week 6

Went 3-3 week 5.....still have not had a breakout week in the NFL.

The following is a calculated line angle........for example if team A has scored 26 points/game and allowed an average of 22, their scoring margin is +4 per game.  If their opponent, team B has scored 22 points/game and allowed 20/game, their average scoring margin is +2.  

The differential of team A and B is +2 points a game (4 minus 2),.....team B's opponent is given  2.5 points for home field to get a calculated line of team B +4.5.  

So obviously we are subtracting team B's average scoring differential from team A's.....NOT AVERAGING.

It has been found that when the Vegas line is less than the calculated line for away teams that those teams have performed better than the market's expectation, early in the season....and more so in the last 12+ years.  This angle's results improves if our away team is off a loss.

Here is the query text for said above.....

line < oA(margin) + 2.5-tA(margin) and p:L and A and season>2013 and week<9

The results?......212-142-12 against the spread, 59.9%.....this week it is ON Seahawks (pending on how the Jaguars do tonight), Browns, Cardinals, Bengals.

However if their opponent is off a bye (o:rest>7) those away teams are only 19-23-2 ATS, which eliminates the Bengals and the Browns whose opponents, Green Bay and Pittsburgh are off byes. 

I have not found that this is to be advantageous for home teams when the calculated line is less than Vegas', and of course the query text has to be modified to change the home field advantage that Vegas factors in.

If we further stipulate that the line is between -7 and +7 and our road team is off a home loss, the results move to 110-47-5 ATS, 70.1% (+4.0).....ON Seahawks, Cardinals

Ok, those two above mentioned teams are now NOT indicated.....I assumed incorrectly that the  database was updated as of game time on Monday night, which it turns out it hadn't, so my apologies.

The differential of Arizona is +1.4/game, and Indianapolis' is +3.....the line for the Cardinals for this to be applicable would have to be Cardinals +4.5 or less, and obviously now it is around +6.5.

Seattle's per game scoring differential is +8.1/game and right now before the MNF game Jacksonville's is +6/game....if that held (which it won't) the line for the JJ/SS game would have to be Jacksonville at pik or favored...the lookahead line is Jacksonville +1.5, which would not be an indicated play.

We'll look for other possibilities.

tS(W@A, N=2) < 2 and A and week = 6 and -7 < line < 7 and not division = o:division and rest > 5 and t:wins>1 and p:HL

18-2 ATS.....ON Cardinals, Chargers

Parameters

  a)  tS(W@A, N=2)<2....a team that won either 1 or zero of their last two away games

  b)  A and week=6....an away team in week 6

  c)  not division = o:division.....non-divisional matchup

  d)  t:wins>1.....our away team has won at least 1 game on the season

  e)  p:HL.....off a home loss

In thread #1, Seattle qualifies as a play if they are a pick or an underdog versus Jacksonville in their week 6 game.....  as of now, after the results of Jacksonville's MNF game, the  line is pik.

Correction....Seattle qualifies if they are a favorite from the query in thread #1....right now at pik they would NOT qualify.

  c)  Play ON an away dog whose present opponent's next game is on Thursday before week 9......this was a winner last week playing against the Eagles.....it is 3-3 this year.....78-33-4 (+2.8)....55-60 straight up (-2.2)......ON Browns......this has still been 4-1 ATS if their present opponent is off a bye as is the case with Pittsburgh.

If this game is a divisional game and the home favorite will be road favorites their next game this moves to 9-0 ATS (+13.4), 9-0 straight up (+7.8)

AD and on:day=Thursday and week < 9 and DIV and on:AF

Plays:

1)  Browns +5

2)  Chargers -4

3)  Cardinals +6'

  d)  An away dog who won their first game of the season after week 5 as an away dog has gone 21-18 ATS....however if they are playing a team that in their last two games have gone home loss, away loss, they've been 0-4 SUATS losing by an average of 11.6 points/game.....this fits the Titans, who in a sequence of amazing events snatched victory from the jaws of defeat, with A LOT of help from the Cardinals last week.....usually when in a football game there is extraordinary luck involved in a win, they are not so lucky their next game......VERSUS Titans.

Plays:

1)  Browns +5

2)  Cardinals +6'

3)  Chargers -4

4)  Vegas -4'

Good luck.

Thank you.

  e)  Play ON an underdog who will be favored their next game versus a team who will be an underdog.....736-432-22, 63%, (+3.8).....ON Seahawks, 49ers

Query text..........D and n:F and on:D and n:playoffs = 0 and playoffs = 0 and nn:playoffs = 0

This moves to a 64.4% covering rate if the dog has less or equal wins on the season as their present opponent.

Careful with the 49ers, as teams off an away dog win in this situation have only covered 53.7% of the time and they are only 6-9 ATS if their present opponent also is off an away dog win....

thx for these, good to see still spinning your magic...................................gl

@Indigo999

Good luck this week. 

    f)  Play on an away dog whose present opponent will be at least a 7 point underdog their next game....365-214-21, 63%, (+4.0).....ON Titans.....if that away dog  is off an away dog win this moves to 28-12 ATS.......ON Titans

Raiders lookahead line next week at KC is +10.

Sadly, I am going to have to DELETE my Raiders play.

Plays.....

1)  Browns +5

2)  Cardinals +6.5

3)  Chargers -4

  g)  Play ON an away dog who will be at least a 6 point favorite their next game.....426-324-24 (+2.6), 56.8%......ON Bears

Bears' lookahead line is -6.5 next week at home to Saints.

  h)  A favorite who won as a home dog on MNF their previous game....17-7 ATS (+4.0), 20-9 straight up (7.6)........ON Jaguars

I dont know what convinced you to back off from the Raiders but its one of my favorite situational plays

pp:AD and p:AD and AD is the set up and it can be a fade or take in the third game.  in this game its a fade. 

pp:AD and p:ADW and AD and p:points>21 and line<10