WC finals Game 5 Wednesday

OKC -8(-115) 5x

OKC -17.5 (+288)1u alt line

Very difficult going against the trend tonight. Timberwolves had their chance to make their statement last game whom won ATS and L SU. 

OKC will rain 3ball tonight for the horse lovers out there...OKC's turn to make a statement tonight. 

OKC +9.1 offensively at home vs the road and defense as solid as can be #1 through out the playoffs.  No question OKC dominates tonight, while Minny figures out their starting line-up this offseason for next year. Changes will be made to compete with OKC next year. Finch may be done. I can't see hot potato rebounding Gobert helping the cause for next season...3 more years with a one dimentional player. Gonna get off my coach soap box and focus on OKC tonight dominating...

Lets keep rolling. 
BOL

Good luck Tweets.  

Raw home/road scoring differential not the only trend at play here. OKC 1-5 ATS this postseason with a series lead.

Noting also that this Minn. team has no quit in them, especially when they're written off. Think back to the 2023 playoffs, when, in gm. 5  down 3-1 on the road, they took the soon to be champs Denver Nuggets down to the wire as a 10 pt. dog. And 2024, in gm. 7 WCSF on the road, they came back from a 20 pt. deficit to beat those same Nuggets.

Buying low with Minn. here. We shall see.

GL 

Thank you for the feedback, I am aware of the stats after series lead, however, a 3-1 series lead is no mans land for OKC. My angle is that the emotion involving a close out game versus a series lead is a bit different. OKC suffocating defense is what I am counting on tonight. Remember, I was on the Timberwolves last game and they covered at home. Minny scores 102.1 average on the road all playoffs, but a staggering 118.1 at home. Only scoring 95.5 on the road vs OKC. 

Now if this was a bit more even or a 3-5 points average difference between home and away I would consider the Minny cover tonight. However, this team is affected by an away venue versus home and the stats show that through out the post season.  OKC suffocating defense versuses a zig zag theory or let down here takes precedence IMO. In the playoffs, teams up 3-1 have covered ATS 2-1 in game 5s with Boston taking it another game to lose 4-2. Teams up 3-1 series lead are 60.4 percent close outs series in game 5s histoically in the playoffs. Didn't look into ATS. 

Either way best wishes tonight. 

BOL looks like a win!

@tweets50

The ATS leaguewide record of teams up 3-1 would be more interesting than the SU record. Nonetheless, team specific trends take precedence over leaguewise trends. Another handicapper on the forum aptly pointed out that OKC is 0-2 ATS in their first closeout opportunities this year; both games were on the road, though.

I was waiting for a +9. However the line moved the other way, which means 2 things: 1. I'd be getting less value; and 2. The line movement didn't reflect the contrarian sentiment indicator I was looking for, and also mitigated the "everybody writing the Wolves off" angle. May end up passing the game. 

@Stew Baker

 Yes no man's land. OKC is at home which is statistically a strength.

Good feedback and questions

keep rollin rollin rollin rollin like limp bizkit? 

Ya bro..

Congrats OKC backers no matter what the spread.. and Under(Whew, like D. Green was yelling from the stands 219 and they quit scoring..lol) backers..

just picking stuff apart RN,  LFG

@tweets50

 Indy Tomorrow ?

Nice hit on the alternate line. I expected a blowout. But I wasn’t betting on one after the game 4. Let’s go Indiana 

OKC -17.5 (+288)1u alt line

impressive 

Nice hit on the alternate line, your explanation was spot on so that guy saying something about OKC being 1-5 ats was not even a factor lol.

Were you getting a fair price on the alt. line which was 9 points or so off the reg. line? I saw BM had -12.5 +166. I'm usually pretty good with this stuff, and at -17.5 +288 it doesn't seem you were justly compensated for giving up 5 extra points. One could argue that the line should be cheated some b/c of the increased likelihood of a OKC blowout compared with a typical 8.5 pt game, but that argument doesn't hold water because the numbers aren't, by my numbers, even close. Of course, it did work out for you because it hit at the bigger price but still. What was the price for Minn. +17.5, if that was available? Who offers alt. lines 9 or pts. off the reg. line anyway? Thoughts?

And while we're on that type of subject,, where's a book that offers action points when you need it? Know of any?

So you can't get many of these alternate lines anywhere alse but Draftkings, fanduel, Bet365 or maybe MGM/Caesars.(I don't have access to these online here in the Northwest). At this point, the bulk of the wager was on OKC side, so cheated on 5 points was not my focal point. Shopping for a -17.5 line will never be my intention. However based on what I thought was going to happen did. SO I could have been out another K on top of my wager. 

I got this on line on draftKings. Go to alternate lines in the game menu. I could have went up to 29.5 at the time. You don't get much more "value" going further up after a certain number because books have this shit figured out....BTW I hate draftkings so do your best with bookmaker or local. Bookmaker pays you same day within the hour crypto. I have had NO problems. I took Knicks -9.5 +188 for 1/2x as a high risk high reward wager of the day today. I use draftkings for these type of bets, not that often.