I can across this some time ago and thought it was interesting for those that are interested in this sort of thing:
The 2018 NFL Draft was supposed to change the landscape of the NFL at the quarterback position. Maybe not right away, of course, but in a few years — say, 2021? — the five quarterbacks selected in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft would be the stars of the day. Instead, Josh Rosenflamed out immediately, Sam Darnoldproved to be underwhelming under three different coaches, and Baker Mayfield’sstock fell dramatically in his fourth year. Even Lamar Jackson, the 2019 AP MVP, has fallen off; after a notable dropoff in play from 2019 to 2020, he fell further in an injury-plagued 2021. At this point, only Josh Allenis an unimpeachable franchise quarterback, but even he has seen a significant decline in passing efficiency this season.
All told, the 2018 first round quarterbacks as a group have been decidedly below averageas passers this season, with three of the four starters (excluding Rosen) being in the bottomfive of the NFL in interception rate.
This made me curious: which draft classes have been the most productive in 2021? With 17 weeks in the books — a traditional NFL regular season — here’s what I did.
I can across this some time ago and thought it was interesting for those that are interested in this sort of thing:
The 2018 NFL Draft was supposed to change the landscape of the NFL at the quarterback position. Maybe not right away, of course, but in a few years — say, 2021? — the five quarterbacks selected in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft would be the stars of the day. Instead, Josh Rosenflamed out immediately, Sam Darnoldproved to be underwhelming under three different coaches, and Baker Mayfield’sstock fell dramatically in his fourth year. Even Lamar Jackson, the 2019 AP MVP, has fallen off; after a notable dropoff in play from 2019 to 2020, he fell further in an injury-plagued 2021. At this point, only Josh Allenis an unimpeachable franchise quarterback, but even he has seen a significant decline in passing efficiency this season.
All told, the 2018 first round quarterbacks as a group have been decidedly below averageas passers this season, with three of the four starters (excluding Rosen) being in the bottomfive of the NFL in interception rate.
This made me curious: which draft classes have been the most productive in 2021? With 17 weeks in the books — a traditional NFL regular season — here’s what I did.
Calculate each quarterback’s ANY/A average this season. ANY/A is calculated as follows: (Passing Yards + 20 * Passing TDs – 45 * INTs – Sack Yards Lost) / (Pass Attempts + Sacks).
The NFL average among quarterbacks in 2021 is 6.07 ANY/A. For each quarterback, calculate how much passing value he provided by taking his ANY/A, subtract 6.07 from that number, and multiplying it by his number of dropbacks. For Aaron Rodgers, for example, he is averaging 7.99 ANY/A on 540 dropbacks; as a result, he has provided 1,040 yards of value this season relative to league average, the most in the NFL. Trevor Lawrencehas averaged 4.36 ANY/A on 601 dropbacks; he therefore has provided -1,026 yards of value this year relative to average, the worst in the NFL.
For each draft class, sum the grades for each quarterback in that draft class determined in Step #2 to come up with a Draft Class grade. The 2014 Draft Class has just four quarterbacks left: Jimmy Garoppolo(+609 of value added), Derek Carr(+380), Teddy Bridgewater(+113), and Garrett Gilbert(-26 in one start for Washington). So the 2014 Class gets a grade of +1,076. Believe it or not, that’s actually the second most productive draft class in 2021.
The chart below shows the 2021 passing value added over average by each draft class. The 2020 Draft, powered by Joe Burrowand Justin Herbert, lead the way. And not only is the much-hyped 2018 Class below average, it’s remarkably below-average; only this year’s poor crop of rookies is worse. In fairness to the 2018 Class, they did provide a significant amount of rushing value added: Allen and Jackson both have at least 700 rushing yards, and Darnold has five rushing touchdowns. But from a passing standpoint, it’s fair to say that Mayfield and Darnold significantly disappointed this year, while Allen and Jackson both suffered notable declines in efficiency. And the less said about Rosen, the better.
Calculate each quarterback’s ANY/A average this season. ANY/A is calculated as follows: (Passing Yards + 20 * Passing TDs – 45 * INTs – Sack Yards Lost) / (Pass Attempts + Sacks).
The NFL average among quarterbacks in 2021 is 6.07 ANY/A. For each quarterback, calculate how much passing value he provided by taking his ANY/A, subtract 6.07 from that number, and multiplying it by his number of dropbacks. For Aaron Rodgers, for example, he is averaging 7.99 ANY/A on 540 dropbacks; as a result, he has provided 1,040 yards of value this season relative to league average, the most in the NFL. Trevor Lawrencehas averaged 4.36 ANY/A on 601 dropbacks; he therefore has provided -1,026 yards of value this year relative to average, the worst in the NFL.
For each draft class, sum the grades for each quarterback in that draft class determined in Step #2 to come up with a Draft Class grade. The 2014 Draft Class has just four quarterbacks left: Jimmy Garoppolo(+609 of value added), Derek Carr(+380), Teddy Bridgewater(+113), and Garrett Gilbert(-26 in one start for Washington). So the 2014 Class gets a grade of +1,076. Believe it or not, that’s actually the second most productive draft class in 2021.
