Atlanta Hawks +4.5
Mathematically projected score: Magic 88 Hawks 90
The public is pushing this line way up. Likely many of the same people that took the Hawks last night are fading them tonight, which is always a terrible strategy, you cannot revenge bet and expect to win in the long run. My reasoning for taking the Hawks is simple, they are a competitive team that is catching 4.5 points AT HOME. Irrationaliy is running rampant among the public because they are weighing last night’s loss along with Joe Johnson’s injury in a scenario where odds makers are 2 steps ahead. Pure irrationality, which equals a payday for the wise.
Studies have shown that home teams are 2.05% more likely to cover the spread, and favorites are 1.86% less likely to cover the spread:
["We find that there is evidence, both in the total data and in Logan sample, for favorites being overpriced relative to the line. In the total data, favorites are 1.86 percent less likely to beat the line. Home teams are 2.05 percent more likely to beat the line, which suggests that home teams are underpriced and that favorites are overpriced relative to the line."] (Sinkey and Logan 2009)
So by taking home dogs alone, you are putting yourself at around a 3.91% advantage in the long term. That alone can boost you over the 52.4% “break even” point in sports betting.
This line should keep improving, I will update via twitter when I end-up taking it.
Denver Nuggets +3.5
Mathematically projected score: Spurs 101 Nuggets 104
Once again, we have a home dog that happens to be a competitive team with a string of injuries. In actuality, the Spurs injuries to Splitter and Ginobilli are more significant than the Nuggets injuries. This is because the Gallanari injury is now dated to the point where books have it dead-on, so we don’t have to account for it anymore, and Nene (+1.3) + Lawson (+4.5) < Ginobilli (+14.9) + Splitter (+4.2). That is raw (+/-) analysis, I process it at a 1:3 ratio so Nene’s absence= 1.3/3= (.43) Lawson= 4.5/3= (1.5). I have to shade Ginobilli’s absence because he just recently returned at half capacity so his base gets cut in half and then processed: Ginobilli= 14.9/2= 7.45/3= (2.48) and Splitter= 4.2/3= (1.4)
So the Nuggets injury disadvantage is a bit of an illusion right now, it would be a different story if they didn’t have Andre Miller, a long-time starter in the NBA and who could be starting regularly for a lot of teams in the NBA. Add that to the fact that the Spurs are on the last game of their yearly “circus road trip” that has been very successful AND All-Star break starts after the game. I could see this aging Spurs roster starting break a little early.
I am going to wait on this line, as well, will update via twitter.
Speaking of twitter, my following is growing so I now consider is feasible to post halftime hedges for our plays. Hedging should be in every bettors arsenal, but I don’t think that is the case. For those of you that aren’t familiar, I’ll explain last night’s hedge in the UTA/MIN game. Utah was up 12 at half and the line at half was MIN -6.5, the hedge offered us Minnesota +5.5 to accompany our Utah +5 bet, giving us a 10.5 window to hit the middle and win both wagers. This was an absolute no-brainer, I take any middle of 6 or more points. Hedges equal half the value of my original bet (0.5-unit) so I cut my risk in half and try to hit the middle to increase my original wager value by a half unit. Hedging is selling-off risk in return for an opportunity to hit the middle, a +EV deal.
I was going to release last night’s hedge via twitter, but I figured I should address the hedging scheme before I acted on it because my people would simply think I was bailing on the Utah bet without good reason.