New to the forums. However, been betting for a while. I've been messing around with a betting strategy that has been working well for me this season. It's very simple. You bet on good teams that are underdogs. That's it. If there is a match-up and the better team in the league wide standings is listed as the underdog, you bet on them. You can use discretion whether or not you want to use this on good teams with back-to-backs or backup goalies, however I personally believe they are a good opportunity to bet a good team with great value. It may be wise to stay away from betting against hot teams that are lower in the standings as well, but once again it's up to discretion. I used to be a big stock trader, and the saying goes the more simpler the strategy is, the better it is. If you are betting the better team in the standings and are getting them around EV odds or + odds, over the long run you are bound to be positive. If you keep betting + games and go 50/50 on wins/loses, you will be positive. I am going to start tracking it. You are welcome to follow along.
For 12/7:
Islanders ML +135 (1 Unit)
Record: 0 - 0
*Note* I am not betting the Calgary ML tonight because Calgary and MTL are 1 point away from each other in the standings, and MTL is hot while CGY has a backup goalie in. Not worth taking the bet in my opinion, but you are welcome to do it.
Let's see how we do.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Hey all,
New to the forums. However, been betting for a while. I've been messing around with a betting strategy that has been working well for me this season. It's very simple. You bet on good teams that are underdogs. That's it. If there is a match-up and the better team in the league wide standings is listed as the underdog, you bet on them. You can use discretion whether or not you want to use this on good teams with back-to-backs or backup goalies, however I personally believe they are a good opportunity to bet a good team with great value. It may be wise to stay away from betting against hot teams that are lower in the standings as well, but once again it's up to discretion. I used to be a big stock trader, and the saying goes the more simpler the strategy is, the better it is. If you are betting the better team in the standings and are getting them around EV odds or + odds, over the long run you are bound to be positive. If you keep betting + games and go 50/50 on wins/loses, you will be positive. I am going to start tracking it. You are welcome to follow along.
For 12/7:
Islanders ML +135 (1 Unit)
Record: 0 - 0
*Note* I am not betting the Calgary ML tonight because Calgary and MTL are 1 point away from each other in the standings, and MTL is hot while CGY has a backup goalie in. Not worth taking the bet in my opinion, but you are welcome to do it.
If you followed my system perfectly (unlike me >.<) you would be up +0.60 units after tonight with the Calgary win and the Islanders loss.
However, I didn't pick Calgary therefore i'm not counting it towards my own record.
Therefore:
Following me: Islanders ML +130 (Loss) = -1.00 units ( 0 - 1 )
Following my system perfectly: Islanders ML +130 (Loss), Calgary ML +160 (Win) = + 0.60 Units ( 1 - 1)
Lets see how tomorrow works out. I think I'm just going to do every bet in the night that matches the criteria to give us more of a sample size, and leave discretion out of it. But as you can see, if you follow this system perfectly, winning half your games means your positive. Which is always a good thing :)
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Well, looks like I picked the wrong underdog haha
If you followed my system perfectly (unlike me >.<) you would be up +0.60 units after tonight with the Calgary win and the Islanders loss.
However, I didn't pick Calgary therefore i'm not counting it towards my own record.
Therefore:
Following me: Islanders ML +130 (Loss) = -1.00 units ( 0 - 1 )
Following my system perfectly: Islanders ML +130 (Loss), Calgary ML +160 (Win) = + 0.60 Units ( 1 - 1)
Lets see how tomorrow works out. I think I'm just going to do every bet in the night that matches the criteria to give us more of a sample size, and leave discretion out of it. But as you can see, if you follow this system perfectly, winning half your games means your positive. Which is always a good thing :)
Once again, the purpose of this strategy is betting on a team that wins more games than their opponents while risking less and gaining more value per bet. If you bet on the better team in the long run (and most of the time, it's a team that wins more of its games than they lose), you are obviously bound to win more bets. But the thing that makes this system work well is because betting the plus or even every night means if you go 50/50 throughout the season, you will be up money instead of down money. Statistically, I think you can assume that betting on the better team each night will net you more than a 50/50 record by the seasons end, netting you even more cash than if you were to take minus bets. You follow me?