The chart below shows the 2021 passing value added over average by each draft class. The 2020 Draft, powered by Joe Burrowand Justin Herbert, lead the way. And not only is the much-hyped 2018 Class below average, it’s remarkably below-average; only this year’s poor crop of rookies is worse. In fairness to the 2018 Class, they did provide a significant amount of rushing value added: Allen and Jackson both have at least 700 rushing yards, and Darnold has five rushing touchdowns. But from a passing standpoint, it’s fair to say that Mayfield and Darnold significantly disappointed this year, while Allen and Jackson both suffered notable declines in efficiency. And the less said about Rosen, the better.
We can also perform the exact same analysis using age (as of December 31, 2021) instead of draft class. Here, it’s the 33-year-olds — Matthew Stafford, Kirk Cousins, and Russell Wilson— that stand out as the top bracket. And it probably feels weird to group them together in your head, but Josh Allenand Joe Burrow were both born in 1996, as was Gardner Minshew. The 25-year-olds narrowly best the “38-year-olds” (aka the Aaron Rodgers group) in this chart. It’s interesting to look at similar data in different ways; whereas the 2020 Draft Class was the top provider of value, by grouping players by age, we separate Burrow and Herbert. And now the 23-year-olds, which is headlined by Herbert but includes a bunch of below-average passers, checks in as below average.
We can also perform the exact same analysis using age (as of December 31, 2021) instead of draft class. Here, it’s the 33-year-olds — Matthew Stafford, Kirk Cousins, and Russell Wilson— that stand out as the top bracket. And it probably feels weird to group them together in your head, but Josh Allenand Joe Burrow were both born in 1996, as was Gardner Minshew. The 25-year-olds narrowly best the “38-year-olds” (aka the Aaron Rodgers group) in this chart. It’s interesting to look at similar data in different ways; whereas the 2020 Draft Class was the top provider of value, by grouping players by age, we separate Burrow and Herbert. And now the 23-year-olds, which is headlined by Herbert but includes a bunch of below-average passers, checks in as below average.
Again, I just thought it was kind of interesting. Does not even mean that much taken by itself. I just thought it was interesting how sometimes things don’t pan out exactly how we thought they would.
Again, I just thought it was kind of interesting. Does not even mean that much taken by itself. I just thought it was interesting how sometimes things don’t pan out exactly how we thought they would.
I was pretty on the money on that QB class. I had rooted for Josh Allen from day one in Laramie. I said, "Nothing good ever comes out of Firebaugh. Few good things come out of the valley as a hole. I'm rooting for this kid. I had seem him play three or four times in person, including twice in Laramie and said he was the best QB in the draft. When Buffalo got him, I told Dubs that they had a good one on their hands. I follow western teams. Pac-10/12. Mountain West. I've been to multiple games at every school in those two conferences. I saw watched just about every game of Sam Darnold's career, including of few of his in person as well. And I kept saying, "I just don't get it. What are the 'experts' seeing that I am not, because I have watched all of the games and I am not impressed." Had Baker pegged pretty well, etc. My one whiff, and it was a huge whiff, I was so damn high on Josh Rosen. When you account for how high I was on Rosen, it negates how right I was about Josh Allen, Darnold, etc. Again, he was a PAC-12 QB. I saw most of his games including a few in person. And I was sold.
I was pretty on the money on that QB class. I had rooted for Josh Allen from day one in Laramie. I said, "Nothing good ever comes out of Firebaugh. Few good things come out of the valley as a hole. I'm rooting for this kid. I had seem him play three or four times in person, including twice in Laramie and said he was the best QB in the draft. When Buffalo got him, I told Dubs that they had a good one on their hands. I follow western teams. Pac-10/12. Mountain West. I've been to multiple games at every school in those two conferences. I saw watched just about every game of Sam Darnold's career, including of few of his in person as well. And I kept saying, "I just don't get it. What are the 'experts' seeing that I am not, because I have watched all of the games and I am not impressed." Had Baker pegged pretty well, etc. My one whiff, and it was a huge whiff, I was so damn high on Josh Rosen. When you account for how high I was on Rosen, it negates how right I was about Josh Allen, Darnold, etc. Again, he was a PAC-12 QB. I saw most of his games including a few in person. And I was sold.
So far, a lot of guys would rank 2017 (Trubisky, Mahomes, Watson, Peterman, Beathard) and 2018 (Mayfield, Darnold, Allen, Rosen, Jackson, Rudolph) as better than 2020 (Burrow, Tagovailoa, Herbert, Love, Hurts, Fromm)
But if they do it a little longer -- you might be correct.
So far, a lot of guys would rank 2017 (Trubisky, Mahomes, Watson, Peterman, Beathard) and 2018 (Mayfield, Darnold, Allen, Rosen, Jackson, Rudolph) as better than 2020 (Burrow, Tagovailoa, Herbert, Love, Hurts, Fromm)
But if they do it a little longer -- you might be correct.
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