The Monday Night Catastrophe!

Well. My record has improved.

So before I begin this Monday Night Catastrophe, I'm going to recap since I began posting with last Monday Night's picks.

I've been in this game for a long time, but what made we want to post on this covers forum is that I have been an observer for many many years. Until now...

I have always enjoyed the insights of many handicappers on this forum. I think it is a wonderful thing to disagree, maybe even argue over picks because WE WANT to get this right. For ALL our benefit!

So let's begin.

Started 0-2 on the Bills ML (L) v. FALCONS  and Commanders ML (L) v. BEARS debacles. 

I'm looking to redeem myself this Monday Night with two plays.

Despite the rough start....

I have now recovered to...

A modest 5-5 Record on the season for posted plays. Some I didn't post, but I won't include those because they weren't posted.

PATRIOTS ML (W) 

RAMS ML. (W)

BRONCOS ML. (W)   (They really shouldn't have won that game. The Giants really blew it hard in more ways than one.)

KC. ML (W) 

BEARS. ML (W) 

CHARGERS ML (L) 

DOLPHINS ML (L) 

JETS (L)  

Before I begin my handicapping of the Monday Night Catastrophe ...

I just want to say that if the Dolphins and Jets win next week ... I am fuming over the state and condition of those teams because you never know when the bomb drops with these guys. Sooner or later, they are going to win a game or two that they shouldn't.

With that out of the way...

Let's begin....

BUCS ML!!!

TEXANS ML!!!

Explanation to follow. Going to post my writeup.

I know some of you will be like 

But let us not forget....

This is the NFL. The league of complete parody where sometimes things just don't make sense at all.

What shouldn't happen seems to happen too often!

I will post my writeup for my selections shortly.

Here comes the Catastrophe.

.....it is going to be an ugly Monday Night. These games are not so easily..."Yea Detroit is great and Seattle has Darnold and blah blag blah great defenses and Detroit is a beast at home and Seattle needs a win at home because they haven't had success at home."

No.

This is the NFL.

It makes no sense.

Writeup and reasoning to follow... this is already a long post. I don't want to put you to sleep.

I need time to explain my reasoning.

BUCS ML.

TEXANS ML.

The Monday Night Dogs come barking! Howling!

To start. The BUCS.

Where do we begin? We begin with who should win MVP this season... Baker Mayfield.

This man is a juggernaut.

Books and odds makers have him predicted to throw for anywhere from 33 to 34 tries and the Lions secondary has been lit up by the pass the last several weeks.

Mahomes did it. Lamar did it before his absence. Even Flacco when with Cleveland managed 185 yards or so....

Tampa is looking way finer than any of those teams.

Baker is shredding defenses left, right and center and it looks like he is getting major pieces back, some real offensive weapons back this Monday Night. Mike Evans, a 6 foot 5 inch monster is back and apparently so is Emeka Egbuka, rookie of the year standout. With them in the lineup, the Bucs are a dream dog for any handicappers looking to make bank.

The Lions secondary, despite a pretty solid run defense, is really beat up.

Safety Brian Branch's suspension leaves them short. Starting cornerback D.J. Reed and Terrion Arnold out. And it looks like Kerby Joseph has knee problems and may not play. Even if he does? How effective will he be?

This is a Lions’ secondary that is in catastrophic conditions for a game of this magnitude. If Joseph is out, can’t go or gets hurt trying to play? This will cost Detroit dearly. They may even hold him out of the lineup because he can't run with a bum knee or risk losing him long term.

This would leave the Lions down both starting safeties and both starting cornerbacks.

The Lions can't win games apparently unless they put up over 30 points in a game and quite frankly, I don't see them doing that against a very difficult Bucs D. This game has been circled by the Bucs. They know Detroit is a test and they want Supremacy in the NFC.

Tampa Bay could very well come out of the NFC. These guys are contenders. This is a 5-1 football team playing as a dog on the road on Monday night. I don't think they are getting enough respect.

Now you could make a play for the spread.

But I am taking them to WIN this football game.

Detroit with their badly beaten up secondary, the passing game of Baker expected to come fast and furious as well as his two threat ability to run on a pinch...

....the Lions will have to be almost flawless when Jared Goff gets the ball to win this game and I just don't see it happening.

Yea Goff is a great QB. I'm not taking anything away from him. He is exceptional.

