NFL WEEK 5 ..........................2024

Yea, Bengals look pathetic while Lions look like world-beaters, very good spot to back the Bengals ................

Other system ..............3-2

Eagles -4 over Broncos --- .55 units

I hate to back this Eagles team but the method does call for a fade on the Broncos so I have to take it.

Was some -3.5 but now I see -4.5's and -4 so doubtful it would have gotten down to -3.

Best of luck, but the game simply does not pass the eye test. Cleveland has shut teams down, especially the run. This includes Cincy. The Lions ran all over Cleveland last week. The Lions are tops in scoring and Bengals defense are 30th. I feel the Lions will run roughshod. I don't think Cincy can score with the Lions. The Lions pass rush looked great last week.  

All very true ...............

However that's not how it always works. Lions have KC on deck then the Bucs and they just beat-up Browns.

This is a spot they very well  could come out very flat as it is too easy for them to beat Bengals and they don't need much motivation to do it and with KC on deck no point in hurting themselves this week.

This is why sports betting is not easy.

According to PR II the 9ers should of beat the Rams by .54 of a point.

In other words a very close game and as it turns out it was a close down-to-the-wire game either team could of won.

Interesting that when PR II says a team should win by less then 4 pts they actually win only 3 of 12 games or 3-9 SU.

But when they should win by 4 pts or more they have actually won 47 of 52 games. Or 47-5.

That is most likely better then normal of PR II. Since I never track it I don't really know but I am aware of it to some degree.

By year's end most playoff teams play on the field will be within 4 pts of their margin of victory.

So in other words each teams play on the field and their margin of victory will even out over time.

Some teams get way ahead in either play on the field or margin of victory but that is not sustainable  longer term.

A teams margin of victory has to be within reason of the teams play on the field.

MY OTHER SYSTEM is based on this regression and play on the field and margin of victory evening out .

Just wanted to point this out as it is not some simple trend .

The Bounce Factor ...........

Titans +8.5 ...... 1 unit play

Bucs +3.5 .........1 unit play

Other system .............

Bills +7.5 .......... .5 unit play

Eagles -4 .......... .5 unit play

Regression play ........

Bengals +10.5 .......... .5 unit play

@theclaw

 Bills plus.  

Yes -7.5 ...............................

Top 5 Pts per Plays Margin ................

1. Seahawks .226

2. Lion's .177

3. Ravens .159

4. Colts .149

5. Vikings. .107

6. Broncos .106... missed by a whisker

With Bills, Wash, Eagles,Packers rounding out the top 10.

Highly likely at least 3 of the top 5 will make the playoffs 

And could be 4 of the top 5 so if you are considering and futures plays this info possibly could help.

@theclaw

 doesn’t get many plays, but gets three in one day OK buddy