NOV 9

50-36   +1177

ATL +6.5 -105

ATL U48.5 -110

MIA +9.5 -108

NE +2.5 +100

NE U48.5 -105

NO +5.5 -105

AZ +7 -107

SF +5 -105

SF U49.5 -105

@Raiders22

 GL this week raiders 

what’s the scoop on Miami??

@Raiders22

Impressive record BOL 

Good Luck Raiders22

@brn2loslive2win

 Very quick snippets:

Miami is getting a couple of guys back on defense.  Bills have the highest rate for running.  Miami DVOA is pretty decent again the run and improving every week.

Tua at home with a big number is a decent cover.  Allen on road with a big number is not elite.  Allen is 2-6 on the road as a 7.5 point favorite or more.  

Miami after losing by 20+ as a 7 point dog last week -- teams in these situations are 15-7 ATS.

Very good spot to buy low on Miami.

But you can argue they are low for good reason.  

Tua at home or indoors is good.  Tua in second straight home game in this spot is 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS.  

Tua as a dog in this spot is 3-0 SU and ATS.

Tua at home is 26-11 SU and when they lose and he is home again is 3-0 SU and ATS and covers those game by average of 15 points per game.

Tua at back to back home games as an underdog is hard not to look at.

One model I had BUF -6.2, and one had BUF -10.9.

I think the NFL is a very QB-centric now and you have to look at these things when they stand out.

The other thing is I think if it plays out with Miami getting players back and being able to stop a team that loves to run from running makes it a value play.

I think it could be low-scoring because of this.  Coupled with the fact that Miami has struggled to throw the ball and the Bills will look to stop their run as well.  Miami will do all they can to avoid a trackmeet I think.

That makes me see slightly over a 4% edge the way I figure it.  That is enough for me to play it in this situation.

@brn2loslive2win

 They still have to play the game and BUF wants that top spot and one theory says MIA has halfway given up on the coach and the season.  But still a divisional game, etc.

BOL Raiders 

Ft dolphins 

Nice work buddy  

22 

Good luck Raiders