But if this becomes a shootout? The Lions just may not be in sufficient condition to hold up.

Tampa can run, ball control, clock kill, big play and has one of the most elite offensive lines in the game that will surely open up holes for Baker on the ground and give him time to air the ball out all night.

Cornerbacks D.J. Reed (hamstring), Terrion Arnold (shoulder) and Avonte Maddox (hamstring) are all out, as are safeties Brian Branch (suspended) and Kerby Joseph (knee). That's four of Detroit's five starting defensive backs (and Maddox is a top depth piece). That's the state of Detroit's secondary.

BUCS ML!

To the Bank we go!

...ditto 

Ok. On to why the Texans pull off an upset. By all measure, it would be one.

Despite the fact that the Seahawks have lost a whopping eight times in their last 12 home games,....

....which is really disturbing when you think of it because that equates to 1/3rd or 33.3% winning percentage at home... they play at home 3 times, twice they lose... they have already lost twice at home this season...

The concept that a team is "due" to end their struggles isn't in line with historical trend of the NFL. When you struggle, you struggle. Home field hasn't been kind to the Seahawks. They are great road team and a coin toss at home.

This is still Sam Darnold and the Seahawks.

Tough one on Monday night, no question.


Let's face it. It is obvious there aren't a whole lot of handicappers out there all out on the Texans for Monday night.

But this is exactly why I like them. The public never handicaps games like these properly and never see it until it is too late. It's always some big shocking upset you read about the following day. Everyone left scratching their heads wondering why they all threw their money into the fireplace just because it "appears" to be a safe and easy pick to take Seattle.

There is reason this game is a 3 point push on most books. Even the books themselves believe this game is too close for comfort. Mind you, Darnold has some impressive percentages in his favor for game winning drives etc.

But...

When you talk about the Texans? Where do you start? The vaunted Defense.

I think this Texans Defensive unit stands out. Rankings place them 4th, but they very well could be 1st. Yes, I realize they haven't come up against "The D-Arnold Terminator T-800" offensive machine...

But this is Monday Night. On these prime time games, there is always some form of drama.

The Houston Texans currently have the BEST and highest-rated points per game allowed defense in the NFL, allowing an average of just 12.2 points per game. That's #1.

Now you can argue about competition and so forth. Fair argument. But if they weren't #1, given that argument, there could be pause for concern.

Seattle is a passing beast. Over 9.2 yards per pass while Houston is giving up only 5.7 yards per pass.

Believe me, they will be making plays. Seattle is pass happy.

Turnovers in this game may indeed be one of the deciding factors. If Seattle plays a perfect game on offense, steady but doesn't turn over the ball...This will make it difficult for Houston.

But that's not to say it all rides on the Defense.

There are too many handicappers out there not giving Houston's offense much, arguing the offensive line hasn't been as good as it should be. Understood. Houston comes into this game with a middle of the pack offense so to speak. But let's remember, this is a team coming off the bye, riding two wins and looking to bring themselves to .500. A lot of prep has gone into this game. Knowing that the Houston Texans are missing WR Christian Kirk doesn't help, but CJ Stroud is no slouch.

All things aside, Houston is generally perceived to be the healthier football team of the two coming into this game. Believe me, on road that matters a lot. Coming off the bye does hold significant advantages in terms of game preparation and physical endurance. Stats don't always show that. Records after the bye are misleading because year in and year out opponents and conditions are different. So I don't put much stock in it.

It boils down to this. The Texans are going to have to turn the corner a bit on offensive schemes and generate longer series to get through that very good Seattle Defense. Meanwhile, the Texans defense is going to have to make, what is typically a very efficient Seahawks offense, less efficient.

Seahawks are a massive public play. That should concern any handicappers out there that are well enough aware that there is nothing certain in the NFL.

If it was simply as easy as just take the Seahawks, sports books would be closed.

A couple of long drives, a few 3 and outs, maybe a turnover or 2, a couple of key stops bend but don't break defense, some disciplined football by Houston and you could very well be waking up tomorrow morning reading about how great CJ Stroud is.

It is how it always works. Nothing new to us. Sometimes the NFL is about instincts and guts as much as skill when it comes to picking winners.

Seattle isn't unbeatable. If they were? The line wouldn't be 3 points.

I'm going on guts and instincts on this play. I think Houston plays a really good game. Seattle, not so much.

TEXANS ML

@lookingtowin

@lajohn