SB losers often don't only not make the l
Postseason the next year, but have losing records as well. See S.F as an example. Anyone think K.C might be headed for a downer or will they break that streak?
SB losers often don't only not make the l
Postseason the next year, but have losing records as well. See S.F as an example. Anyone think K.C might be headed for a downer or will they break that streak?
SB losers often don't only not make the l
Postseason the next year, but have losing records as well. See S.F as an example. Anyone think K.C might be headed for a downer or will they break that streak?
2019 - S.F 6 - 10 no playoffs
2018 - Rams 9 - 7 no playoffs
2017 - Pats 12 - 4 won S.B
2016 - 10 - 6 lost Division round
2015 - Carolina 7 - 9 no playoffs
2014 - Seattle 10 - 6 lost Divional round
2013 - S.F 8 - 8 no playoffs
2019 - S.F 6 - 10 no playoffs
2018 - Rams 9 - 7 no playoffs
2017 - Pats 12 - 4 won S.B
2016 - 10 - 6 lost Division round
2015 - Carolina 7 - 9 no playoffs
2014 - Seattle 10 - 6 lost Divional round
2013 - S.F 8 - 8 no playoffs
Hey GrayMatter,
Besides their own AFC West opponents 2x (Broncos, Chargers, Raiders) the Chiefs will play the NFC East (should be 4 Ws), AFC North (2-2 ?), BILLS @ home, and TENN away. Guesstimate...4-2 vs AFC West + 4-0 + 2-2 + 1-1 = 11-5 season in 2021?
Definitely make the playoffs with that record...your stats suggest it's the NFC Supe loser that doesn't make the playoffs, but the stats are the stats and we've all heard about the curse. It will be interesting for sure to follow along.
Hey GrayMatter,
Besides their own AFC West opponents 2x (Broncos, Chargers, Raiders) the Chiefs will play the NFC East (should be 4 Ws), AFC North (2-2 ?), BILLS @ home, and TENN away. Guesstimate...4-2 vs AFC West + 4-0 + 2-2 + 1-1 = 11-5 season in 2021?
Definitely make the playoffs with that record...your stats suggest it's the NFC Supe loser that doesn't make the playoffs, but the stats are the stats and we've all heard about the curse. It will be interesting for sure to follow along.
They discussed this very topic on the Tuesday episode of Daily Wager. Over the last 20 years, 50% of the SB losers failed to make the playoffs the following year. Over the last 27 years only one team - 2008 NE - lost the SB and came back to win it the following year.
The Daily Wager analysts made some good observations: unlike many of SB teams that lose one or more, KC should retain all of their coordinators. Their blue chip OFF stars (Mahomes, Hill and Kelce) are also under contract.
Maybe KC will buck the trend, but I will not place a KC SB future wager.
They discussed this very topic on the Tuesday episode of Daily Wager. Over the last 20 years, 50% of the SB losers failed to make the playoffs the following year. Over the last 27 years only one team - 2008 NE - lost the SB and came back to win it the following year.
The Daily Wager analysts made some good observations: unlike many of SB teams that lose one or more, KC should retain all of their coordinators. Their blue chip OFF stars (Mahomes, Hill and Kelce) are also under contract.
Maybe KC will buck the trend, but I will not place a KC SB future wager.
2008 PATS DID NOT WIN SB THE NEXT YEAR. 2009 Is the year Brady was injured and Pats went 11-5 but missed playoffs. 2018 SB losing Pats to Eagles then beat Rams next year. did though.
Pats did make the playoffs after losing to Giants in 2012 but lost to Ravens in AFC Title game at home.
But then again Pats were a rare team beating most meterics that other teams don't.
KC is almost certainly headed for a regression next year, they still might make the playoffs, but wouldn't surprise me if they did not.
2008 PATS DID NOT WIN SB THE NEXT YEAR. 2009 Is the year Brady was injured and Pats went 11-5 but missed playoffs. 2018 SB losing Pats to Eagles then beat Rams next year. did though.
Pats did make the playoffs after losing to Giants in 2012 but lost to Ravens in AFC Title game at home.
But then again Pats were a rare team beating most meterics that other teams don't.
KC is almost certainly headed for a regression next year, they still might make the playoffs, but wouldn't surprise me if they did not.
Its only been a couple of years since the Patriots broke the Superbowl loser curse although the last team before them was the 1972 perfect season Dolphins... I wouldn't be surprised to see the Chiefs make a strong run next season but we shall see..
