Week 8 Aardvark picks

SF @ HOU: Under 41.5
MIA @ ATL: Over 44.5
NYG @ PHI: Over 43.5
DAL @ DEN: Over 50.5

SF @ HOU: SF offense doesn't put up a ton of points, averaging 21 pts/game. With the exception of last week, the run game has been dreadful at 3.1 yds/carry. HOU defense has been good against the run, giving up 3.8 yds/carry. I see them holding SF to under 90 yds. Mac Jones has filled in well, but the secondary of HOU is good. They are holding opposing QB to a quarterback rating of 67. HOU does have some injuries on the secondary which could be a bit problematic. HOU offense is not good. Aside from scoring 26 and 44 on TEN/HOU (28th and 29th most points against them in the league), they have not cleared more than 19 points. They will be without Collins and Kirk (although he hasn't done anything this year), and the run game leaves a lot to be desired due to the poor offensive line play. SF defense is probably bottom 3rd of the league and they have injuries, but they are only giving up 21 pts/game. Overall I see the offenses struggling and look for a 20-17 type game.

MIA @ ATL: MIA offense looked bad last week, Tua has put up back to back 3 INT games, and the O line is not great. But, against average defenses, they show the ability to score 20+ points. MIA averages about 5 yds/carry (excluding the CAR game) and can create explosive plays, while ATL run defense is giving up 4.7 yds/carry (5.4 yds/carry last 3 games) and have allowed 100+ yds in every game except 1 (blowout to MIN week 2). I see MIA getting to 20 points on the day and Tua rewriting the sins of the last 2 weeks. ATL offense is the definition of feast or famine (either score 10 or less, or 20+), but MIA is a team to get the scoring going. They give up 5.2 yds/carry, have allowed every team to rush for 100+ yds, QB average rating is 110 with a 75% completion rate, and give up 29 pts/game. ATL at home averages 26 pts/game vs 11 pts/game on the road. I see them getting to 27-30 points, even without Penix. 
 

NYG @ PHI: Injuries on both sides of the defense should be an issue. NYG LB Gholston out, DB Adebo and Holland are out, with Burns Q. PHI LB Azeez and CB Jackson are both out as well. NYG offense has looked better with Dart and avg 26 pts/game with him in there. 2 weeks ago they put up 34 on the PHI defense, but I don't see that happening again. PHI gives up 24 pts/game, with KC week 2 being the lowest score from an opponent at 17 points. The PHI offense has been inconsistent, and really struggled with running the ball, 3.3 yds/carry, and Jurgens & Brown are out. I do think PHI will establish the run game early, and exploit some of the secondary issues NYG will have. NYG defense gives up 30 pts/game for away games. I see a 27-21/ 27-24 type game.

DAL @ DEN: Is there a hotter offense than DAL right now, they are on a heater. They can run the ball avg 4.9 yds/carry with all but one game more than 100+ yds rushing. Dak has been on a tear the last 4 games: 278 yds/game, 71% completion %, 13 TD/0 INT, 127 QB rating. The defensive competition has not been the best, but DEN has given up points to good offenses (IND 29, LAC 23, NYG 32). The issue that DAL offense may have is going against the really good front of DEN, which leads the league in sacks. DAL offensive line has not graded well in pass blocking. DEN offense has scored 20+ every game except 2 weeks ago against NYJ. They hav shown the ability to run the ball pretty well, averaging 4.9 yds/carry. Nix has been inconsistent at times, but there are some injuries to the secondary against and the DAL defense is terrible, giving up 29 pts/game. See both teams close to 30, and would not be surprised to see a 31-30 game.  

A