Last week I took advantage of the non Sunday games and a few Sunday Unders. Lucky to make a small profit as Sunday was a dog killa.
week2 and I have done more research but I just want to get a thread started
tpS(W)<8 and p:DL and HD and p:ats margin<5 and p:points<20 and op:ats margin>0 and opS(W)>4 and n:line<=9 and on:line>-8 and total<47 and week<12
Thankyou for this great query. (71-32) 69% is money.
My only push back and it is a reason I have pivoted to 2/3 year window for inspection is this query
is only 7-6 since 2020. I hope you are open to this inclusion in your thread...............................gl
@jowchoo
The years don’t matter unless it’s dormant over 5 years. It’s based upon perception of the early weeks and the linesmakers fooling us based upon perception. My regression starts in week 1 so I hope that last week doesn’t repeat itself. The books will get killed again if so. The only thing saving the books is the unders. So the parlay of favorites and under are less likely this week. That means more dogs more overs. Bet every game dog and over this week and see what the ROI is after.
Some of the teams in transition with rookies or new players need a week of film to assure their strategy and performance. They have that this week and should be more prepared for a better performance. They also have film on their opponents. I believe The younger team needs this more. I also believe this season to be full of parody and less likely to see the Chiefs Eagles Rams dominate. Cleveland, Carolina and I’m forgetting a few others will improve based upon their talent improvements
we will see if I’m correct. As it suts right now I’m very very wrong
A low goal and the dog are a good combo, also not too low of a total because that means the favorite can play defense or our dog can struggle to score points.
use team averages points to insure our team isn’t inept scoring then follow the offseason talent improvements to get the best mind set. Some teams I value are Cleveland so that’s outside of what the data will show betting against the Chiefs Eagles Chargers Broncos and Rans could most certainly be fruitful.
most of us know why I have targeted the Eagles and Chiefs but the Broncos and Chargers were excellent Favorites in 2024 and this season will challenge their consistency. It’s not like these teams will fall in to the trash but their won’t be the elevated consistency and elevated ATS success they achieved in 2024
In 2023 :as favorites
Dolphins 9-2 Ats
Cowboys 10-4 Ats
these teams as favorites in 2024:
Dolphins 4-5 Ats
Cowboys 1-2 …only 3 games after 14 games in 2023. 2 of those games were against the Giants. Their elevation in 2023 made them a dog because their schedule took them to a place that the lines maker recognized them as the weaker team.
That query is pretty amazing to me. When I have a query with THAT many parameters, it's usually worthless because the sample size is so insignificant.
Good luck with NO and TEN (I feel TEN owes me after Week 1).
@DogbiteWilliams
I try to( but not always the case) to use formulas using mathematical systems
such as mean mode meridian and range. Keep bottom winning teams with poor history out of my wagering. Sometimes I ignore history if the query is strong.
go thru a basic query and eliminate the low or high totaled games. Those high total games are because the opponent has a history of strong scoring
eliminate low total, our team struggles to score ir the opponent has a decent defense.
I start with a basic premise of what I’m thinking might work and start going thru the data and eliminating. Small data queries I support sometime but I prefer the ones with more results
take a look next week on how teams do in week 3 when their first 2 results are failures then look at 2024 performance wins and losses. See if previous points matters. The are all recency results and lines should increase because of mental perception.
I am with you on the Titans but am very cautious because I feel in the moment I’m not seeing enough offense production. It’s going to get better but when. If this week fails too the lines also increase. Their road lines become extremely valuable because they can play defense and road teams get extra points.
I don’t really care about matchup as much as failures against lines and looking for overlay games. Situations like scheduling and bye weeks after sucky games or opponent future dog divisional games ahead.
start with something basic and look for middle winning percent teams that are talented enough to bounce back.
keep a balanced approach to teams that are not deported in talent that can bounce back after adversi
Which teams barely failed to make the playoffs in 2024 and lost week 1 badly or were favored in week 1 and disappointed. Which team failed miserably ATS to close 2024 and lost also last week. Perception is low line increase and they came close to a winning 2924 season. The beginning of a new season the previous season close matters.
