What's up Covers Community. I fell into some money this summer and I am considering using a small percentage (25K) to see if I could roll it into a profit during the season. I've been betting on the NFL for roughly 25 years as a small player (100-500 units per play) but have seen good returns more often than not. I am a fairly confident bettor that pays attention to trends but also rolls with instinct.
Obviously this season will be unlike any we've seen previously. Coronavirus and everything that goes with it will have an impact on the season and individual games that we will likely not understand until 2020 is over with. Just looking for tips / advice. And that includes rolling the 25K into investment portfolios and waiting for next year.
What's up Covers Community. I fell into some money this summer and I am considering using a small percentage (25K) to see if I could roll it into a profit during the season. I've been betting on the NFL for roughly 25 years as a small player (100-500 units per play) but have seen good returns more often than not. I am a fairly confident bettor that pays attention to trends but also rolls with instinct.
Obviously this season will be unlike any we've seen previously. Coronavirus and everything that goes with it will have an impact on the season and individual games that we will likely not understand until 2020 is over with. Just looking for tips / advice. And that includes rolling the 25K into investment portfolios and waiting for next year.
Keep in mind there is an 80% chance of a second plandemic this coming November. Bill Gates and his "wife" cackle with glee every time they are asked about it. So we will probably have the season cancelled sometime around then.
Until then, Here's what I would advise:
1) Invest 1% of bankroll per game. Maybe just a tad more, but not more than 330 to win 300 per game.
2) Invest $60 in the following, all available on Amazon:
Marc Lawrence's Playbook Football Preview Guide 2020 edition
Lindy's 2020 Annual
Week One NFL Winners 2020 edition
How to Beat the Pro Football Pointspread by Bobby Smith
3) Begin prepping now so you are ready by September.
4) Make a line on every game and compare it to the betting line. When you have an overlay of 3 or more points, that is a betting opportunity.
5) Bet ONLY when you have an edge, and never bet without one.
6) Don't handicap your handicapping. If your analysis points to ten betting opportunities, bet all ten. Don't whittle them down to fewer games. As long as you have an edge, a game is worth betting.
Keep in mind there is an 80% chance of a second plandemic this coming November. Bill Gates and his "wife" cackle with glee every time they are asked about it. So we will probably have the season cancelled sometime around then.
Until then, Here's what I would advise:
1) Invest 1% of bankroll per game. Maybe just a tad more, but not more than 330 to win 300 per game.
2) Invest $60 in the following, all available on Amazon:
Marc Lawrence's Playbook Football Preview Guide 2020 edition
Lindy's 2020 Annual
Week One NFL Winners 2020 edition
How to Beat the Pro Football Pointspread by Bobby Smith
3) Begin prepping now so you are ready by September.
4) Make a line on every game and compare it to the betting line. When you have an overlay of 3 or more points, that is a betting opportunity.
5) Bet ONLY when you have an edge, and never bet without one.
6) Don't handicap your handicapping. If your analysis points to ten betting opportunities, bet all ten. Don't whittle them down to fewer games. As long as you have an edge, a game is worth betting.
Congratulations!! Keep in mind there is an 80% chance of a second plandemic this coming November. Bill Gates and his "wife" cackle with glee every time they are asked about it. So we will probably have the season cancelled sometime around then. Until then, Here's what I would advise: 1) Invest 1% of bankroll per game. Maybe just a tad more, but not more than 330 to win 300 per game. 2) Invest $60 in the following, all available on Amazon: Marc Lawrence's Playbook Football Preview Guide 2020 edition Lindy's 2020 Annual Week One NFL Winners 2020 edition How to Beat the Pro Football Pointspread by Bobby Smith 3) Begin prepping now so you are ready by September. 4) Make a line on every game and compare it to the betting line. When you have an overlay of 3 or more points, that is a betting opportunity. 5) Bet ONLY when you have an edge, and never bet without one. 6) Don't handicap your handicapping. If your analysis points to ten betting opportunities, bet all ten. Don't whittle them down to fewer games. As long as you have an edge, a game is worth betting.
