Now you bet on the Bears

I like em right off the bat.

Bears 1Q ML(-120) $240/$200

Bears 1Q -.5(+124) $100/$124

Maybe some thoughts later

Good luck Sac.  

bad trend on bears 1-9 as dogs off a non conf road game ok yes it's cincy but also cincy lost by 1 point as a fav which some times dosent work 

only dogs that lose by 1 point are almost 100% next game 

It's probably a good thing that they're favorites then, not dogs

Bears with Ben Johnson good early w the scripted plays. Moved the ball very well vs Ravens. I like it

@undermysac

 Like the play...

@Yanasaur

 That is correct. All year the Bears offense has looked fantastic with their first offensive possession, and somewhat similar with their 2nd possession. In general, the scripted plays are usually the first 15 plays give or take.

It was evident right away to begin the season. The Bears vs a Brian Flores defense marched down 61 yards to score a td that took 5:41 off the clock. Bears win the 1Q 7-0.

Week 2 @ Detroit, first drive went 74 yards in 3:43 for a tuddy. Although the defense didn't play their part vs the Lions high powered offense otr, gave up 2 td's and lost the 1Q 7-14.

Week 3 vs Dallas. The Bears did not score on their opening drive, but were able to score on their next 2 possessions all in the first quarter. A Dallas fumble helped them get 3 possessions in that quarter. Bears win the 1Q 14-3. As we all know, the Bears got smoked the rest of the game.

Week 4 @ Vegas. Another stalled first drive for the Bears. They punt but then get a fg with their 2nd drive. The defense did all they could by intercepting Geno Smith, and recovering a fumble on the Raiders first 2 drives. But the the Raiders return the favor and intercept Caleb, and score on their next drive. Bears lose the 1Q 3-7.

Week 6 @ Washington. First drive goes 41 yards in 4:19 and produced a fg. 2nd drive goes 36 yards in 3:39 and produces another fg after a costly Bears penalty(which has been a problem for this unit). The defense gets an interception off Jayden Daniels and recovers a fumble in the 1Q. Bears win the 1Q 6-0.

Week 7 vs the Saints. The Bears punt on their first possession after another penalty by the o line on 3rd and manageable. 2nd drive the Bears settle for a FG after Caleb and the center have trouble with the snap count on 2 different plays. Bears win the 1Q 3-0.

Week 8 @ Baltimore. The Bears scripted plays really looking good at this point, as their opening drive went for 64 yards on 13 plays while taking 8:10 off the clock. But once again, settle for a FG as Caleb takes a sack on 3rd n goal from the Baltimore 5. On their 2nd possession they go 61 yards on 11 plays in 4:31. Once again, settle for a fg. The Bears time of possession in the 1Q was 12:41. They win 6-0.

I'll post more on some stats and #'s in the next couple posts.

Let's just put down some raw 1Q #'s first.

The Bears this year are 5-2 su. They average 6.57 points per game. They allow an average of 3.43 ppg.

The Bengals are 2-4-2 su. They average 3.37 ppg, and allowed an average of 5.25 ppg.

One Caveat here, they had Joe Burrow in weeks 1 and 2 for the first quarter. If we take those games out, the Bengals are 1-4-1 su. Averaging 2.16 ppg, and allowing 5.83 ppg.

So they went to Jake Browning who was awful. Jake Browning in the 1Q this year is #35 in epa+cpoe composite(-0.044). It's a sample size at 28 plays, but there's no one worse. Bottom of the barrel.

So they traded for Flacco. He is #30 in epa+cpoe(0.020) in 56 plays. Not abysmal but still bad. And now he's banged up and might not play. He didn't practice again today. So back to Browning? I really don't think it matters but obviously would rather face Browning, which it's looking more likely. 

To be fair, I have voiced my opinions about Caleb on the forum. I'm not a fan. But here's his #'s in the 1Q compared to the Bengals guys.

#16 epa+cpoe composite(0.110) in 77 plays.

I had to set the filter at a minimum of 25 plays in order to see Jake Browning's stats.

@undermysac

 Do the bears have someone who can cover chase in the slot?

Game should be a shootout which favors the bears imo

Bengals made fields/jets look good

Bears offense in the 1Q:

#18 epa per play

#26 in Success Rate. For those who know how to read these analytical stats, this tells me that they are about to pop. I mentioned all the 1Q drives in detail, they are executing but basically fucking it up a lot, i,e penalties and mishaps.

#4 in 1Q ppg

#8 in 1Q T.O.P. share percentage 

Bears defense in the 1Q:

#1 in epa per play

#23 in Success Rate

#9 in ppga

Bengals 1Q offense(without Burrow):

#32 epa per play

#29 Success Rate

#31 ppg

#25 T.O.P. share percentage 

Bengals 1Q defense:

#31 epa per play

#31 Succes Rate

#22 ppga

Matchup wise, injuries, and situations:

It doesn't get much better than this imo.

The Bengals got the air taken right out of them vs a winless Jets team. How teams respond in these spots is all that matters. 

Naturally as bettors we look for bounce back spots, or a "zig zag" play.

If Burrow were to be hypothetically on the mend and set to return, then yea I bet that they'd be looking to bounce back. As being 3-5 in the afc north isn't a death sentence just yet. But where are they(mentally) most likely? They haven't had a bye week yet. And their bye week is coming up after this game.

Are they tired? Are they deflated? Or will they be hungry to erase that shitty loss to the Jets last week? 

We have an aging veteran QB who's brought a glimmer of hope to them, who is now hurt and might not play. Trey Hendrickson who is their only source of a pass rush is hurt and didn't practice today. His name is also amongst the hottest out there before the trading deadline. 

If you didn't know, the Bengals pass rush is dead last in pass rush win rate in the NFL.

I don't have the true answers to the questions above. If I were a fan, or a part of the Bengals organization in some way, I'd 100% "want" to win this game and head into the bye at 4-5 in an afc north division that's surprisingly become the worst in the league. It's winnable for anyone not named the Browns currently. 

On the flip side, after the loss to the Ravens, Bears HC Ben Johnson calls out his veterans and captains through the media.

https://youtu.be/vkdnmEK5YqI?si=To-olyJK2GWqOVAL

This is the type of stuff that gets players inspired to change what's happening. And if we as bettors are looking to zig zag on a team, this is what you want to hear.

On the defensive front(d line specifically) the Bears are getting an under the radar good addition back in their lineup for this game. They have not been good at getting pressure on the qb from the front 4 specifically. And it's coming painfully evident that Montez Sweat is not a true #1 DE, he needs help. So Austin Booker will be back at DE opposite of Sweat.

If you said "who?" I don't blame you. He led the pre season in sacks. Here's a little about him.

https://www.sportsmockery.com/chicago-bears/we-finally-know-what-is-happening-with-austin-booker/

You have been down on the Bears all year. So when you say to bet on them I will tail

I hope it wins 

Ya didn't have to talk me into it.