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Once again, the purpose of this strategy is betting on a team that wins more games than their opponents while risking less and gaining more value per bet. If you bet on the better team in the long run (and most of the time, it's a team that wins more of its games than they lose), you are obviously bound to win more bets. But the thing that makes this system work well is because betting the plus or even every night means if you go 50/50 throughout the season, you will be up money instead of down money. Statistically, I think you can assume that betting on the better team each night will net you more than a 50/50 record by the seasons end, netting you even more cash than if you were to take minus bets. You follow me?
What a waste of a come back hopefully the sens can make up for it
The sens didn't net the requirement last night. Only islanders and Calgary did. If you took both of them, you would be up .60 units as of this morning.
I'm going to look at the lines in a little bit and see what tonight's plays are. I'll be back soon.
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Quote Originally Posted by GTD:
What a waste of a come back hopefully the sens can make up for it
The sens didn't net the requirement last night. Only islanders and Calgary did. If you took both of them, you would be up .60 units as of this morning.
I'm going to look at the lines in a little bit and see what tonight's plays are. I'll be back soon.
Take it a step farther...Rank all the teams in 2 columns (home and away) then compare the 2 columns in each matchup.. When the higher ranked team is the dog, play them.....
Quote Originally Posted by YanniKos:
Quite interestingPerhaps you could sort these teams home/away by dividing points obtained from wins / games played
I see where you both are coming from. However, I feel this just complicates the strategy. If this strategy starts failing in the long run, maybe we can adjust it to include these parimaters.
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Quote Originally Posted by Lawton1:
Take it a step farther...Rank all the teams in 2 columns (home and away) then compare the 2 columns in each matchup.. When the higher ranked team is the dog, play them.....
Quote Originally Posted by YanniKos:
Quite interestingPerhaps you could sort these teams home/away by dividing points obtained from wins / games played
I see where you both are coming from. However, I feel this just complicates the strategy. If this strategy starts failing in the long run, maybe we can adjust it to include these parimaters.
I wish you the best but I've been down your road many times... It's not this simple... U can also use this strategy in other sports, especially baseball... What u will find is that your team will be in an unfavorable position or perhaps they simply don't play well on the road... Good luck.
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I wish you the best but I've been down your road many times... It's not this simple... U can also use this strategy in other sports, especially baseball... What u will find is that your team will be in an unfavorable position or perhaps they simply don't play well on the road... Good luck.
This seems like a losing strategy before the new year because it primarily relies on the standings. Will the Islanders finish ahead of the Penguins at the end of the year? Furthermore, so because the Isles were 1 point up in the standings of the Penguins in early December they're the play last night?
Regardless, hope it works out for you.
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This seems like a losing strategy before the new year because it primarily relies on the standings. Will the Islanders finish ahead of the Penguins at the end of the year? Furthermore, so because the Isles were 1 point up in the standings of the Penguins in early December they're the play last night?
going to be a huge losing strategy. what if one team has 1 more point but has played 3 more games played. you think the line doesn't incorporate variables into the line to make such better team the underdog?
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going to be a huge losing strategy. what if one team has 1 more point but has played 3 more games played. you think the line doesn't incorporate variables into the line to make such better team the underdog?
This seems like a losing strategy before the new year because it primarily relies on the standings. Will the Islanders finish ahead of the Penguins at the end of the year? Furthermore, so because the Isles were 1 point up in the standings of the Penguins in early December they're the play last night? Regardless, hope it works out for you.
Quote Originally Posted by sunster19:
going to be a huge losing strategy. what if one team has 1 more point but has played 3 more games played. you think the line doesn't incorporate variables into the line to make such better team the underdog?
