I've been on this site for a really long time. I've been gambling for many years. It wasn't until the last 3 years that I started to make some money. I'm a numbers guy. I cap games. I project outcomes. I am not a personel guy. I don't know a lot about players or injuries or depths in roster. I don't check the weather. I've kind of learned about players and wwater affecting games over the years... my main thing is numbers. One thing I do see everywhere that I don't really understand which I think could help me as well as many people investing in sports is trends. How to read them and what they mean. I see for instance. Greenbays trends have been all plus money for week 17 since 1992 and Detroit trends all are negative money since 1992. How do I know if it's fade material or if I bet on the trend keeping pace. I'm sure this can help many people as well as myself. What is your personal experience beting on trends and do you fade it or stick with it and why. Any advice would be greatly appreciated. I'm going to Cap all NFL games tonight with projected score and outcomes and hopefully by morning I have more info on these trends and How to incorporate them into my system.
I've been on this site for a really long time. I've been gambling for many years. It wasn't until the last 3 years that I started to make some money. I'm a numbers guy. I cap games. I project outcomes. I am not a personel guy. I don't know a lot about players or injuries or depths in roster. I don't check the weather. I've kind of learned about players and wwater affecting games over the years... my main thing is numbers. One thing I do see everywhere that I don't really understand which I think could help me as well as many people investing in sports is trends. How to read them and what they mean. I see for instance. Greenbays trends have been all plus money for week 17 since 1992 and Detroit trends all are negative money since 1992. How do I know if it's fade material or if I bet on the trend keeping pace. I'm sure this can help many people as well as myself. What is your personal experience beting on trends and do you fade it or stick with it and why. Any advice would be greatly appreciated. I'm going to Cap all NFL games tonight with projected score and outcomes and hopefully by morning I have more info on these trends and How to incorporate them into my system.
I'm not a big trends guy. You need to look at trends rationally.
Stuff like "Packers haven't lost to the Lions at home since 1992" mean almost nothing to me, since the teams from 1992 and today are radically different and have no effect on each other.
Recent homefield advantage trends are pretty handy. Homefield advantage is real thing because it greatly affects the psychology and mood of a team. Teams that thrive off energy generally have huge homefield advantages -- see Seahawks.
Betting football with just numbers is pretty sketchy, since every situation is different. NO TWO SITUATIONS ARE THE SAME.
Sure, Tom Brady may have a miraculous record against the spread coming off a loss. But was the last lost a "feel-good" loss (Packers) or was it a "you've offended me" loss (Chiefs)?
Anyways, I don't recommend just using trends. You have to get a real feel for the players and the situation of the game. For the record, this is only my second year betting, but I'm up roughly 55 units from the two years combined.
I'm not a big trends guy. You need to look at trends rationally.
Stuff like "Packers haven't lost to the Lions at home since 1992" mean almost nothing to me, since the teams from 1992 and today are radically different and have no effect on each other.
Recent homefield advantage trends are pretty handy. Homefield advantage is real thing because it greatly affects the psychology and mood of a team. Teams that thrive off energy generally have huge homefield advantages -- see Seahawks.
Betting football with just numbers is pretty sketchy, since every situation is different. NO TWO SITUATIONS ARE THE SAME.
Sure, Tom Brady may have a miraculous record against the spread coming off a loss. But was the last lost a "feel-good" loss (Packers) or was it a "you've offended me" loss (Chiefs)?
Anyways, I don't recommend just using trends. You have to get a real feel for the players and the situation of the game. For the record, this is only my second year betting, but I'm up roughly 55 units from the two years combined.
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