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Week 4: 4 team 13 point teaser teaser thread (3-0 +4 units)

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Posted: #76
tease SD, GB, NO, Den
 
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Posted: #77
Quote Originally Posted by longstah:

denver, balt, sd, and jac. gl that is my 13 teaser.


Looks decent depending on your numbers...
 
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Posted: #78
Is anybody feeling ATL? We have a west coast team in the 49ers traveling to ATL to play the Falcons at 1pm EST.
 
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Posted: #79
Quote Originally Posted by tpham89:

Is anybody feeling ATL? We have a west coast team in the 49ers traveling to ATL to play the Falcons at 1pm EST.


Have not seen much talk about this angle this year...  do you have any actual numbers on this trend?

I remember it working out really well ATS in certain seasons...

With that logic STL +14.5 would be the play also with SEA playing the early game...


 
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Posted: #80
Quote Originally Posted by shrynn:

Out of curiosity....why no totals? I won a 12-team 10-point teaser last weekend and I used 4 totals. Totals can be better than sides in some games, IMO. I posted that teaser here at Covers in advance, by the way. I don't normally post picks because I don't like the thought of people losing their money on something I happen to think is good. But something came over me last week and I lost control of my hands I guess and posted my teaser play.

Anyway, everybody in the whole NFL forum is jumping on the Saints. And they sure seem like a great play coming off a tough loss, playing at home against a rookie QB. Just wanna go on record saying that the Saints in this situation lose outright at almost a 50% clip. I wouldn't play on them this week at all...even on the ML. That said, I'm probably insane and the Saints will cover by 30 points. But I can't shake this hinky feeling about that game.

Anyway, I'd try to help you with what I think is good but it would have totals included which isn't what you want. Sorry and all the luck with it.



to answer your question there is actually no mathematical advantage with sides or totals, they hit about the same percentage 84-85%...

Im just way more familiar with capping spreads +13 points ATS... 

I appreciate your warning about NO, I agree with your caution...
 
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Posted: #81
Quote Originally Posted by BigEd87:

DL,

Are you using an online book?  Where are you getting -120 for a 13 point teaser?


I used to have a local that would give me -120 on a 4 team 12 point teaser...  but when I could get -110 on that, I really started thinking I could make it my bread and butter..

-120 for 4 team 13 pointers is a fair deal and the math historically shows that...
 
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Posted: #82
SO WHEN YOU GOING TO POST FINAL  TEASER?
 
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Posted: #83
Quote Originally Posted by RetireRichEarly:



Yep, -800 favorites lose about 50% of the time


Geez where do you guys come up with this crap?


would love to see the numbers on this one...
 
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Posted: #84
Okay so here is where I am at...

GB -1
NO -1

And then choosing from...

BUF +19
CLE +16
IND +5
CHI +16.5

Any more ideas or suggestions?

 
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Posted: #85
Quote Originally Posted by dl36:


I am not sure about your odds on moneyline parlays in terms of the math...
 


Straight up vs ATS parlay:

Bet $100 on Team A @ -110 wins $90.91
Original bet plus winnings and bet $190.91 on Team B @ -110 wins $173.55

Total winnings = $264.46

vs

Bet $100 on Team A and Team B @ 2.6:1 parlay odds = $260.00

 $264.46 vs $260.00. Same risk, lower payout. And if you can get reduced juice (ie less than -110) the difference is even more.

It's because ATS parlays pay FIXED odds. Moneyline parlays pay TRUE odds. Which means you get exactly the same amount betting separately or in a parlay.


 
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Posted: #86
3 Team 8.5 Point Teaser (ties win) +105
    Washington +14
    Baltimore +10
    Buffalo +15.5

That's what I'll be on tomorrow dl
 
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Posted: #87

Quote Originally Posted by dl36:

Okay so here is where I am at...

GB -1
NO -1

And then choosing from...

BUF +19
CLE +16
IND +5
CHI +16.5

Any more ideas or suggestions?

dl36,

Already have NO/GB locked in....two I'm fairly confident are Wash +18.5 and either Balt +15.5/Cincy +10.