Thanks Doc.
I have been using Marc Lawrence's Playbook since 2003 or so. I also do a blind score prediction every week before seeing the lines and act when I see something out of place (Tennessee +5.5 at Cleveland was a huge play in week one last season). When I combine trends and score predictions it generally results in a winning week. I also keep it to the five strongest five picks a week, which I do simply to control bank loss but I understand your point about not limiting opportunities when they present themselves. The 1% of bankroll per play advice is appreciated, as are the other industry guides to use - Lindy's and How to Beat the Spread. Hopefully we get through an entire season, and it is a profitable one.
Congratulations!! Keep in mind there is an 80% chance of a second plandemic this coming November. Bill Gates and his "wife" cackle with glee every time they are asked about it. So we will probably have the season cancelled sometime around then. Until then, Here's what I would advise: 1) Invest 1% of bankroll per game. Maybe just a tad more, but not more than 330 to win 300 per game. 2) Invest $60 in the following, all available on Amazon: Marc Lawrence's Playbook Football Preview Guide 2020 edition Lindy's 2020 Annual Week One NFL Winners 2020 edition How to Beat the Pro Football Pointspread by Bobby Smith 3) Begin prepping now so you are ready by September. 4) Make a line on every game and compare it to the betting line. When you have an overlay of 3 or more points, that is a betting opportunity. 5) Bet ONLY when you have an edge, and never bet without one. 6) Don't handicap your handicapping. If your analysis points to ten betting opportunities, bet all ten. Don't whittle them down to fewer games. As long as you have an edge, a game is worth betting.
Thanks Doc.
I have been using Marc Lawrence's Playbook since 2003 or so. I also do a blind score prediction every week before seeing the lines and act when I see something out of place (Tennessee +5.5 at Cleveland was a huge play in week one last season). When I combine trends and score predictions it generally results in a winning week. I also keep it to the five strongest five picks a week, which I do simply to control bank loss but I understand your point about not limiting opportunities when they present themselves. The 1% of bankroll per play advice is appreciated, as are the other industry guides to use - Lindy's and How to Beat the Spread. Hopefully we get through an entire season, and it is a profitable one.
Wait for the in + out covid19 report like so many people will be doing this year till 1.5 hours before game time when the lineups are for sure valid so not be caught off guard. NEVER in NFL betting history will there be such a last hour or so rush of bets before games KO then we will see this year.
Also I say go for it as far as betting goes the opposite of the gentleman above said + I respect his advice too.
Almost every bettor out there wishes he had the lux. of your BACK UP fund if you lose this 25K. I say since you have a nice reserve of money to fall back on if you play it safe like 1% a game and make a few K at the end of the year what have you really gained considering your net worth. Try to turn this 25K into 100k or more something that will make an impact in your new found net worth.
If I had only 25K to start with nothing to fall back on 5% would be my max. bet but if I had the money your talking about......in certain situations it would be more...that's all up to you but with little pressure on you I say be ultra aggressive.
I will never forget an answer old golfer Lee Trevino gave to a reporter in the 70s i read about when he asked Lee did he feel pressure on the 72nd hole of US open...his answer went something like this...Pressure huh no I didn't feel any pressure....pressure is playing for 100 dollars a hole with no money in your pocket like I have done in the past....NOW THATS PRESSURE.
You have little to none of it so go for it + I will keep my eye on your posts this year.....Maybe I can help add to your new net worth cause this year is going to be insanely amazing for me I cannot wait.
Wait for the in + out covid19 report like so many people will be doing this year till 1.5 hours before game time when the lineups are for sure valid so not be caught off guard. NEVER in NFL betting history will there be such a last hour or so rush of bets before games KO then we will see this year.
Also I say go for it as far as betting goes the opposite of the gentleman above said + I respect his advice too.
Almost every bettor out there wishes he had the lux. of your BACK UP fund if you lose this 25K. I say since you have a nice reserve of money to fall back on if you play it safe like 1% a game and make a few K at the end of the year what have you really gained considering your net worth. Try to turn this 25K into 100k or more something that will make an impact in your new found net worth.
