back on sunday. i'm tempted to take indy here. Indy got pounded by dallas last week but they clearly weren't into that game. they don't need this one either but i'm willing to bet that pagano and luck aren't the type who will want to go into the playoffs with two terrible losses and any loss to tennessee would be terrible. this might be our first bet against tennessee all season, i think. that means they win by 20. indy looks like a decent play here.
first, i should explain why we bet Arizona after making it pretty clear in the newsletter that we didn't like them at all. as subscribers know, the newsletter is just an initial gut reaction to the lines. i try and provide leans and occasionally decide on a bet at that point but i like to keep reading about the teams all the way to sunday before making a bet. i don't like to go against my initial lean or opinion that i don't like a team, but sometimes i do. the initial lean that betting AZ with a shitty Qb and no RB against a fired up defense in a must win game for seattle was a bad idea. and it was.
however, one of our favorite angles came into play last week. as we've said, the Qb position in the NFL is, in most cases, the most overrated position in sports on any given day. so, if a team is going with a backup that nobody likes or has heard of, and vegas is going to move the line too much, we'll often take that team. so, we decided to bet the three games where this occurred last week: chicago, houston and arizona. on second thought (and first thought), lindley vs. Arizona should have been a dealbreaker, but because the line went to 9.5, we decided to just go with all of them. the good news is the angle went 2-1. over the years, this has been a profitable way to bet nfl games.
as an example, cutler has been horrible. he kills chicago each week. i don't care if they broguth in a senile jim mcmahon to replace him, the line should not have moved against chicago for pulling cutler. same for anyone who replaces fitzpatrick.
Det @ GB -7.5 went against GB as a big road favorite as we've done a lot. almost worked out, but since we can't buy a backdoor cover to save our lvies this season, once Gb hit 20, it was all over for the inept TB squad. i think this is too many points as well. we did go against detroit successfully last week but, as we mentioned above, only because of the line value. detroit has a great defense and i'd look at a much better defense getting more than 7 in a big game any day.
Jax @ Houston -10 it's one thing when casey casum or whomever is starting for houston is 6.5 point dogs to a team that isn't that much better than them. but -10 against a team that is still playing hard? crazy line. back me up, getty. if Jax can somehow figure out a way to skow down watt (a big if, i know), i think jax could win this game. of course, if Watt and foster have their way with jax again, houston could cover. i'll be tempted to play Jax.
Indy @ Tenn +7 oh garbage, tennessee is back on sunday. i'm tempted to take indy here. Indy got pounded by dallas last week but they clearly weren't into that game. they don't need this one either but i'm willing to bet that pagano and luck aren't the type who will want to go into the playoffs with two terrible losses and any loss to tennessee would be terrible. this might be our first bet against tennessee all season, i think. that means they win by 20. indy looks like a decent play here.
NYJ @ Miami -6 looks like a fair line but the jets are pretty erratic at this point. don't have much of an opinion rifght now except to say miami hasn't covered a 6 point spread since mid november and the jets have been playing better and closer games recently.
Carolina @ Atlanta -4 pretty sad that this game is for the division title. i would note that carolina is in this due to a 3 game winning streak. but, it's been a pretty unimpressive 3 games. beating NO now doesn't have much meaning. other than that, they struggled to beat a horrible TB team and cleveland with manziel. i think they might be a little over valued going on the road in a place that can be a tough place to play. Atlanta is not as hot, i suppose, but have a tougher schedule recently getting to this point. i think Atlanta is the better team now and at home. wouldn't like giving more than 3 though. possible play on atlanta.
Chicago @ Minnesota -6.5 back to cutler. who the hell knows how that will go. will he mail it in because he's pissed off? or will he use the benching as a learning experience and try to go out with a win. and will the team play hard for him? i tend to think cutler plays better after his benching with the offseason coming up. it's human nature. if so, this is too many points.
SD @ KC -2.5 KC has not been good to us lately. SD is a resilient team but with all of the talk about rivers being injured and the way that defense is playing, it may be too much to ask to go into KC and win this one. my initial reaction is KC is a bargain at under 3.
Philly @ NYG -3 since we aren't very good at the last three weeks of the season, this is probably one we should stay away from. but, i still don't get how the giants are good all of the sudden. i think philly is the better team getting points.
NO @ TB +3.5 not sure why NO is favored. this has to be their most disappointing season since the old days when they were terrible. 8-8 wins the division and they couldn't do that? pathetic. not sure what their motivation is for this one. of course, TB is horrible, motivation or not. probably a good one to avoid.
