These games in London are so often low scoring it's a bit crazy to take an over especially with the Rams missing their best weapon, and having a defense that is performing really well in a lot of stats.
But the Rams only played 2 teams with offenses in the top half of the league in yards and they gave up 20 to Indy and 26 to SF. Philly they gave up 33 to (7 on special teams) and the other teams were dreadful Titans, Baltimore without Lamar, and Houston who is mediocre on offense too.
Mac Jones threw all over them so I think TL could will be efficient enough and I expect the Jags to do well in their 2nd home in London. They're a very in and out team so I'm hoping they bounce back from last week and play more like they did vs the Chiefs and that the seattle game was a bit of a look ahead.
I just think we're due an over for a London game and I always like Overs for neutral field AFC vs NFC games as teams will play a little looser than in conf or in division.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Jags vs Rams Over 44.5
These games in London are so often low scoring it's a bit crazy to take an over especially with the Rams missing their best weapon, and having a defense that is performing really well in a lot of stats.
But the Rams only played 2 teams with offenses in the top half of the league in yards and they gave up 20 to Indy and 26 to SF. Philly they gave up 33 to (7 on special teams) and the other teams were dreadful Titans, Baltimore without Lamar, and Houston who is mediocre on offense too.
Mac Jones threw all over them so I think TL could will be efficient enough and I expect the Jags to do well in their 2nd home in London. They're a very in and out team so I'm hoping they bounce back from last week and play more like they did vs the Chiefs and that the seattle game was a bit of a look ahead.
I just think we're due an over for a London game and I always like Overs for neutral field AFC vs NFC games as teams will play a little looser than in conf or in division.
Bears are finally putting it together and I love this spot for them coming home after back to back road wins they face a team that is certainly far behind them in their rebuild. Both road games for NO have been lopsided losses and Chicago fully deserved that win last week vs the Commanders. I don't see a letdown off that revenge win because they are still last place in the brutal NFC North at 3-2 and had a bye before last week so they should be well able to keep the momentum going.
While they rank last in yards per play allowed the Bears faced some really good offenses so far and played better getting some guys back in the secondary and NO has a similar lack of weapons to Washington last week only having Deebo who just isn't a number 1 guy he needs to be in space and doesn't get that when he's the main one the defense keys on.
They're one of the top 5 3rd down conversion defense and lead the NFL in takeaways so they're not completely incompetent though they have an absymal pass rush. They didn't do too bad vs the Washington top rated run game and I think this is a team that has talent and just needed to start getting the breaks, finish games and get a few Ws to get that confidence and they have that at the moment.
0
Bears -3.5
Bears are finally putting it together and I love this spot for them coming home after back to back road wins they face a team that is certainly far behind them in their rebuild. Both road games for NO have been lopsided losses and Chicago fully deserved that win last week vs the Commanders. I don't see a letdown off that revenge win because they are still last place in the brutal NFC North at 3-2 and had a bye before last week so they should be well able to keep the momentum going.
While they rank last in yards per play allowed the Bears faced some really good offenses so far and played better getting some guys back in the secondary and NO has a similar lack of weapons to Washington last week only having Deebo who just isn't a number 1 guy he needs to be in space and doesn't get that when he's the main one the defense keys on.
They're one of the top 5 3rd down conversion defense and lead the NFL in takeaways so they're not completely incompetent though they have an absymal pass rush. They didn't do too bad vs the Washington top rated run game and I think this is a team that has talent and just needed to start getting the breaks, finish games and get a few Ws to get that confidence and they have that at the moment.
Yes they had -10 yards passing, allowed 9 sacks and couldn't finish a game they should have won but this is a major step down from playing the best defense with the best pass rush to playing the team with the least sacks on the season who despite their improvement isn't the type of team to win 3 in a row even vs an 0-6 team. The Jets did give the Broncos fits for most of the game and covered the spread. Carolina just faced a really bad Dallas defense. The Jets got their first takeaway of the season finally last game and now face a team with zero in 3 games. If they can win that battle again they can finally pull out a victory to go along with it.
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Jets+1.5
Yes they had -10 yards passing, allowed 9 sacks and couldn't finish a game they should have won but this is a major step down from playing the best defense with the best pass rush to playing the team with the least sacks on the season who despite their improvement isn't the type of team to win 3 in a row even vs an 0-6 team. The Jets did give the Broncos fits for most of the game and covered the spread. Carolina just faced a really bad Dallas defense. The Jets got their first takeaway of the season finally last game and now face a team with zero in 3 games. If they can win that battle again they can finally pull out a victory to go along with it.
Cowboys ML (i always moneyline any favs from 1-2.5)
Yes their defense is awful and missing their best player too but the absolute best matchup for a defense like that is a team missing all their top 3 WRs and Ertz though he will play, was gimpy last week where they werr thoroughly unimpressive vs a Chicago team which, though like I said their defense wasn't as bad as their yards per game numbers, was still allowing MORE yards per play than even this terrible Cowboy defense.
Beyond that, the Commies have turnover problems. Their rookie had a bad fumble last week that directly led to points and Daniels followed that up with a horrendous pick in the red zone. Then they fumbled again 2nd half and the fumble was Daniels fault on the handoff too.