If I had only 25K to start with nothing to fall back on 5% would be my max. bet but if I had the money your talking about......in certain situations it would be more...that's all up to you but with little pressure on you I say be ultra aggressive.
I will never forget an answer old golfer Lee Trevino gave to a reporter in the 70s i read about when he asked Lee did he feel pressure on the 72nd hole of US open...his answer went something like this...Pressure huh no I didn't feel any pressure....pressure is playing for 100 dollars a hole with no money in your pocket like I have done in the past....NOW THATS PRESSURE.
You have little to none of it so go for it + I will keep my eye on your posts this year.....Maybe I can help add to your new net worth cause this year is going to be insanely amazing for me I cannot wait.
Wait as long as possible and play conservatively in the beginning until sum sort of weekly structure takes place, kind of like 2 boxers the first couple of rounds. I play that way anyway at the start of every season. Good luck!
"I'm afraid all we may have done is awakened a sleeping giant."
Wait as long as possible and play conservatively in the beginning until sum sort of weekly structure takes place, kind of like 2 boxers the first couple of rounds. I play that way anyway at the start of every season. Good luck!
FWIW, I've been playing a long time myself and I do NFL write-ups right here on Covers, free of charge. Feel free to check out my work, last season 18-5-2, year before 15-5. Documented write-ups. Always here to help!
"I'm afraid all we may have done is awakened a sleeping giant."
FWIW, I've been playing a long time myself and I do NFL write-ups right here on Covers, free of charge. Feel free to check out my work, last season 18-5-2, year before 15-5. Documented write-ups. Always here to help!
Thanks kevin vanlith and mrusso - I appreciate the advice. I will most likely run a season long thread covering my plays and bankroll balance. Good luck to both of you on the season.
kevin vanlith - I have definitely considered going large with very selective plays. Still working out strategy.
Thanks kevin vanlith and mrusso - I appreciate the advice. I will most likely run a season long thread covering my plays and bankroll balance. Good luck to both of you on the season.
kevin vanlith - I have definitely considered going large with very selective plays. Still working out strategy.
Thanks kevin vanlith and mrusso - I appreciate the advice. I will most likely run a season long thread covering my plays and bankroll balance. Good luck to both of you on the season. kevin vanlith - I have definitely considered going large with very selective plays. Still working out strategy.
So this is the most important thing I have learned over the many years I have been doing this, money management. Be consistent with your bets, it's Soo important. You play 3 games, you want to win 2 of those. I can't tell you in years past how many times I won more games than I lost, yet I failed to net money and sometimes even lost money. Not anymore. Maybe 3 or 4 times a year I may tack on a couple bucks on a game I really like, nothing extravagant though, but for the most part, I bet the same. Sometimes that game that looks so good is the one you lose on, IT HAPPENS to everyone, whilst you won your other games. This is the VERY BEST advice you will get, be consistent with your bets, you rarely know which one wins and which one loses. Be checking you out this season, good luck!
"I'm afraid all we may have done is awakened a sleeping giant."
Thanks kevin vanlith and mrusso - I appreciate the advice. I will most likely run a season long thread covering my plays and bankroll balance. Good luck to both of you on the season. kevin vanlith - I have definitely considered going large with very selective plays. Still working out strategy.
So this is the most important thing I have learned over the many years I have been doing this, money management. Be consistent with your bets, it's Soo important. You play 3 games, you want to win 2 of those. I can't tell you in years past how many times I won more games than I lost, yet I failed to net money and sometimes even lost money. Not anymore. Maybe 3 or 4 times a year I may tack on a couple bucks on a game I really like, nothing extravagant though, but for the most part, I bet the same. Sometimes that game that looks so good is the one you lose on, IT HAPPENS to everyone, whilst you won your other games. This is the VERY BEST advice you will get, be consistent with your bets, you rarely know which one wins and which one loses. Be checking you out this season, good luck!
Put me in your Rolodex, you're in mine now come this season, ol' school, teach these young bucks wats up and win a couple of dollars while we're at it.
