The Jazz are a formidable team this season but the market has yet to realize it. Other sharp handicappers agree, as evidenced by the opening line of +4 1/2 being bet down to +2 1/2 at most sportsbooks, despite a meager 36% of the public betting them. Things I like about Utah tonight are Phoenix doesn't play much D. I'm projecting Utah to outrebound the Suns by double digits, they should get to the line more than Phoneix (where they're extremely efficient at 87% this season). I like that Utah beat the Suns earlier this season despite losing the turnover battle by five. The Jazz also play a tad better defense. We probably won't need them, but I'm laying an extra three points because we missed out on the line move and Phoneix usually plays well versus Utah. I don't put much weight into trends, but the Suns have beaten Utah nine out of the last ten times, so I kinda like having some extra points. Lastly, I'm hoping to get a little ding from Suns players who might have other things on their mind such as their families and going to Halloween parties after the game. I'd never bet a game based on such thinking, but it surely doesn't hurt!
Good Luck!
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Record: 6-0
Jazz +5 1/2 (3 point buy -160)
The Jazz are a formidable team this season but the market has yet to realize it. Other sharp handicappers agree, as evidenced by the opening line of +4 1/2 being bet down to +2 1/2 at most sportsbooks, despite a meager 36% of the public betting them. Things I like about Utah tonight are Phoenix doesn't play much D. I'm projecting Utah to outrebound the Suns by double digits, they should get to the line more than Phoneix (where they're extremely efficient at 87% this season). I like that Utah beat the Suns earlier this season despite losing the turnover battle by five. The Jazz also play a tad better defense. We probably won't need them, but I'm laying an extra three points because we missed out on the line move and Phoneix usually plays well versus Utah. I don't put much weight into trends, but the Suns have beaten Utah nine out of the last ten times, so I kinda like having some extra points. Lastly, I'm hoping to get a little ding from Suns players who might have other things on their mind such as their families and going to Halloween parties after the game. I'd never bet a game based on such thinking, but it surely doesn't hurt!
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