Stl @ Seattle -13 St Louis let us down in a big way last week but they've been good to us all season so we can't complain. settle still needs to win for placement in the playoffs but they have to have a little bit of a letdown after overcoming a bad start to basically win the division last week. St Louis has been very good against the better teams in the league recently. might have to take these points for old time's sake.
NYJ @ Miami -6 looks like a fair line but the jets are pretty erratic at this point. don't have much of an opinion rifght now except to say miami hasn't covered a 6 point spread since mid november and the jets have been playing better and closer games recently.
Carolina @ Atlanta -4 pretty sad that this game is for the division title. i would note that carolina is in this due to a 3 game winning streak. but, it's been a pretty unimpressive 3 games. beating NO now doesn't have much meaning. other than that, they struggled to beat a horrible TB team and cleveland with manziel. i think they might be a little over valued going on the road in a place that can be a tough place to play. Atlanta is not as hot, i suppose, but have a tougher schedule recently getting to this point. i think Atlanta is the better team now and at home. wouldn't like giving more than 3 though. possible play on atlanta.
Chicago @ Minnesota -6.5 back to cutler. who the hell knows how that will go. will he mail it in because he's pissed off? or will he use the benching as a learning experience and try to go out with a win. and will the team play hard for him? i tend to think cutler plays better after his benching with the offseason coming up. it's human nature. if so, this is too many points.
SD @ KC -2.5 KC has not been good to us lately. SD is a resilient team but with all of the talk about rivers being injured and the way that defense is playing, it may be too much to ask to go into KC and win this one. my initial reaction is KC is a bargain at under 3.
Philly @ NYG -3 since we aren't very good at the last three weeks of the season, this is probably one we should stay away from. but, i still don't get how the giants are good all of the sudden. i think philly is the better team getting points.
NO @ TB +3.5 not sure why NO is favored. this has to be their most disappointing season since the old days when they were terrible. 8-8 wins the division and they couldn't do that? pathetic. not sure what their motivation is for this one. of course, TB is horrible, motivation or not. probably a good one to avoid.
Stl @ Seattle -13 St Louis let us down in a big way last week but they've been good to us all season so we can't complain. settle still needs to win for placement in the playoffs but they have to have a little bit of a letdown after overcoming a bad start to basically win the division last week. St Louis has been very good against the better teams in the league recently. might have to take these points for old time's sake.
AZ @ SF -6 probably a stay away game but those points look temtpting. we thought SF would shut it down last week being out of the playoffs and with all of their problems. they did, but only in the second half. as they are one week closer to golf season and coming off another embarrassing loss, not sure why they play any better this week. AZ's offense is terrible with lindley and i guess the 4th string Qb is playing this one, but this isn't exactly the seattle defense trying to win the division. i think this line is an overreaction to the way AZ"s offense played last week. the same scrubs are playing, but this is a much different matchup. probably should stay away but there seems to be value with AZ.
those are all of the lined games at pinnacle. let's see what else we have.
Cleveland @ Baltimore not lined because cleveland doesn't have a QB. not sure they've had one most of the season. the line will be high because cleveland is a mess and baltimore is still in the race. i'd say it should be 8.
Dallas @ Washington why no line here? dallas could improve their playoff positioning with a win so they should be motivated. i'm sure washington would love to finish the season beating dallas like they beat philly last week. hard to give an opinion without knowing why there is no line and what it is when they set one.
Oakland @ Denver not sure why there is no line here either, unelss peyton retired last night from old age and weak arm. i'd watch for the inflated line expecting a bounceback for denver. if this line gets too high, more than 14, might have to take the points.
Cincy @ Pitt not sure why there is no line here either. maybe pinnacle is just slow after a MNF game. anyway, the winner wins the division so it's still a pretty big game although both teams are already in the playoffs. we'll be looking forward to betting against Pitt and their shitty defense once the playoffs start. as for this game, both teams are playing well at the right time. i'd look for a line of Pitt -3. since they are at home and probably seen as about even in terms of quality. i think cincy is the better team but they've won 4 straight road games. not sure they keep doing that after a huge MNF win against denver.
i think that's it for now. i didn't think i'd necessarily be betting this weekend but i like some of these matchups so hopefully i'll have more time later in the week.