"I'm afraid all we may have done is awakened a sleeping giant."
Put me in your Rolodex, you're in mine now come this season, ol' school, teach these young bucks wats up and win a couple of dollars while we're at it.
Couple of beers sitting at home with the girlfriend, got one more thing to add. Kinda' for novices or those who haven't quite figured it out. DEMEANOR. I work in sales, one thing you can't do is get too low when you fail to make a sale or too high when you make one. Stay on an even keel. When you get too high or low you make bad decisions. "I lost I gotta get my money back." "I won, I'm ahead I'm going big now!" If you've been doing this any length of time, you know exactly what I'm talking about. It's cliche but true, the season is a marathon, not a Sprint. Don't try and win it all in a couple games! Hope this helps a few of you Degens' out there
"I'm afraid all we may have done is awakened a sleeping giant."
Couple of beers sitting at home with the girlfriend, got one more thing to add. Kinda' for novices or those who haven't quite figured it out. DEMEANOR. I work in sales, one thing you can't do is get too low when you fail to make a sale or too high when you make one. Stay on an even keel. When you get too high or low you make bad decisions. "I lost I gotta get my money back." "I won, I'm ahead I'm going big now!" If you've been doing this any length of time, you know exactly what I'm talking about. It's cliche but true, the season is a marathon, not a Sprint. Don't try and win it all in a couple games! Hope this helps a few of you Degens' out there
Couple of beers sitting at home with the girlfriend, got one more thing to add. Kinda' for novices or those who haven't quite figured it out. DEMEANOR. I work in sales, one thing you can't do is get too low when you fail to make a sale or too high when you make one. Stay on an even keel. When you get too high or low you make bad decisions. "I lost I gotta get my money back." "I won, I'm ahead I'm going big now!" If you've been doing this any length of time, you know exactly what I'm talking about. It's cliche but true, the season is a marathon, not a Sprint. Don't try and win it all in a couple games! Hope this helps a few of you Degens' out there
Couple of beers sitting at home with the girlfriend, got one more thing to add. Kinda' for novices or those who haven't quite figured it out. DEMEANOR. I work in sales, one thing you can't do is get too low when you fail to make a sale or too high when you make one. Stay on an even keel. When you get too high or low you make bad decisions. "I lost I gotta get my money back." "I won, I'm ahead I'm going big now!" If you've been doing this any length of time, you know exactly what I'm talking about. It's cliche but true, the season is a marathon, not a Sprint. Don't try and win it all in a couple games! Hope this helps a few of you Degens' out there
Heres the best tip you will get on here put it on the Ravens at +800 SB and +400 AFC. Already unloaded and definitely will winning big. Keep this thread you will see that im right. Cruise to playoffs and when they get their it will be 100 percent all about buisiness
ravens are my pick as well. they are getting all the hype, and its turning into a make or break season. if nfl 2020 holds up then this has a great shot imo.
Heres the best tip you will get on here put it on the Ravens at +800 SB and +400 AFC. Already unloaded and definitely will winning big. Keep this thread you will see that im right. Cruise to playoffs and when they get their it will be 100 percent all about buisiness
ravens are my pick as well. they are getting all the hype, and its turning into a make or break season. if nfl 2020 holds up then this has a great shot imo.
Hey buddy, i honestly think you would be better off diversifying eg: 30% Gold, 15% Bitcoin, 20% ETF's, 10% Real Estate, 10% Netflix, 15% Gambling. Will still leave you with 3750 for the NFL season which is more than enough to grow your bankroll over time. But the other investments are guaranteed to make you money so if you have a bad season your other streams of income will balance that out and most importantly show a profit long term.
Hey buddy, i honestly think you would be better off diversifying eg: 30% Gold, 15% Bitcoin, 20% ETF's, 10% Real Estate, 10% Netflix, 15% Gambling. Will still leave you with 3750 for the NFL season which is more than enough to grow your bankroll over time. But the other investments are guaranteed to make you money so if you have a bad season your other streams of income will balance that out and most importantly show a profit long term.
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