NFL WEEK 7............................2024

Seems like an over-reaction to Saints 4 game losing streak and the big blowout loss last week..........

Thurs night 0-1, lost 1.2 units

Brutal beatdown Broncos put on the Saints. 

With that beat down Saints re-qualify as a BF play on team. Very good spot for Saints next week.

And the Saints become a reverse Bator method 3 out of 4 play on team to go with the BF.

I've  added this into 3 out of 4 Bator method, since teams scoring 30 pts, giving up 10 is winning by 20 pts or more the 3 of 4 needs to have a team winning or losing both games by 20 or more which Saints qualify with that.

Very good spot on Saints their next game.

Interesting  that Rattler had the slightly better Passer Rating 82.1 to 79.6.

I'm  trying to figure-out how each element  is weighted and by how much to possibly create my own PR.

When we look  at the elements of PR neither QB had a TD or INT. 

So that brings us to completion % and ave per pass attempt.

Rattler hammered Nix in completion % 71.4 to 61.5 = 9.9 difference.

Nix win the ave per pass 6.3 to 4.9 = 1.4.

When I see this Rattler looks bad because  with  a high completion % and only a 4.9 ave that's  pathetic, he cant be throwing the ball down field. Must be alot of 2 or 3 yard passes, easy to complete.

Since PR was almost even, 82.1 to 79.6 only a 2.5 difference, the Passer Rating  formula would then would rate a 9.9 % completion difference  almost even with a 1.4 difference  in average per pass.

Maybe it takes into consideration who had the most passes attempted with no INTs, I suppose that could carry value, a positive.

As well as more pass attempts with fewer TDs would be a negative.

I'm  pretty sure PR gives more weight to INTs then TDs so if that is the case the QB with more passes attempts would gain pts.

Some years ago I looked up Brady since he did beat my PRs quite a bit in playoffs. He did well in ave per pass and Pats did well in ave per pass margin but Brady and the Pats did very well many years in completion % margin something I've never considered.

That was an eye- opener to how important completion % is.

And when we look at Rattlers 9.9 % difference being slightly better then a 1.4 ave per pass difference once again we see how important  it is as far as PR I'd concerned.

PR has the highest correlation to winning and predictive value going forward of any single Stat. At least it did on the past. Haven't check it since maybe 5 or so years ago.

At one point in the 2cd quarter Rattler was 14.3 % better in completion  % with Nix being only .4 better in ave per pass.

That equated to a 10.2 difference in PR for Rattler.

Nix 7.7 to 7.3. Ave per pas

Rattler 71.4 to 57.1 completion  %

Here Rattler looks alot better with his completion  % being high he also has a nice ave per pass.

And He was much better in PR at that point then Nix.

I may consider adding completion  % to PR I but will still use original as I have alot of history  with it.

Any new PR I'd want to see some history before making any plays.

Now that I can see the importance  of completion % especially  with Brady and the Pats and how Mahomes is doing all the same things Brady did. Winning the same way.

Let's check the teams thus far in completion  % margin.

1. Texans 14.97

2 KC 6.3.

3 Lions 6.47

4 wash 5.36

5 9ers 3.86

6 vikes 3.07

7 Bears 2.53

8 Pitt 1.53

9 Pack (-5.83)

I only checked these 9 teams. But we can see by this list of the best teams that it is difficult to have any big margin.

Only 3 teams over 6%. 4 over 5%.

But Mahomes and KC are right there at the top.

Texans are unreal at this point. They rank no.1 on defense at 53.33, that's crazy considering no other team on this list of teams is under 60%.

Maybe played some weaker QBs and I'd say they likely regress I doubt many teams have ended the season that high. A great season is 10%.

interestingly they play Pack who are terrible but Love did miss games so he has a small sample of games played, only 58.9% for Love, easily the worst.

But if the Pack has a very high ave per pass they can off-set that much like Nix did with Rattler.

I'll  definitely be interested  how this goes in Texans/Pack game.

KC is 6.9 in 2cd place not 6.3.

6.9 is very good.

Another interesting  Stat comparing Brady and Mahomes.

Brady did very well in yards per pts and pts per plays as well as Mahomes doing well.

I like pts per plays better to measure good passing teams because pts come out of the passing game and even more important scoring quick with fewer plays definitely comes from  passing. And stopping big plays in passing.

In KCs 3 SB wins.........

2019 ranked 2cd .167

2022 ranked 3rd .116

2023 ranked 6th .062, not very good. But they had issues with receivers dropping passes and fumbling.  Then with 4 or 5 weeks left they changed playing time for the problem guys and did much better. 

Now look at losing SB, they rank 3rd but .093, well below their good years and Brady and Bucs ranked 2cd .137, much better then KC

2021 they ranked 9th .080 and failed to make the SB losing to Bengals .090.

If we look at the AFC title game and SB...........

When Mahomes was better ..........4-0 SU

When Mahomes was not better .....3-2 SU

We can see the importance of this Stat.

Brady had  similar results. 

2024 ...........

Mahomes & KC rank 9th at .082 right at the 2021 spot were they failed to make the SB.

Ravens were the best team in those past 5 years, finishing 1st in pts per plays margin 3 times yet have no SB appearances and only 1 AFC title game appearance to show for it.

Bills had 2... 2cd place finishes with no SBs or AFC title game to show for it.

Bills finished 5th in 2020 then lost to KC 38-24 in AFC title game.

Ravens are clearly regular season wonder-boys but playoff crash & burn fellows.

Steelers +1.5 over Jets --- 1.1 units

Top 3 largest performer off a 10 win season in week  1 and off 1-2 ATS past 3 weeks.

Arod doesn't look the same.

Tomlin excellent as a dog, another game with a dog becoming a fav, not a good spot for Jets.

Granted Adam's goes to Jets and R Wilson may start for Steelers so we have different elements.

Steve Fezzik says he adjusted his PR and his line to PK from Steelers being the favorite.

He really liked the Steelers last week in the look ahead lines at-1 , likes them now in teasers.

I'm  not making my play off anything he said.

His best bet was Eagles -3 over Giants.

Just saying guys what he has.

Nice work claw, you probably hated the results, considering your negativity on Houston ;-). Made my day..................................gl