AZ @ SF -6 probably a stay away game but those points look temtpting. we thought SF would shut it down last week being out of the playoffs and with all of their problems. they did, but only in the second half. as they are one week closer to golf season and coming off another embarrassing loss, not sure why they play any better this week. AZ's offense is terrible with lindley and i guess the 4th string Qb is playing this one, but this isn't exactly the seattle defense trying to win the division. i think this line is an overreaction to the way AZ"s offense played last week. the same scrubs are playing, but this is a much different matchup. probably should stay away but there seems to be value with AZ.
those are all of the lined games at pinnacle. let's see what else we have.
Cleveland @ Baltimore not lined because cleveland doesn't have a QB. not sure they've had one most of the season. the line will be high because cleveland is a mess and baltimore is still in the race. i'd say it should be 8.
Dallas @ Washington why no line here? dallas could improve their playoff positioning with a win so they should be motivated. i'm sure washington would love to finish the season beating dallas like they beat philly last week. hard to give an opinion without knowing why there is no line and what it is when they set one.
Oakland @ Denver not sure why there is no line here either, unelss peyton retired last night from old age and weak arm. i'd watch for the inflated line expecting a bounceback for denver. if this line gets too high, more than 14, might have to take the points.
Cincy @ Pitt not sure why there is no line here either. maybe pinnacle is just slow after a MNF game. anyway, the winner wins the division so it's still a pretty big game although both teams are already in the playoffs. we'll be looking forward to betting against Pitt and their shitty defense once the playoffs start. as for this game, both teams are playing well at the right time. i'd look for a line of Pitt -3. since they are at home and probably seen as about even in terms of quality. i think cincy is the better team but they've won 4 straight road games. not sure they keep doing that after a huge MNF win against denver.
i think that's it for now. i didn't think i'd necessarily be betting this weekend but i like some of these matchups so hopefully i'll have more time later in the week.
wait, that's not it. how could we forget buffalo, our favorite team who just cost us money by losing outright to oakland? but like the rams, Buffalo has been very good to us so we won't complain about them either.
on a related note, if we can get one thing right during an nfl season, it almost guarantees a winning season for CDS.com, and unless we go overboard this week and get crushed again, it will be another winning season. if we can find those middle of the road teams that are underrated that get line value most weeks, the rams, the bills, the vikings, then it should be a good season.
anyway Buffalo finishes @ New England. the game means nothing for the patriots. but i jsut went back a ferw seasons and noticed that NE won their last 4 week 17 games and none have been close. not sure if those games were meaningless too but i'm not counting on NE to mail it in. i'd say the line should be 8.5. should probably stay away.
wait, that's not it. how could we forget buffalo, our favorite team who just cost us money by losing outright to oakland? but like the rams, Buffalo has been very good to us so we won't complain about them either.
on a related note, if we can get one thing right during an nfl season, it almost guarantees a winning season for CDS.com, and unless we go overboard this week and get crushed again, it will be another winning season. if we can find those middle of the road teams that are underrated that get line value most weeks, the rams, the bills, the vikings, then it should be a good season.
anyway Buffalo finishes @ New England. the game means nothing for the patriots. but i jsut went back a ferw seasons and noticed that NE won their last 4 week 17 games and none have been close. not sure if those games were meaningless too but i'm not counting on NE to mail it in. i'd say the line should be 8.5. should probably stay away.
thanks to steeler fan for the cleveland QB update.
ok, Sandra Day O'Connor for the browns, whomever the f*ck that is. again, when these backups come in, as long as they get a full week of practice, we need to look to play them. is there any real difference on any given day among manziel, hoyer and this guy? i say no. on any given day, any one of them could be better or worse than the other. so, if vegas gives us extra points for what might be a better Qb on this sunday, we take them. that's value.
however, if Carolina just closed at 4 at home against Cleveland, i'd say 8, as i predicted above, would be a fair line for Baltimore if there was no QB injury. 8.5 isn't much of a difference. so i'm not sure this is the situation we are looking for. 9.5, 10, then we'd have to take a strong look at cleveland. but at 8.5, it doesn't seem like vegas is giving us much of an irrational adjustment for shaw.
thanks to steeler fan for the cleveland QB update.
ok, Sandra Day O'Connor for the browns, whomever the f*ck that is. again, when these backups come in, as long as they get a full week of practice, we need to look to play them. is there any real difference on any given day among manziel, hoyer and this guy? i say no. on any given day, any one of them could be better or worse than the other. so, if vegas gives us extra points for what might be a better Qb on this sunday, we take them. that's value.