Its only been a couple of years since the Patriots broke the Superbowl loser curse although the last team before them was the 1972 perfect season Dolphins... I wouldn't be surprised to see the Chiefs make a strong run next season but we shall see..
@GrayMatter2019
None of your Super Bowl loser cursed teams had a QB remotely similar to Patrick Mahomes. You could put Mahomes on the Jets and the Jets would make the playoffs.
The QBs of those "cursed" teams were: Jimmy Garoppolo, Jared Goff, Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, Russel Wilson and Colin Kaepernick. All of them except for Wilson (who to my eyes is very good, but the most overrated player in the league,) are mediocre at best. The one super elite QB in the teams mentioned above, shattered the curse.
@GrayMatter2019
None of your Super Bowl loser cursed teams had a QB remotely similar to Patrick Mahomes. You could put Mahomes on the Jets and the Jets would make the playoffs.
The QBs of those "cursed" teams were: Jimmy Garoppolo, Jared Goff, Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, Russel Wilson and Colin Kaepernick. All of them except for Wilson (who to my eyes is very good, but the most overrated player in the league,) are mediocre at best. The one super elite QB in the teams mentioned above, shattered the curse.
although I agree with you as far as Mahomes being compared to those QBs and him being the better overall talent I disagree with you saying he could basically go to any team and make the playoffs..do you understand who he is throwing to on KC?
top 5 receiver cheetah
top 5 TE kelce
In my opinion Mahomes would not be the same on any other team. I would also place a wager on KC not making it to the Super Bowl..
Teams may not have the same talent on defense but the KC offense has been exposed as far as the scoring goes.. they will have success scoring but not at a high clip I wouldn’t be shocked to see the offense regress..
although I agree with you as far as Mahomes being compared to those QBs and him being the better overall talent I disagree with you saying he could basically go to any team and make the playoffs..do you understand who he is throwing to on KC?
top 5 receiver cheetah
top 5 TE kelce
In my opinion Mahomes would not be the same on any other team. I would also place a wager on KC not making it to the Super Bowl..
Teams may not have the same talent on defense but the KC offense has been exposed as far as the scoring goes.. they will have success scoring but not at a high clip I wouldn’t be shocked to see the offense regress..
the sb loser curse is a real trend. look at all the injuries that happened to the 49ers this year alone. I will be betting under their win total, probably will be 12.
the sb loser curse is a real trend. look at all the injuries that happened to the 49ers this year alone. I will be betting under their win total, probably will be 12.
Kelce - with Alex Smith
2015 72/875/5 on 103 targets
2016 85/1125/4 on 117 targets
2017 83/1038/8 on 122 targets
_________
Kelce - with Mahomes
2018 103/1336/10 on 150 targets
2019 97/1229/5 on 136 targets
2020 105/1416/11 on 140 targets
Hill with Alex Smith
2016 61/593/6 on 83 targets
2017 75/1183/7 on 105 targets
___________
Hill with Mahomes
2018 87/1479/12 on 137 targets
2019 58/860/7 on 89 *injured
2020 87/1276/15 on 135 targets
Kelce - with Alex Smith
2015 72/875/5 on 103 targets
2016 85/1125/4 on 117 targets
2017 83/1038/8 on 122 targets
_________
Kelce - with Mahomes
2018 103/1336/10 on 150 targets
2019 97/1229/5 on 136 targets
2020 105/1416/11 on 140 targets
Hill with Alex Smith
2016 61/593/6 on 83 targets
2017 75/1183/7 on 105 targets
___________
Hill with Mahomes
2018 87/1479/12 on 137 targets
2019 58/860/7 on 89 *injured
2020 87/1276/15 on 135 targets
Interesting comparison above on your two examples with Hill and Kelce.... would Mahomes be the SAME player on any other team? NO, not the exact same but not so much for the two players you listed. I would argue that Mahomes makes the bigger difference in those players, not the other way around. Check out the splits with Alex vs. Mahomes. Andy Reid was there with both of those two toys with Alex and Mahomes to play with.... the numbers cannot be argued. Drastic increase in TARGETS, leads to more CATCHES and more TD's.
Put Mahomes in Sean Payton's offense, McVay, Lafleur, Dabol, etc. and you're still looking at top 2-3 QB numbers and SB contender. JETS? Playoffs?
