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Week 12

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begginerboy

All-Star

Joined: Jul, 2013

Posts: 14854

Posted: Nov. 21, 2014 - 1:15 PM ET #51

AMD, what do you think of LC's angle on the Falcons game? Is this a legit concern?

"Terrible spot for the Falcons here. Their last home game was on October 12, over 40 calendar days back. ATL has a ton of young players on their team, how many of them do you think will be stoked to be back home in order to spend time with their friends, family, kids? A lot of players on this team will be unfocused coming into this game."

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amd

Legend

Joined: Jan, 2008

Posts: 33072

Posted: Nov. 21, 2014 - 1:24 PM ET #52

Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:

AMD, what do you think of LC's angle on the Falcons game? Is this a legit concern?

"Terrible spot for the Falcons here. Their last home game was on October 12, over 40 calendar days back. ATL has a ton of young players on their team, how many of them do you think will be stoked to be back home in order to spend time with their friends, family, kids? A lot of players on this team will be unfocused coming into this game."

LC is pretty good and I'm happy to see he's on Seattle but not even God could get me off Atlanta this week. I love Atlanta and am playing them heavy.

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begginerboy

All-Star

Joined: Jul, 2013

Posts: 14854

Posted: Nov. 21, 2014 - 1:38 PM ET #53

Quote Originally Posted by amd:

LC is pretty good and I'm happy to see he's on Seattle but not even God could get me off Atlanta this week. I love Atlanta and am playing them heavy.

Point taken.

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Herbie69

Prospect

Joined: Aug, 2013

Posts: 257

Posted: Nov. 21, 2014 - 1:42 PM ET #54

AMD. What is your take on Philly this week?

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smallbet07

All-Star

Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 12207

Posted: Nov. 21, 2014 - 1:52 PM ET #55

BOL bud

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Beningo88

Hall of Fame

Joined: Feb, 2006

Posts: 23065

Posted: Nov. 21, 2014 - 2:17 PM ET #56

Quote Originally Posted by Herbie69:

AMD. What is your take on Philly this week?

Suprised no one else is on Philly? Luv philly. Just my 2 cents

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amd

Legend

Joined: Jan, 2008

Posts: 33072

Posted: Nov. 21, 2014 - 2:42 PM ET #57

Quote Originally Posted by Herbie69:

AMD. What is your take on Philly this week?

Philly is a public team and coming off a big loss, oddsmakers have over inflated the spread knowing that Joe Pub will make the Eagles an automatic play this week. While I believe they rebound against an undermanned Tennessee team, Im hesitant to play the Eagles as dd chalk. The Titans are one of 2 or 3 teams in the league that I'm not very familiar with so I'd have to research the matchup before making any type of play. It's definitely not one of my favorite games on the board....too many unknowns for me. Weather will obviously be a factor and make these offenses more one dimensional than we are accustomed to seeing. Do you really want to lay -11 with Sanchez and, possibly, a one dimensional offense that has holes in their defense?

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Herbie69

Prospect

Joined: Aug, 2013

Posts: 257

Posted: Nov. 21, 2014 - 2:50 PM ET #58

Thanks for your insight. GL this week!

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FadeOnly

MVP

Joined: Dec, 2008

Posts: 16675

Posted: Nov. 21, 2014 - 3:11 PM ET #59

Quote Originally Posted by amd:

This game is a big play for me. It's a no brainer. The Browns have the third worst rushing defense in the league and I believe they get a heavy dose if Atlanta ground game to open up a very capable passing attack by Atlanta. I don't care what Atlanta record is because, as it stands, they're in 1st place in their division and they've had one of the most difficult schedules in the league. They haven't been home since Oct 12 but they now play the next 3 of 4 weeks at home to secure their division and a playoff spot. The Browns are paper Tigers. The absence of Center, Mack, has changed the whole offense for the worse. They can't run and it's put even more pressure on Hoyer to move the chains in which he hasnt. Hoyer is only completing 53% of his passes with a measly 86.5 efficiency rating and what's even worse is that the Browns offense is only converting 31% of 3rd down conversions while giving up 20 sacks on the year. Those numbers are embarrassing. As bad as the Falcons defensive front has been this season, they'll be fine this weekend, I promise. Atlanta wins big.

First game that jumped out at me as well. I'm not worried about Josh Gordon at all, as Desmond Trufant is giving up only 1.1 Yards Per Coverage Snap (which is sort of a made-up stat but it's still impressive considering the best CBs in the NFL finish the year around 0.80 YPCS). No worries about Matt Ryan either; he's top 10 in terms of completion percentage, yards, and YPG - with a rating in the mid 90's. My fear in this game is that it turns into a shootout. In that case, let's hope Matt Ryan makes less mistakes than Brian Hoyer. All 4 of the Falcons wins this season have come within their division, time to change that; big momentum since their bye week; a nice win will put massive pressure on New Orleans on Monday night.