I can see why you doubt the strategy, but the only reason why I posted this strategy is because I'm profitable from it so far this year. Take a look at this week alone. On Tuesday night you would of bet Devils for +170, Nashville +145, Islanders +170 giving you a 2 -1 record for +2.15 units. On Wednesday you would have flyers for +115 netting you a 3 - 1 record bringing you to +3.30 units. And then last night, you had Islanders for +135 And Calgary for +160 bringing you to a 4-2 record netting you +3.90 units. And that was just this week alone. If you would if bet favorites and won with that record instead, you would only be sitting under +2.00 units on the week.
And yes, even if they are 1 point above in the standings you should still take it. Hockey is a sport on any given night any team can win. So if two teams are evenly matched, you should take the bet that you risk less to win more. Why? Because it's a coin flip. And if you were to flip a coin, but you win you won more money then you risk every flip, in the long run you will be positive. It's just simple statistics.
I'm going to keep this going throughout the season. Let's see where it ends up in a month or two down the line.
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Quote Originally Posted by ramboo:
This seems like a losing strategy before the new year because it primarily relies on the standings. Will the Islanders finish ahead of the Penguins at the end of the year? Furthermore, so because the Isles were 1 point up in the standings of the Penguins in early December they're the play last night? Regardless, hope it works out for you.
Quote Originally Posted by sunster19:
going to be a huge losing strategy. what if one team has 1 more point but has played 3 more games played. you think the line doesn't incorporate variables into the line to make such better team the underdog?
I can see why you doubt the strategy, but the only reason why I posted this strategy is because I'm profitable from it so far this year. Take a look at this week alone. On Tuesday night you would of bet Devils for +170, Nashville +145, Islanders +170 giving you a 2 -1 record for +2.15 units. On Wednesday you would have flyers for +115 netting you a 3 - 1 record bringing you to +3.30 units. And then last night, you had Islanders for +135 And Calgary for +160 bringing you to a 4-2 record netting you +3.90 units. And that was just this week alone. If you would if bet favorites and won with that record instead, you would only be sitting under +2.00 units on the week.
And yes, even if they are 1 point above in the standings you should still take it. Hockey is a sport on any given night any team can win. So if two teams are evenly matched, you should take the bet that you risk less to win more. Why? Because it's a coin flip. And if you were to flip a coin, but you win you won more money then you risk every flip, in the long run you will be positive. It's just simple statistics.
I'm going to keep this going throughout the season. Let's see where it ends up in a month or two down the line.
It's to simplistic for the NHL tbh, short term success can just be noise. Checking your criteria with SDQL a dog team facing an opposing team with less points (wins).
Season to date you would be 83-69 and +31.96 units which is awesome but checking the previous 5 seasons you would be 638-891 and -147.32 units.
To me it looks like a lucky streak for this angle to start the season and nothing more than just noise overall as far as this angle is concerned.
Dogs win about 42% of the time and they win at about 42% of the time with this angle blindly. The books will make a killing on you unless you are getting better than +140 odds on average.
Dogs can be profitable but this angle will burn your bankroll longterm.
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It's to simplistic for the NHL tbh, short term success can just be noise. Checking your criteria with SDQL a dog team facing an opposing team with less points (wins).
Season to date you would be 83-69 and +31.96 units which is awesome but checking the previous 5 seasons you would be 638-891 and -147.32 units.
To me it looks like a lucky streak for this angle to start the season and nothing more than just noise overall as far as this angle is concerned.
Dogs win about 42% of the time and they win at about 42% of the time with this angle blindly. The books will make a killing on you unless you are getting better than +140 odds on average.
Dogs can be profitable but this angle will burn your bankroll longterm.
It's to simplistic for the NHL tbh, short term success can just be noise. Checking your criteria with SDQL a dog team facing an opposing team with less points (wins).
Season to date you would be 83-69 and +31.96 units which is awesome but checking the previous 5 seasons you would be 638-891 and -147.32 units.
To me it looks like a lucky streak for this angle to start the season and nothing more than just noise overall as far as this angle is concerned.