however, if Carolina just closed at 4 at home against Cleveland, i'd say 8, as i predicted above, would be a fair line for Baltimore if there was no QB injury. 8.5 isn't much of a difference. so i'm not sure this is the situation we are looking for. 9.5, 10, then we'd have to take a strong look at cleveland. but at 8.5, it doesn't seem like vegas is giving us much of an irrational adjustment for shaw.
anyway Buffalo finishes @ New England. the game means nothing for the patriots. but i jsut went back a ferw seasons and noticed that NE won their last 4 week 17 games and none have been close. not sure if those games were meaningless too but i'm not counting on NE to mail it in. i'd say the line should be 8.5. should probably stay away. [/Quote]
I'm thinking with their first round bye and 3 weeks before their next meaningful game Belichick won't let the boys take it easy this game, and seeing as Buffalo have nothing to play for they may treat this game like a spring training game and sit the starters eventually and let the subs play, now I'm sure these subs will play their hearts out to impress for next season but I believe they will be no match for Brady and the boys.
Also, thanks for your write ups CD, I've appreciated your newsletter for a few years now and I'll be sure to renew my subscription as soon as I log out here, I'm hoping to get the early bird rate.
anyway Buffalo finishes @ New England. the game means nothing for the patriots. but i jsut went back a ferw seasons and noticed that NE won their last 4 week 17 games and none have been close. not sure if those games were meaningless too but i'm not counting on NE to mail it in. i'd say the line should be 8.5. should probably stay away. [/Quote]
I'm thinking with their first round bye and 3 weeks before their next meaningful game Belichick won't let the boys take it easy this game, and seeing as Buffalo have nothing to play for they may treat this game like a spring training game and sit the starters eventually and let the subs play, now I'm sure these subs will play their hearts out to impress for next season but I believe they will be no match for Brady and the boys.
Also, thanks for your write ups CD, I've appreciated your newsletter for a few years now and I'll be sure to renew my subscription as soon as I log out here, I'm hoping to get the early bird rate.
I think it's funny that the Falcons are about to win the division title and host a playoff game while the owner is out looking for a new head coach. Apparently, Arthur Blank (who bears an uncanny resemblance to Snidely Whiplash) has already told Mike Smith "thanks for your time and efforts, but it's time for you to go."
What if they make it to the NFC Championship game?
I think it's funny that the Falcons are about to win the division title and host a playoff game while the owner is out looking for a new head coach. Apparently, Arthur Blank (who bears an uncanny resemblance to Snidely Whiplash) has already told Mike Smith "thanks for your time and efforts, but it's time for you to go."
What if they make it to the NFC Championship game?
steeler fan/shrimp hater, having never seen shaw play in the NFl, i'm guessing he's the best QB on the team, unless josh gordon can play QB.
idle, glad you were involved again this season. that reminds me, 2015 CDS.com Newsletter early bird special available today from 3:00 - 3:30. Discover card only.
getty, isn't smith usually on the edge? i think the old rule that you shouldn't fire the coach if he makes the playoffs has an exception if you have alosing record.
so would atlanta likely play detroit? what's the line for that? detroit -2?
steeler fan/shrimp hater, having never seen shaw play in the NFl, i'm guessing he's the best QB on the team, unless josh gordon can play QB.
idle, glad you were involved again this season. that reminds me, 2015 CDS.com Newsletter early bird special available today from 3:00 - 3:30. Discover card only.
getty, isn't smith usually on the edge? i think the old rule that you shouldn't fire the coach if he makes the playoffs has an exception if you have alosing record.
so would atlanta likely play detroit? what's the line for that? detroit -2?
The Texans can make the playoffs with a win and losses by the Ravens and Chargers. It's not beyond the realm of possibility. I still think 10 is too much, but I don't expect Houston to be flat.
That Packers line looks tailor made for people to bite on the dog. Maybe the Lions are content with already getting a playoff spot and will concede the division to the Pack. I've never had much faith in Stafford. In fact a big part of the Lions success this year is asking him to do less instead of more. But it's a game where he'll try to be a hero and throw numerous ill advised passes.
The Texans can make the playoffs with a win and losses by the Ravens and Chargers. It's not beyond the realm of possibility. I still think 10 is too much, but I don't expect Houston to be flat.
That Packers line looks tailor made for people to bite on the dog. Maybe the Lions are content with already getting a playoff spot and will concede the division to the Pack. I've never had much faith in Stafford. In fact a big part of the Lions success this year is asking him to do less instead of more. But it's a game where he'll try to be a hero and throw numerous ill advised passes.