 
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Posted: #88
CHI (vs GB) +16, ATL +6, CIN +10, NO pk
 
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Posted: #89
Quote Originally Posted by EpidemiX:

What do you think about this one?

Pitt-Bal OVER 21.5
Colts +4.5
Chargers +4.5
Redskins +19


IND seems to be a popular pick and I actually am thinking that this game will hit on both sides and be relatively close, but 20+ points on JAX is a big cushion... this is a no play for me...

SD at home with more then an FG cushion seems decent, I would prefer a more then a 7 point TD cushion in this situation...

WAS is a game that I have seen alot and interestingly no one n PHI who is the favored team to win at home...

Everyone is talking about Mcnabb returning and having an edge over his old teammates, but I dont know how much time Mcnabb spent against the first team defense...

I actually see the advantage being with the PHI coaching staff that knows what Mcnabb like and does not like to do on the field and the strategic advantage being with PHI, I like the WAS cushion tho...


 
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Posted: #90
dl

Every week the picks I've made off of your thread would have hit, but I haven't play them

I see your shout outs in the first post and I'm glad you're doing well so let me take a look at this thread and give you my thoughts.

I think it's time I start paying more attention

BOL this week regardless
 
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Posted: #91
dl - of your picks/leans

my card would be (without a doubt):

NO -1
BUF +19
CLE +16
CHI +16.5

If I were to make a card (w/ my numbers):

CLE +16
BUF +19
NO pk
WAS +18.5

As I said BOL this week whatever you decide.

It's a light week so I think I'll play a couple half unit teasers
 
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Posted: #92
hey there dl36 im a noob here been reading ur thread since week 2 jus want to say thank you for ur pointers during this time ..... back to topic i have a 4 team teaser i would like ur view on as well

GB-1
Wash+18.5
Balt+15.5
ind+6

gb - i just dont see gb losing at home to det

wash - divisional game its gonna be close with vick playing well and mcnabb getting a good feel how to use his offensive weapons for few weeks now and vick becoming his old self i see a tight game either way

balt- against pitt at pitt i dont see how pit will lose but balt has its weapons to throw around the pomman at saftey i see picks i still like the cushion of 2tds for balt to lose

indy- payton manning enuff said
 
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Posted: #93

i know you dont do totals and i know i already said the same thing last week cuz the line is pretty much the same but pitt/balt over 21 seems like it has to be taken.  I mean, c'mon, how often do you get lines like that?

packers -2.5 is my other favorite, along with saints -1, redskins +18.5, ravens +14.5 and broncos +20

 
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Posted: #94

SAINTS$$$SAN DIEGO$$$ JETS$$$$$HOUSTON$$$$

god bless

 
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Posted: #95
Quote Originally Posted by DiscoD69:

dl

Every week the picks I've made off of your thread would have hit, but I haven't play them

I see your shout outs in the first post and I'm glad you're doing well so let me take a look at this thread and give you my thoughts.

I think it's time I start paying more attention

BOL this week regardless


You were right every week so far...
 
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Posted: #96
Update

here is where I am at...

GB -1
NO -1

And picking from

CLE+16
ATL +6
BUF +19
WAS +19
SD +4

Any more ideas or suggestions?

Any losers in the this group?
 
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Posted: #97
I just saw this thread after placing Clev +16 / SD +4 & the 2 big favs.
 
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Posted: #98
Quote Originally Posted by wiggins:

tease SD, GB, NO, Den


same teams i said on page 2 of this thread, haha
 
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Posted: #99
GL dl36

im gonna tail you! 

and i wont hate you after! 
 
 
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Posted: #100
Quote Originally Posted by dl36:

Update

here is where I am at...

GB -1
NO -1

And picking from

CLE+16
ATL +6
BUF +19
WAS +19
SD +4

Any more ideas or suggestions?

Any losers in the this group?


that ATl +6 isn't a good one...if the 49ers win, i think they do it by at least a TD.. SD i see only losing by a FG.
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