With Adam Gase as the HC they might squeak out a WC playoff birth....other coaches I'd say he gets you to the playoffs for sure. Remember Mahomes in college was not Superman. He was an awesome talent who could do tremendous things on the football field....he played in the Big 12 for Kliff Kingsbury and the Texas Tech Red Raiders though....defense was "optional". Andy Reid was a perfect fit for Mahomes and the weapons KC already had were only enhanced by Patrick...
Interesting comparison above on your two examples with Hill and Kelce.... would Mahomes be the SAME player on any other team? NO, not the exact same but not so much for the two players you listed. I would argue that Mahomes makes the bigger difference in those players, not the other way around. Check out the splits with Alex vs. Mahomes. Andy Reid was there with both of those two toys with Alex and Mahomes to play with.... the numbers cannot be argued. Drastic increase in TARGETS, leads to more CATCHES and more TD's.
Put Mahomes in Sean Payton's offense, McVay, Lafleur, Dabol, etc. and you're still looking at top 2-3 QB numbers and SB contender. JETS? Playoffs?
With Adam Gase as the HC they might squeak out a WC playoff birth....other coaches I'd say he gets you to the playoffs for sure. Remember Mahomes in college was not Superman. He was an awesome talent who could do tremendous things on the football field....he played in the Big 12 for Kliff Kingsbury and the Texas Tech Red Raiders though....defense was "optional". Andy Reid was a perfect fit for Mahomes and the weapons KC already had were only enhanced by Patrick...
@ChOmP
Chomp, would you mind explaining how their offense was "exposed"? Yes they got railroaded by the Buccs defense while playing with 2nd and 3rd string offensive linemen up against the best pass rush and top 5 overall defense in the NFL. This KC offense has been doing their things for going on 4 years now, it's no one hit wonder a la Matt Ryan with Shanny or Goff's first year with McVay.
If you are familiar with any regression methods or PFT's dvoa measures you will find that offensive regression is likely to be very small compared to defensive and special teams. Think about it, the top offensive teams are always in the top 3-5 in offensive stats/efficiency year in and year out.
Packers, Chiefs, Saints, Patriots (with Brady), etc....the Bills will be part of this group moving forward. CONSISTENT Coach/QB/system year in and year out limits any major offensive regression.
2nd, 3rd and 1st - those are KC's offensive dvoa numbers since Mahomes and Reid got together.... KC is gonna have their issues on defense again next year, very likely worse than this year and last. They could very well revert back to 2018 where they were 27th overall and dead last vs. the run....
But they won't be playing with the JV squad offensive line so I wouldn't count on them dropping out of the top 5 anytime soon (barring Mahomes injury that is)
@ChOmP
Chomp, would you mind explaining how their offense was "exposed"? Yes they got railroaded by the Buccs defense while playing with 2nd and 3rd string offensive linemen up against the best pass rush and top 5 overall defense in the NFL. This KC offense has been doing their things for going on 4 years now, it's no one hit wonder a la Matt Ryan with Shanny or Goff's first year with McVay.
If you are familiar with any regression methods or PFT's dvoa measures you will find that offensive regression is likely to be very small compared to defensive and special teams. Think about it, the top offensive teams are always in the top 3-5 in offensive stats/efficiency year in and year out.
Packers, Chiefs, Saints, Patriots (with Brady), etc....the Bills will be part of this group moving forward. CONSISTENT Coach/QB/system year in and year out limits any major offensive regression.
2nd, 3rd and 1st - those are KC's offensive dvoa numbers since Mahomes and Reid got together.... KC is gonna have their issues on defense again next year, very likely worse than this year and last. They could very well revert back to 2018 where they were 27th overall and dead last vs. the run....
But they won't be playing with the JV squad offensive line so I wouldn't count on them dropping out of the top 5 anytime soon (barring Mahomes injury that is)
KC had a dark cloud hanging over the team due to Reid's brilliant son and badly injured O-line.
The trend just doesn't apply here. Only way they aren't contenders is if Mahomes is out.
KC had a dark cloud hanging over the team due to Reid's brilliant son and badly injured O-line.
The trend just doesn't apply here. Only way they aren't contenders is if Mahomes is out.
Hard to keep a clean, healthy roster 3 years in a row. I am not predicting injuries but KC has to avoid key positions getting beat up.
Hard to keep a clean, healthy roster 3 years in a row. I am not predicting injuries but KC has to avoid key positions getting beat up.
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