Pittsburgh catches Cinci in a huge letdown spot. Much like the Lions, I think the Bengals are just happy to be playoff bound and could give a rat's behind about over exerting themselves in week 17 to try and win the division.
Pittsburgh catches Cinci in a huge letdown spot. Much like the Lions, I think the Bengals are just happy to be playoff bound and could give a rat's behind about over exerting themselves in week 17 to try and win the division.
i guess that's why NO is favoredd by 3.5. TB needs to go for mariota.
we all know you can't bet on a team just because they have motivation for the playoffs and the other doesn't. that is 50/50 at best. Jax will definitely try to win. they look good at 10.
don't you think that line goes down?
last week, the good news is we put in 3 early bets to lock in lines and got much better lines near key numbers than what was available on sunday.** i can see this ending at closer to 8.5.
i guess that's why NO is favoredd by 3.5. TB needs to go for mariota.
we all know you can't bet on a team just because they have motivation for the playoffs and the other doesn't. that is 50/50 at best. Jax will definitely try to win. they look good at 10.
don't you think that line goes down?
last week, the good news is we put in 3 early bets to lock in lines and got much better lines near key numbers than what was available on sunday.** i can see this ending at closer to 8.5.
Bet Online opened Pitt -3 (120). Good guess on your part.
And yes, Jacksonville seems like a side that the "sharps" would be interested in at 10. I don't think anyone outside the state of Texas would be willing to see Houston as good value at that number.
Bet Online opened Pitt -3 (120). Good guess on your part.
And yes, Jacksonville seems like a side that the "sharps" would be interested in at 10. I don't think anyone outside the state of Texas would be willing to see Houston as good value at that number.
yes, if you win your division, you get a home game if you play in round one. they should probably do away with this rule after this season. it's ridiculous that a team with 11 wins is playing @ a team with 7 wins.
yes, if you win your division, you get a home game if you play in round one. they should probably do away with this rule after this season. it's ridiculous that a team with 11 wins is playing @ a team with 7 wins.
Heading into the off season, the Rams are half a million dollars over the salary cap. And for that you get a 6-9 team heading into the final week of the season? It will be Jeff Fisher's 4th consecutive losing season. In fact, he has only 6 winning seasons in his 20 year coaching career. But somehow, he continues to project the illusion that he is a better coach than his record indicates. Bill Parcells once said "You are what your record says you are." Apparently, no one holds Fisher accountable for it.
Heading into the off season, the Rams are half a million dollars over the salary cap. And for that you get a 6-9 team heading into the final week of the season? It will be Jeff Fisher's 4th consecutive losing season. In fact, he has only 6 winning seasons in his 20 year coaching career. But somehow, he continues to project the illusion that he is a better coach than his record indicates. Bill Parcells once said "You are what your record says you are." Apparently, no one holds Fisher accountable for it.
but, it's down to Houston -9.5 -110 at 5dimes so there should be a buyout or middle opportunity.
i'm starting to get the sense that getty does not like jeff fisher. it's hard for me to argue but the rams do hold a special place in the heart of the CDS.com sports consulting service over the yers so i'll refrain from comment.
but, it's down to Houston -9.5 -110 at 5dimes so there should be a buyout or middle opportunity.
i'm starting to get the sense that getty does not like jeff fisher. it's hard for me to argue but the rams do hold a special place in the heart of the CDS.com sports consulting service over the yers so i'll refrain from comment.
since i have some time today, let's check back with pinnacle and see if some of the lines are up that weren't yesterday:
Pitt is 3.5 we were expecting 3. not sure i like it at 3.5.
New England is -5. obviously low. i can only assume people think NE will lay down. but again, look at their week 17 games over the years. they kill teams.
Dallas is -6. seems right.
Oakland is +14. that's where we thought it would be and might be our breaking point. might take the points at 14. my guess is this goes to 13 or so.
since i have some time today, let's check back with pinnacle and see if some of the lines are up that weren't yesterday:
Pitt is 3.5 we were expecting 3. not sure i like it at 3.5.
New England is -5. obviously low. i can only assume people think NE will lay down. but again, look at their week 17 games over the years. they kill teams.
Dallas is -6. seems right.
Oakland is +14. that's where we thought it would be and might be our breaking point. might take the points at 14. my guess is this goes to 13 or so.
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