YTD (NFL): 41-40-2 (BIG PLAY!!!: 13-15-2)
Pretty AMAZING run we have been on. Thursday night was a layup with the Ravens and Lamar back doing things to the Dolphins they always seem to do. More importantly for myself, it put me above .500 for the first time this season. It's been a tough year for once in the NFL and I was really getting slammed on early games and that in of itself was puzzling. So righting the ship is something I am very very grateful for because I actually do play these games and was quite under water during the slide.
But alas, a new Sunday is upon us. Not sure how it can follow that World Series, which was probably one of the best I've ever watched. So hopefully football today will leave us stating something along the same lines, but that is clearly only dependent on how well we profit. Here is what I am on today...
LA CHARGERS (-9.5)...BIG PLAY!!!: MAYBE the Tennessee defense somehow locks down the Chargers offense? Otherwise, ZERO shot this doesn't end up a final by 10 or more points. Even though the Chargers are 1-4 ATS over their last 5 games, they are an impressive 10-3-2 ATS in its last 15 games against Tennessee. Tennessee have gone a paltry 0-11 ATS in their last 11 at home and 5-18-1 ATS over their last 24 at home. I'm slamming this and teasing it personally.
OVER 51.5 (CHI/CIN): These two teams have not shown a lot on defense, especially in these given situations. The Bears miraculously hit the OVER (a game I was on myself) last week vs. the Ravens though it took the second half for them to make that happen. The Bengals scored and hemorrhaged points from the start last week. I know that the coaches will be asking the defenses to show up and do better, but I just don't think there are enough really solid pieces for that to change the fate I see here.
NEW ENGLAND (-5): SUUUUUUPER tempted to play this as a big play. I don't think Penix is as good as he might one day be, and Drake Maye and the Patriots keep making believers out of the pundits. But they have been extremely good vs. the Falcons historically going 7-0 ATS over the past 7 and 3-0 ATS more recently over the past 3. I do think the total might be a bit low but haven't checked the weather and really love this spot for Vrabel and his motivated team.
OVER 51.5 (IND/PITT)...BIG PLAY!!!: in the last 12 played between these two in Pittsburgh, 10 have gone over the total.. In the last 5 played in Pittsburgh, all five have gone over the total. Add to that two offenses that are scoring at a pretty high clip and a puzzlingly inept defense with the Steelers and I'm going to play this as my biggest wager of the day.
Not sure if this post is too long so I will return if I can get it published with perhaps another FH play. Otherwise, do your own research and, as always, tail or fade, good luck to all...
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