Find a query that has 2 or 3 qualifying plays so you can group together and try for 2-0 or 1-1
Make notes of potential plays and also your pkays record. Go back and look at their previous week score and see if you missed on anything.
eliminate line clues as I said high and low totals matter to the books valuations. Look ahead on the middle teams to future games and look ahead spots
@DogbiteWilliams
I try to( but not always the case) to use formulas using mathematical systems
such as mean mode meridian and range. Keep bottom winning teams with poor history out of my wagering. Sometimes I ignore history if the query is strong.
go thru a basic query and eliminate the low or high totaled games. Those high total games are because the opponent has a history of strong scoring
eliminate low total, our team struggles to score ir the opponent has a decent defense.
I start with a basic premise of what I’m thinking might work and start going thru the data and eliminating. Small data queries I support sometime but I prefer the ones with more results
take a look next week on how teams do in week 3 when their first 2 results are failures then look at 2024 performance wins and losses. See if previous points matters. The are all recency results and lines should increase because of mental perception.
I am with you on the Titans but am very cautious because I feel in the moment I’m not seeing enough offense production. It’s going to get better but when. If this week fails too the lines also increase. Their road lines become extremely valuable because they can play defense and road teams get extra points.
I don’t really care about matchup as much as failures against lines and looking for overlay games. Situations like scheduling and bye weeks after sucky games or opponent future dog divisional games ahead.
start with something basic and look for middle winning percent teams that are talented enough to bounce back.
keep a balanced approach to teams that are not deported in talent that can bounce back after adversi
Which teams barely failed to make the playoffs in 2024 and lost week 1 badly or were favored in week 1 and disappointed. Which team failed miserably ATS to close 2024 and lost also last week. Perception is low line increase and they came close to a winning 2924 season. The beginning of a new season the previous season close matters.
Find a query that has 2 or 3 qualifying plays so you can group together and try for 2-0 or 1-1
Make notes of potential plays and also your pkays record. Go back and look at their previous week score and see if you missed on anything.
eliminate line clues as I said high and low totals matter to the books valuations. Look ahead on the middle teams to future games and look ahead spots
@DogbiteWilliams
Not better but a lot of experience and I spent a lot of time in the offseason preparing and seeing if any consistency exists. It does. Lines and last season matter. Perception matter too but the dog has to show the ability to score.
In most cases, off the board teams are Tennessee Cleveland Carolina Raiders Saints. Off the top of my head I might have missed a few teans. go look at teams that are not producing points. In this day and age the rules are influencing higher scores so dogs that can produce are not valuable.
be patient of these crap teams until you see better and more consistent production.
Maybe one of these teams breaks out and after elevated production they become a favorite against one of my listed avoid teams. Play the dog in that case if the line is close to or above -7 we then have a possibly overlay situation.
Over rated team and this week is a perfect example are the Chiefs as a home dog. The book know this team is not the same. If they were as strong as in the recent past no way they are a home dog.
They’ll cover this week giving them false credibility going forward.
Chargers and Broncos also on my list to overlay points this season after a very nice season playing weaker schedules. When favorites especially at home playing decent teams fade these teams. LA was outstanding last year and Denver is now 9-0 as a home favorite (depending on the line of course)
I don’t think it will be a whole season of failing spreads against said teams but I don’t expect a whole nother season of elevation.
I am expecting inconsistent and line elevation after covers and big wins.
Lastly and something strongly consider. ALL home favorites are extremely successful right now. Bear that in mind and be patient until that shows regression. It’s going to snap but when.
dating back to week 11 last season and including playoffs look at this
HF and date>20241115 and total<51 and line>-14
There is a strong lack of parody on these teams right now and that lack if balance is crushing the dogs. This needs a few weeks line elevation and the new Qbs and young team need time to get it together. It on the horizon but not here in the moment.
AD and date>=20240909 and t:team != Giants and t:team != Lions and t:team != Fortyniners and t:team != Falcons and t:team != Dolphins and t:team != Colts and t:team != Browns and t:team != Broncos and t:team != Steelers and t:team != Patriots and t:team != Titans and t:team != Saints and o:team != Eagles and line < 10
HF and 10 >tppS(W)>1 and season>2005 and tpS(W)<12 and week<11 and (t:wins - o:wins)<2 and n:D and on:line<8 and opS(W)< 12 and streak < 3 and o:ou streak < 4 and opppS(playoffs) < 3 and line > -6 and rest< 13 and o:streak<3 and streak<2 and p:points<20
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