Heads-up: Looks Like Brock Purdy out for Thursday, Mac Jones set to start for SF. Deep dive preview and analysis

t has now been confirmed that Brock Purdy will sit out with a toe injury and San Francisco will turn to Mac Jones. The obvious question for us as bettors is how this changes the picture going into a divisional matchup with the Rams.

San Francisco is not just losing Purdy. Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall are also out, and George Kittle is still on injured reserve. Brandon Aiyuk has not returned, leaving the 49ers with Kendrick Bourne and Demarcus Robinson as the top options at wide receiver. Christian McCaffrey will carry a heavy load both on the ground and as a safety valve in the passing game. On defense, Nick Bosa is gone for the season and the secondary has been patchwork with Malik Mustapha out.

Los Angeles has fewer concerns. Tyler Higbee and Rob Havenstein are both doubtful, but Matthew Stafford is healthy and the Rams have their full set of weapons with Puka Nacua and Davante Adams leading the attack.

The Rams are averaging twenty five points per game while allowing just over twenty. The passing game ranks near the top of the league with more than two hundred sixty yards per game and the run game is producing a respectable one hundred twenty yards on average. The defense has created turnovers and has been able to pressure quarterbacks consistently.

The 49ers are averaging twenty points per game, which is in the bottom third of the league. Their pass offense has been strong in raw yardage at nearly two hundred eighty yards a game but that has not translated to consistent scoring because of red zone inefficiency and a ground game stuck at eighty eight yards per game. The defense has kept them competitive, giving up fewer than nineteen points per game, but losing Bosa changes their ceiling.

Matchup dynamics

Mac Jones is efficient in short areas but has struggled to push the ball downfield. With the Niners missing several of their primary pass catchers, the game plan will likely lean heavily on McCaffrey and a quick passing scheme designed to limit turnovers. The problem is that the Rams defense has been playing fast and aggressive, ranking in the top five by most efficiency measures.

Stafford has been in rhythm with Nacua and Adams, and the Rams have looked comfortable both stretching the field and sustaining long drives. Even if Havenstein misses the game, Los Angeles has enough depth up front to hold its own against a San Francisco front that has lost some bite.

Los Angeles has won three straight in this rivalry, including a grind it out twelve to six result late last season. Oddsmakers opened this week with the Rams as small favorites, but the Purdy injury swung the line dramatically. The Rams are now laying around seven with the total sitting near forty six. The market has clearly adjusted to both Purdy’s absence and the cluster of injuries on the San Francisco side.

San Francisco is banged up, down their starting quarterback, top tight end, and multiple wide receivers. The Rams are healthy, producing on offense, and defending at a high level. That combination explains why the spread and total have moved. I am not making a pick yet, but I thought it was important to lay out the current state of both teams, the market reaction, and the matchup data so everyone has the right information going into Thursday.

This rivalry has been streaky. San Francisco dominated for years with seven straight wins during the Garoppolo stretch, but the Rams have now taken the last three meetings including a twelve to six battle late last season. Many of these games have been tighter and lower scoring than the market expected, with both defenses playing a big role.

I am not comfortable putting out a prediction yet, but I may post one before the game by tomorrow night.

good stuff gape

In case anyone is wondering why the numbers are spelled out it's because I used transcription I don't type I talk so that's what happens it messes things up a little bit sometimes I should probably proofread anyways best of luck everyone.

@JimmyGape

 I am very tempted to take the Rams for my survivor pick this week since all these injuries have popped up for SF. Still have 24 hours to figure it out but just can't see the Rams losing this game. 

Thanks for sharing your thoughts! 

Nice write up Jimmy good luck this week bud 

I do believe Rams are the play here with all injury concerns that you have mentioned and wonder how high will the final line be come game time as the points may indeed come into play here in the end.

Niners decimated by injuries again. I don't even know what to say anymore.

Liking the Under here. i see it dropped another point. Thanks for sharing your thoughts

Line is up to 8'. Call me crazy but I'm kinda leaning S.F. here for no logical reason. Niners with their backs to the wall, Rams maybe a little overconfident.....weird shit happens in the NFL. Waiting to see if the line creeps up a little higher or if there'll be some buy back. 

Backs to the wall? They are 3-1 and tied for 1st.

Even before these injury announcements I picked Rams for survivor on Tuesday. My assumption was theyd all be out. Im thinking pretty square on this game, Rams blowout. 

However, I would not bet the -7.5 or 8, this one likely can be a low scoring ugly blowout, where Rams completely control the game, are up 20-6 or 24-9 late, and then give up that backdoor cover in garbage time. 

I was referring to their injury situation. Few people expect the Niners to win this game, and the money line reflects that. But it's worth noting that the underdog has gone 11-1-1 ATS  in the last 13 meetings between these two.