Dogs win about 42% of the time and they win at about 42% of the time with this angle blindly. The books will make a killing on you unless you are getting better than +140 odds on average.
Dogs can be profitable but this angle will burn your bankroll longterm.
Thanks for posting this.
Yeah, this season it has been working well for me. Surprised the past 5 years though it hasn't been. Maybe a reason it's working well this season so far is because there is more parity in the NHL? I wonder if there are parameters we can tweek with this strategy to make it even more successful and last long term. You mentioned it might be better if you were getting around +140 per bet. Is there a way you can check what our Profit/Loss would be if we only took underdogs ahead of their opponents in the standings while being above +140?
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Quote Originally Posted by SuperSic58:
It's to simplistic for the NHL tbh, short term success can just be noise. Checking your criteria with SDQL a dog team facing an opposing team with less points (wins).
Season to date you would be 83-69 and +31.96 units which is awesome but checking the previous 5 seasons you would be 638-891 and -147.32 units.
To me it looks like a lucky streak for this angle to start the season and nothing more than just noise overall as far as this angle is concerned.
Dogs win about 42% of the time and they win at about 42% of the time with this angle blindly. The books will make a killing on you unless you are getting better than +140 odds on average.
Dogs can be profitable but this angle will burn your bankroll longterm.
Thanks for posting this.
Yeah, this season it has been working well for me. Surprised the past 5 years though it hasn't been. Maybe a reason it's working well this season so far is because there is more parity in the NHL? I wonder if there are parameters we can tweek with this strategy to make it even more successful and last long term. You mentioned it might be better if you were getting around +140 per bet. Is there a way you can check what our Profit/Loss would be if we only took underdogs ahead of their opponents in the standings while being above +140?
Yeah, this season it has been working well for me. Surprised the past 5 years though it hasn't been. Maybe a reason it's working well this season so far is because there is more parity in the NHL?
The books lines already have your angle covered is what I am saying. This season dogs in Oct won 46% and Nov 44.5% this month so far dogs are hitting at 39.6%. Dog since 2006 win 41.7% in Oct, 42% in Nov and 41.3% in Dec. Dogs have been overperforming this season.
9 team have winning records this season when priced as dogs the Vegas Knights and Nucks are 27-18 as dogs this season and +20.02 units if you on them as dogs. I think an expansion team and an overperforming Canadian team are the reason for dogs are outperforming the books at the moment.
Look for trends, injuries, travel schedules, recent performance, historical matchups etc you can find value on but with this angle alone will be difficult. Hockey isn't as streaky as MLB because the games added with the travel will cause the best teams to lose at least 20 games a season. The same things that make you slugish Monday morning at work does the same thing to NHL players.
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Quote Originally Posted by joemon999:
Thanks for posting this.
Yeah, this season it has been working well for me. Surprised the past 5 years though it hasn't been. Maybe a reason it's working well this season so far is because there is more parity in the NHL?
The books lines already have your angle covered is what I am saying. This season dogs in Oct won 46% and Nov 44.5% this month so far dogs are hitting at 39.6%. Dog since 2006 win 41.7% in Oct, 42% in Nov and 41.3% in Dec. Dogs have been overperforming this season.
9 team have winning records this season when priced as dogs the Vegas Knights and Nucks are 27-18 as dogs this season and +20.02 units if you on them as dogs. I think an expansion team and an overperforming Canadian team are the reason for dogs are outperforming the books at the moment.
Look for trends, injuries, travel schedules, recent performance, historical matchups etc you can find value on but with this angle alone will be difficult. Hockey isn't as streaky as MLB because the games added with the travel will cause the best teams to lose at least 20 games a season. The same things that make you slugish Monday morning at work does the same thing to NHL players.
Great analysis above. Completely agree...always need to consider the outliers when looking at overall percentages. Like this dog angle though. BOL this season
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Great analysis above. Completely agree...always need to consider the outliers when looking at overall percentages. Like this dog angle though. BOL this season
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