It's the Bounce Factor ................. 1-0 ATS
Titans +8.5 (-118) over Zona ---- 1.18 units
Bucs +3.5 (-115) over Seahawks ----- 1.15 units
Seahawks playing on a unsustainable high level while Titans playing on a unsustainable low level.
My Bounce Factor II which I just discovered last year also has a play on the Titans.
Doesn't get many plays per year but does well.
I may try to find other ways to use it to get plays.
I have some possible very interesting plays this week.
Bengals almost a reverse Bator method play, they miss by 2 pts. Losing 10-48 and losing to Broncos 3-28.
And they are off back-to-back games of 10 pts or fewer.
And they are almost a PR II Bounce Factor play on team, they missed by less then 1 pt.
While the Lions are almost a PR II Bounce Factor fade team, they missed by less then 2 pts.
The exact requirements to be a fade or play on are not etch in stone, it is only what I like to see.
Both teams are kind of in the grey area so I could make a play or I could remain disciplined and only use the exact requirements I set for a play.
Play has to be on the Bengals or no play.
It is not like it is only 1 indicator calling for Bengals, with a few indicators almost there I need to consider a play on the Bengals.
At this point I'd wait out the line, it moved to 10 and now I see 10.5 at 1 book. If this line keeps climbing and does not go back down once it peaks I pretty much have to play Bengals in this game.
@theclaw
Enjoyed your write-up. I was looking at the Giants @ the Aints who are 1 point favorites. The Saints might be able to run the ball on that Giants' D. I am reluctant though as Action Jaxson Dart might be the real deal. All the best 
Yes so true. With a play like this you need to trust the method..................
It's scary for sure but things happen.
I saw you tube saying Eagles were the best team.
At this point I don't see it. Maybe by year's end they become the best team. It's very early.
Eagles have problems with their offense. They are 30th in yards gained but 7th in pts scored.
That don't jive.
Much like I pointed out with the Ravens.
Eagles outgained in total yards and look at ave per play.
Eagles 4.2 and they give up 5.4 = (-1.2)
How can a team (-1.2) yards per play be the best team in the league ?
4.2 is terrible and they ave only 5 yards per pass attempt while giving up 5.8 = (-.8)
But they are undefeated and are 7th in pts scored.
If we look closer they have won the TO Battle 1 to 5 by 4. And block kicks for TD's.
And incredibly they are 11 for 11 scoring TD's in the redzone, 100%, not sustainable much longer as last year they were 57%.
While their defense is holding opps to 4 TD's in 11 tries or 36.4%.
I look up the past 10 years and only 4 or 5 teams held opps to under 40% on the season. Mostly the best teams were around 44% .
Last year Eagles were 50% giving up TD's in red zone so their defense is not sustainable either.
The key here is to look at how many red zone attempts the Eagles have VS opps.
And it is 11 to 11. That is not stuff of the best team. The better teams should have many more attempts getting into the red zone then their opps do.
Last year the Eagles were around 68 to only 45 for their defense, somewhere in that neighborhood.
As of now I don't see how the Eagles could be the best team.
The question was not who will become the best team, maybe the Eagles get things straighten-out and become the best team but as of now how could they be considered the best team ?
I am leaning Denver , even though they play on a short week and have a trip overseas next. Payton seems to have his team perform well after MNF. Eagles have division rival Giants on Thurs but from what I've seen they don't seem to have problems putting teams away even with a short week coming
The Eagles may be 4-0, but they're 0-4 ITS (in the stats). They're playing clean football though, taking advantage of opponents' mistakes, and making huge plays on special teams. Probably not sustainable over the course of the whole season. I still think by the end of the season Green Bay will be the team to beat in the NFC.
Great analysis and enjoyable reading. Thanks.
That is one of the more interesting games this week............
With Eagles offense not playing well VS Broncos defense could get ugly for Eagles.
We'll see what both these teams are made of this week.
Opps did it again..............
My Bills -7.5 over Pats should be .55 units, not 1.1 units I posted above.
All my plays on my other system are .55 untill after a couple losing weeks then I will raise them to 1 unit plays.
It's a habit to put 1.1 units if I am to busy or not thinking straight as I was this morning.
I do have 1 more play off my other system which I just found, I forgot to log it into my plays i keep of all the plays of the system.
But wait out the line for now.
I did see the Buces +4 5 at 1 book, seems odd since other books have it at +3.
Here is a very interesting trend I have from last year or the year before.
I write down a few of these I like but don't always go over every one each week.
I get these on you tube so can't speak for the accuracy of them.
This one is a banger this week.................
Fade a road favorite who is outscoring opps by 10 pts or more and are also off a 10 pt or more win
I didn't see anything about after how many weeks before this applies. I'd think that would be important.
Who does it apply to ?
Lions 12.3 pt margin off a 24 pt win.
46-17 ATS past 10 years from either last year or the year before.
I did not use this to make my Bengals play but very nice to see it does support Bengals .
I did have another very good regression trend had a fade on Lions last week I got from you tube which I doubt Lions can beat these trends back-to-back weeks.
Here's another one..........
Back small road dogs off 6 wins or less last year.
I don't know what is considered small road dogs but 1 game fits this.
I didn't see or maybe didn't write down the record.
But applies to Giants. And another trend is teams that flop from dog to favorite are fades.
That'd be Saints.
Plus very possuble we could have a large line movement on the Saints, always fade these.
Oh boy many like the Saints.
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