DEN is 2-1, LV is 0-3. Last season LV had 3 more wins; this season DEN's Regular Season Wins Line was 2 more than LV's. Therefore, I consider them more roughly equal than DEN as much stronger. A SU win by DEN would leave them at 3-1 and LV at 0-4; I just don't think those two DIV rivals are that disparate in strength.
I attempted to search the Sports Database at Killer Sports by writing queries about potential "balancing games." One such query yielded promising Query Results(QRs) with these parameters:
HF (LV)/DIV/two fewer wins this season/off a loss vs. off a win
SU: 29-12-0 (6.63, 70.7%)
ATS: 20-20-1 (2.93, 50.0%) avg line -3.7
Hitting just 50% ATS is obviously not worth betting; hitting 70+% while laying -140 or -145 on the money line is. An average SU margin of 6.63 points provides a certain level of confidence.
The average total was 41.9, much lower than the posted total of 45.5. Since DEN has neither scored nor allowed 18 points or more, I guess the bookmakers are saying that Carr may carve up or Wilson may rack up. I inserted a totals band of 42.5 to 48.5 points and got these QRs:
SU: 11-3-0 (8.14, 78.6%)
ATS: 6-8-0 (4.14, 42.9%) 6-8, but a positive avg margin avg line -4.0
Since the current line is -2.5, I inserted that in as a margin over 2.5 = 8, under 2.5 = 6
DEN is 2-1, LV is 0-3. Last season LV had 3 more wins; this season DEN's Regular Season Wins Line was 2 more than LV's. Therefore, I consider them more roughly equal than DEN as much stronger. A SU win by DEN would leave them at 3-1 and LV at 0-4; I just don't think those two DIV rivals are that disparate in strength.
I attempted to search the Sports Database at Killer Sports by writing queries about potential "balancing games." One such query yielded promising Query Results(QRs) with these parameters:
HF (LV)/DIV/two fewer wins this season/off a loss vs. off a win
SU: 29-12-0 (6.63, 70.7%)
ATS: 20-20-1 (2.93, 50.0%) avg line -3.7
Hitting just 50% ATS is obviously not worth betting; hitting 70+% while laying -140 or -145 on the money line is. An average SU margin of 6.63 points provides a certain level of confidence.
The average total was 41.9, much lower than the posted total of 45.5. Since DEN has neither scored nor allowed 18 points or more, I guess the bookmakers are saying that Carr may carve up or Wilson may rack up. I inserted a totals band of 42.5 to 48.5 points and got these QRs:
SU: 11-3-0 (8.14, 78.6%)
ATS: 6-8-0 (4.14, 42.9%) 6-8, but a positive avg margin avg line -4.0
Since the current line is -2.5, I inserted that in as a margin over 2.5 = 8, under 2.5 = 6
dont know what that all means but it adds up to broncos winning...rthey are 2-1 with a qb who didnt know the playbook..defence running game cracing qb..wide receivers...can run a bit...against the raiders...and im a raiders fan where they bastard broncos are concerned...like mannings last superbowl...this is russell wilson who was robbed of at least one superbowl by the clown carrols call..eh um we are on the one yard line...beast steps up...cheers guv ggees ra baw...eh um eh nah well suker bill throw inside to that guy in white..whit says wilson..aye well dupe em...fucking arsehole....
dont know what that all means but it adds up to broncos winning...rthey are 2-1 with a qb who didnt know the playbook..defence running game cracing qb..wide receivers...can run a bit...against the raiders...and im a raiders fan where they bastard broncos are concerned...like mannings last superbowl...this is russell wilson who was robbed of at least one superbowl by the clown carrols call..eh um we are on the one yard line...beast steps up...cheers guv ggees ra baw...eh um eh nah well suker bill throw inside to that guy in white..whit says wilson..aye well dupe em...fucking arsehole....
Many factors favor DEN. I have a query that strongly favors DEN - it is 164-77. That is a HUGE sample size that bolsters the confidence level. It should be noted that it favored MIA and MIA did not cover in what was a "balancing game" for CIN. DEN's DEF is rated much stronger by Football Outsiders - #5 vs. #20.
Fabian Sommer aka Suuma really likes DEN a lot; it is his "Best Bet" on this week's Team Matchbook podcast. His fellow analyst Rob Pizzola picked DEN as his featured "Other Bet." Together with the third analyst Drew Dinsick they are a very impressive 7-2 on their Best Bets this season.
The 164-77 query favoring DEN just looks more reliable than the "balancing game" queries in Comment #1 based on the vastly different sample sizes. However, the BG query is just the sort of situation that might spring a surprise. I won't bet DEN, and if I do take LV it will be on the ML.
Many factors favor DEN. I have a query that strongly favors DEN - it is 164-77. That is a HUGE sample size that bolsters the confidence level. It should be noted that it favored MIA and MIA did not cover in what was a "balancing game" for CIN. DEN's DEF is rated much stronger by Football Outsiders - #5 vs. #20.
Fabian Sommer aka Suuma really likes DEN a lot; it is his "Best Bet" on this week's Team Matchbook podcast. His fellow analyst Rob Pizzola picked DEN as his featured "Other Bet." Together with the third analyst Drew Dinsick they are a very impressive 7-2 on their Best Bets this season.
The 164-77 query favoring DEN just looks more reliable than the "balancing game" queries in Comment #1 based on the vastly different sample sizes. However, the BG query is just the sort of situation that might spring a surprise. I won't bet DEN, and if I do take LV it will be on the ML.
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