Part 1 here... https://www.covers.com/forum/nfl-betting-21/super-bowl-phd-thesis-on-handicapping-practical-case-part-1-103496955/1#post-128939887
I am very sorry I could not put as much emphasis as I would have liked on this part 2. I did not have the time, but I am still delivering my thesis :)
Summing up, I feel some of the most predominant arguments to back one team or another are the following:
- Tom Brady is the GOAT. 10 Superbowls. QB experience at its maximum expression.
- Tampa´s defense. Especially, the D Line with Vita Vea, Suh and JPP should eat, against an injury plagued O Line of the Chiefs. They just tore apart the Packers and A-Rod, who had been regarded as the best O line in the league, and the least sacked QB in the league.
- Books seem to be treating this as a neutral field game.
- Tampa´s stats are influenced by its early games where they had not been playing as well as recently. They have not lost a game in around 2 months.
KC´s main arguments seem to be:
- The Mahomes-Kelce-Hill trio is unstoppable.
- Andy Reid is an offensive genius.
- Tampa´s secondary is its main weakness… which is no bueno when you are facing the most dynamic air offense in ages.
I am backing the Chiefs. I am taking the money line for the simple reason that I never bet spreads. Teams have no incentives on beating a spread. Their only incentive is winning. Spreads were made up for bettors (and mainly US bettors) craving for action at coinflip odds. But the variance on them is much higher for the reason I stated above related to the incentives. Mahomes may get the ball with 50 seconds at Tampas 10, leading by 1, and he will kneel and not score. The other way around he has that obligation to score. So, gimme the ML.
Now, you should be here, and I hope you are, for the WHY. And here it goes…
- Brady is the GOAT. But he is not playing at GOAT like levels. We need to be objective when capping. Brady is here because his defense stepped up big time when needed. They forced key turnovers that gave Brady the ball in opposing territory, and props to the GOAT, he converted those. However, do we see this happening with the Chiefs. Will Kelce fumble like Cook? Will CEH or Damian Williams pull an Aaron Jones and record their first fumble of the season in the Big Game?
- KC´s O line struggles. Losing Schwartz in Week 6 was huge. But… that was in week 6. We are in week 22, and KC´s stats are all right since losing Schwartz. Now, Fischer is not an elite tackle by no means. His loss is not as heavy as Schwartz. And KC has had 2 weeks to adapt, plus what it did in the Buffalo game which did not pose any big question marks. They did all right. Don´t get me wrong… I get that losing your LT, means you have to adjust your line and move a guard to play tackle and have a sub enter. But I don´t think this will be crucial. Mahomes – even with his sore foot (said to be near fully recovered) - is very elusive, and he is able to recognize the blitz and get rid of the ball quick (which is what makes him so different to say Russel Wilson). Also, Tampa´s D line is not exactly the quickest line out there. He will be pressured, but my take is he will get out safely most of the time. Run n shoot at its finest, giving enough time to Kelce, Hill, Hardman, Watkins and CEH/Williams to open up. This is what I feel that A-Rod lacked in his performance. The gut to trust your legs and try those big ol linemen and see if they were able to catch up (yes Vita Vea may be young but he is as slow as they get).