Like the Jets play it's tough to take Dallas at this point but I feel like Washington isn't playing well right now, isn't healthy, and Daniels might be hitting a sophomore slump messing up in the red zone and making mistakes
0
Cowboys ML (i always moneyline any favs from 1-2.5)
Yes their defense is awful and missing their best player too but the absolute best matchup for a defense like that is a team missing all their top 3 WRs and Ertz though he will play, was gimpy last week where they werr thoroughly unimpressive vs a Chicago team which, though like I said their defense wasn't as bad as their yards per game numbers, was still allowing MORE yards per play than even this terrible Cowboy defense.
Beyond that, the Commies have turnover problems. Their rookie had a bad fumble last week that directly led to points and Daniels followed that up with a horrendous pick in the red zone. Then they fumbled again 2nd half and the fumble was Daniels fault on the handoff too.
Like the Jets play it's tough to take Dallas at this point but I feel like Washington isn't playing well right now, isn't healthy, and Daniels might be hitting a sophomore slump messing up in the red zone and making mistakes
A bad team led by two rookies gets a big win on national TV over the super bowl champs and division rival = auto fade next time out. Broncos seemed to overlook the Jets and still pulled it out with their stellar defense which I imagine Dart will struggle mightily against. The Broncos also beat the Eagles in Philly and I don't see them overlooking the Giants after that win you have to keep winning in the AFC West anyway.
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Broncos -7
A bad team led by two rookies gets a big win on national TV over the super bowl champs and division rival = auto fade next time out. Broncos seemed to overlook the Jets and still pulled it out with their stellar defense which I imagine Dart will struggle mightily against. The Broncos also beat the Eagles in Philly and I don't see them overlooking the Giants after that win you have to keep winning in the AFC West anyway.
Little worried about teams record coming back from London but tbh most of the time it's crap teams getting sent over there. Bit brave taking both teams but i don't think they'll both lose.
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Little worried about teams record coming back from London but tbh most of the time it's crap teams getting sent over there. Bit brave taking both teams but i don't think they'll both lose.
1-2 start looks like, thanks to the Jags being totally inept on offense and yeah, taking the Jets i need my head examined.
Anyway,
Adding a play that i stayed off of at first because it's a lot of points to lay on the road but I am gonna go ahead and lay a TD with GB vs the Cardinals.
Arizona is a bad team, the loss to the Titans was proof of that, and they are also decimated by injury.
Murray is out and he is their leading rusher. Their 2nd and 3rd and 4th leading rushers are ALL out too. That includes Demarcado the idiot who fumbled at the goal line celebrating.
Jacoby Brissett had a good game vs Indianapolis and they almost won, but they didn't - again. And I think they were fired up to try and amend for that disaster vs Tennessee, couldn't pull it off and I don't see them keeping this one as close vs a GB team who needs to keep pace in their competitive division.
Backups rarely have 2 good games in a row, and when they are successful it's usually because they have other elements to help them. Like, for example, a good run game. But the Cardinals have no run game and no RBs. The other thing can help is facing a team with a weak defense. And while Joe Flacco had some success vs them and the Bengals covered due to that, the Packers still rank 1st in the NFL in yards per attempt allowed.
Another thing that helped the Bengals a lot was Love threw a red zone pick. But they are averaging less than 1 giveaway per game so it was again, a bit of an anomaly. The Packers still almost covered that 14 pt spread but that pick plus and amazing Chase catch stopped them from doing so.
Arizona doesn't have the weapons the Bengals have. Marv Jr is decent but he's still young and is not on the level of Chase or even Higgins. All the elements you need for Brissett to have a chance just aren't there.
The Packers have 2 weaknesses: they don't get takeaways and they give up the most 4th quarter points in the NFL. But they also haven't given up a single 1st quarter point this season. I'll take the team that starts well and I simply don't think Brissett is gonna backdoor us like the elite Joe Flacco did
0
1-2 start looks like, thanks to the Jags being totally inept on offense and yeah, taking the Jets i need my head examined.
Anyway,
Adding a play that i stayed off of at first because it's a lot of points to lay on the road but I am gonna go ahead and lay a TD with GB vs the Cardinals.
Arizona is a bad team, the loss to the Titans was proof of that, and they are also decimated by injury.
Murray is out and he is their leading rusher. Their 2nd and 3rd and 4th leading rushers are ALL out too. That includes Demarcado the idiot who fumbled at the goal line celebrating.
Jacoby Brissett had a good game vs Indianapolis and they almost won, but they didn't - again. And I think they were fired up to try and amend for that disaster vs Tennessee, couldn't pull it off and I don't see them keeping this one as close vs a GB team who needs to keep pace in their competitive division.
Backups rarely have 2 good games in a row, and when they are successful it's usually because they have other elements to help them. Like, for example, a good run game. But the Cardinals have no run game and no RBs. The other thing can help is facing a team with a weak defense. And while Joe Flacco had some success vs them and the Bengals covered due to that, the Packers still rank 1st in the NFL in yards per attempt allowed.
Another thing that helped the Bengals a lot was Love threw a red zone pick. But they are averaging less than 1 giveaway per game so it was again, a bit of an anomaly. The Packers still almost covered that 14 pt spread but that pick plus and amazing Chase catch stopped them from doing so.
Arizona doesn't have the weapons the Bengals have. Marv Jr is decent but he's still young and is not on the level of Chase or even Higgins. All the elements you need for Brissett to have a chance just aren't there.
The Packers have 2 weaknesses: they don't get takeaways and they give up the most 4th quarter points in the NFL. But they also haven't given up a single 1st quarter point this season. I'll take the team that starts well and I simply don't think Brissett is gonna backdoor us like the elite Joe Flacco did
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