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Ravensfan2k3

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2012

Posts: 2674

Posted: Nov. 21, 2014 - 4:04 PM ET #60

Quote Originally Posted by iEatBooks:

nice picks bro, i like it all besides seahakws..

i dont see stanton throwing touchdowns against the seahawks + the 12th man

If you dont see Stanton throwing for touchdowns, why dont you like Seahawks then?

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mrdish33

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Joined: Aug, 2006

Posts: 3646

Posted: Nov. 21, 2014 - 4:09 PM ET #61

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Ravensfan2k3

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2012

Posts: 2674

Posted: Nov. 21, 2014 - 4:43 PM ET #62

I like just about all of them. Does no Courtland Finnegan for Miami worry you at all?

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Ravensfan2k3

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2012

Posts: 2674

Posted: Nov. 21, 2014 - 4:47 PM ET #63

Also Emmanuel Sanders is now probable

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dontbookme

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Joined: May, 2008

Posts: 4646

Posted: Nov. 21, 2014 - 6:26 PM ET #64

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degengambler34

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2011

Posts: 3661

Posted: Nov. 21, 2014 - 6:49 PM ET #65

I love your card this week amd. those are pretty much all the plays i was looking at also. im gonna go ahead and parlay the under in the miami game with miami, if it goes the way i expect it too it's a correlated pick, miami doesn't stand much chance of covering in a game in the high 20s imo, but i think they win out right 24-21.

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slomotion

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2008

Posts: 2852

Posted: Nov. 22, 2014 - 12:08 AM ET #66

Excellent thread my friend

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hug0boss

Banned

Joined: Oct, 2014

Posts: 317

Posted: Nov. 22, 2014 - 3:36 AM ET #67

I feel like over 47 is the best play in the falcons game, neither defense is good but the Falcons is truly terrible. I think the Browns can get some pass rush and maybe a pick or two from the pressure generated which could be a telling factor in who wins. Overall though I feel like both teams should absolutely light it up on offense as neither defense is very good at all and their is plenty of offensive firepower, in a dome.

Why do you like the falcs so much?

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kroep76

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2009

Posts: 314

Posted: Nov. 22, 2014 - 8:52 AM ET #68

Quote Originally Posted by gcwrestling08:

You post raiders +7.5 as a play when this thread was started at 1 am EST today (Friday)? Pretty sketchy...

it was before the game started thats for sure I tailed him, WINNER WINNER Chicken dinner

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glyde69

Captain

Joined: Sep, 2005

Posts: 7401

Posted: Nov. 22, 2014 - 4:52 PM ET #69

Great stuff, AMD.

I'm on Seattle and Atlanta as well and Miami and TB were strong leans that I ultimately passed on.

GL luck man, I think you can sweep this card.

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TRAIN69

Legend

Joined: Oct, 2002

Posts: 54258

Posted: Nov. 22, 2014 - 5:18 PM ET #70

Pick me out a fantasy qb bro....i cant decide this week....

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hug0boss

Banned

Joined: Oct, 2014

Posts: 317

Posted: Nov. 22, 2014 - 7:46 PM ET #71

Quote Originally Posted by hug0boss:

I feel like over 47 is the best play in the falcons game, neither defense is good but the Falcons is truly terrible. I think the Browns can get some pass rush and maybe a pick or two from the pressure generated which could be a telling factor in who wins. Overall though I feel like both teams should absolutely light it up on offense as neither defense is very good at all and their is plenty of offensive firepower, in a dome.

Why do you like the falcs so much?

Also curious as to why you like the Dolphins? Find it a scary proposition going against Manning off a loss, at altitude.

Doing a teaser this week?

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Shinigami23

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2014

Posts: 41

Posted: Nov. 22, 2014 - 7:51 PM ET #72

how can u be so convinced Atl will shut down the Browns rushing attack?

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amd

Legend

Joined: Jan, 2008

Posts: 33072

Posted: Nov. 22, 2014 - 8:48 PM ET #73

Quote Originally Posted by Shinigami23:

how can u be so convinced Atl will shut down the Browns rushing attack?

Apparently, you don't realize how bad Clevelands rushing attack has been since they lost Mack. Cleveland is 29th in yds per rush. Cleveland is 29th in total rushing defense and, offensively, 29th in yds/rush. You can say all you want about Atlanta defense but Clevelands line is shittty on both sides of the ball.