I grabbed MIA at +413 to win the division. Yes, they have a tough road to get past BUF. But I think there's plenty of value in these odds.
Looking at their schedule, their last 2 games are against NE and NYJ, so if they are hanging around come early January, they've got a shot. But more importantly, their schedule against non-division opponents doesn't look too bad, with games against PIT, DET, CHI, CLE, HOU.
So let's say they go .500 in their division - that gives them 3 wins.
Let's say they go 4-1 against these crappy non-division opponents - 4 wins.
And if they go .500 against the remaining decent opponents (BAL, CIN, GB, MIN, SF and LAC) - 3 wins.
So that puts them at 10-7. Will that be enough to win the AFC East? Possibly, but admittedly not likely. But if MIA can find a way to turn one of those losses into a win, and go 11-6, they should be right in the thick of it.
BUF seems to have a slightly tougher non-division schedule, facing decent teams like LAR, TEN, BAL, KC, GB, MIN and CIN. However, they get a bye week before facing GB at home, and on their short week, they face CLE followed by DET 4 days later. MIA doesn't fare as well on their short week, facing BUF and then CIN 4 days later. But, MIA has their short week early in the season (week 3 and 4), while BUF has their short week over Thanksgiving.
I put MIA's chances of winning the AFC East at 1 in 3, which means there's enough value in these odds to justify a wager.