Week 7 NFL Ponderings

I'm a little late with this thread. Picked up a nice win with the Bengals on Thursday night. 

Rams -3 Jaguars - First game across the pond in five years for the Rams, who will be missing NFL leading receiver Puka Nacua. Jaguars are frequent travelers to the U.K. and that might give them an edge here. 

BEARS -4 Saints - Saints aren't winning but they're playing hard for HC Kellen Moore. However they have one of the NFL's worst offenses in the red zone. The Bears are on a short week following a 25-24 upset win at Washington. 

BROWNS -2' Dolphins - The Dolphins are being outgained by 100 yards a game and they have one of the worst defenses in the league. They're allowing 29 points a game, rank 31st in yards per play (6.3) and are allowing a league worst 168.5 rushing yards a game (5.6 YPR). This COULD be a breakout game for rookie QB Dillon Gabriel and rookie RB Quinshon Judkins before the home folks. Weather could be a factor in this one with rain and wind in the forecast. Strong lean to Cleveland here.

CHIEFS -11' Raiders - The Raiders have 11 turnovers and QB Geno Smith has ten of them. It doesn't look like TE Brock Bowers will be available in this one and Jakobi Meyers is questionable for Vegas. The Chiefs get WR Rashee Rice back from suspension and are playing their best ball of the season. I'm not interested in laying double digits in the NFL, but KC is a solid pick in eliminator pools, and I got 'em.

Eagles -2' VIKINGS - The Eagles are an enigma. They're 0-6 ITS, and have pretty much the same personnel on offense that they had a year ago, but they're only averaging 274.5 yards a game which is the third worst in the league. They're also averaging just 95.3 rushing yards a game (3.5 YPR) and have allowed 18 QB sacks. On the flip side, the Vikings are allowing an average of 132 rush yards a game (4.5) so maybe Saquon Barkley will get untracked here. QB Carson Wentz gets another start for Minny, but he needs better protection from an offensive line that's allowed 21 sacks!  Tough call in this one.

Panthers -1' JETS - The Panthers are 0-10 ATS in their last ten tries as favorites and they're 0-3 SU on the road so far this season. They have the NFL's worst pass rush (just five sacks), so maybe this is the game that QB Justin Fields and the Jets offense gets things going after an abysmal effort vs. Denver in London. They'll have to do it without top WR Garrett Wilson though, who is out with an injury. Call me crazy, but I like the Flyboys here. Hmmm, maybe "like" is too strong a word, but I do know I  want nothing to do with Carolina as chalk.

Patriots -7 TITANS - The Patriots haven't won three straight on the road since 1961, but that's the task that awaits them here. The Titans have failed to cover their last ten at home, but maybe they'll get a spark from interim HC Mike McCoy, who replaces Brian Callahan. As much as I'm impressed in what QB Drake Maye and the Pats have done thus far, there's no way I'm laying a full tuddy with a team playing their third straight road game. It's Tennessee or nobody.

Laying 11 with the Chiefs tomorrow is something I expect many to do without reservation.

I'm not so sure these are your older brother's Chiefs, though. The run game is anemic and Kelce is a shell of his old self. Chiefs played a flawless Sunday night game against the Lions and surely are feeling good about themselves. 

Similar story with the Bears. Huge road win. Got their revenge against the Commanders for ruining their season last year. It's the last thing we all saw on MNF. So you gotta ask yourself: how is this only a 4-point spread? 

GL 

Afternoon games 

BRONCOS -7' Giants - The G-men have been energized by a trio of rookies; QB Jaxson Dart, RB Cam Skattebo and OLB Abdul Carter. However, Carter may not play in this one (hammy) and Dart and Skattebo could find themselves overwhelmed by what may be the NFL's best defense. The Broncos certainly have, by far, the best pass rush, amassing a whopping 30 QB sacks so far. And on the flip side, Denver's Bo Nix has only been sacked six times. Nix has been inconsistent though, which makes me a little wary about laying this many points.

CHARGERS -2' Colts - Indy has been one of the NFL's biggest surprises as QB Daniel Jones is an NFL comeback player of the year candidate, and RB Jonathan Taylor is leading the NFL in rushing. Their defense did give up 400 yards to Arizona last week though. The Bolts have been riddled with injuries in the running back room and along the offensive line, and QB Justin Herbert has been feeling the heat. Tough call here.

Packers -7 CARDINALS - It doesn't look like QB Kyler Murray is going to be able to play, so Jacoby Brissett will go again for Arizona. I'm not seeing much of a drop off there, as Brissett nearly led a road upset against the Colts last week. This is another team that's been riddled with injuries to its' RB corps, but defensively the Cards aren't bad. They're not great by any means but they may play well enough to hang with a Packers team that's still trying to find it's groove. Green Bay had no answers in the second half of last week's win over the Joe Flacco led Bengals, and Micah Parsons has yet to make a major impact. Seems like too many points here. 

COWBOYS -1' Redskins - The 'Skins are off a Monday night loss at home to the Bears and will be missing their top three WRs, AND TE Zach Ertz is questionable. Dallas is getting some injured players back but they can't run the ball consistently and they have the league's worst defense and the worst pass defense. Pass.