Blowout game in my opinion. 120s/130s-100s. If the Pacers didn't start game 1 slow and turnover crazy, the over would've probably hit as the pace and shot making was there in the second half. I think this game will be like that second half. No I don't see pacers shooting 47% again, especially Toppin lol. But then again I don't see them committing 24 turnovers again so they should get more than 82 shots. Lower percentage on more shots could equal same amount of points. The game would have been long over if the Thunder were able to capitalize on all them turnovers. 11 points on 24 turnovers lost them the game really. 4th best in the league in 3rd quarter scoring. Good luck everyone
It's all probabilities
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Sonics 3rd Quarter -2
Sonics -11
Game > 228
Blowout game in my opinion. 120s/130s-100s. If the Pacers didn't start game 1 slow and turnover crazy, the over would've probably hit as the pace and shot making was there in the second half. I think this game will be like that second half. No I don't see pacers shooting 47% again, especially Toppin lol. But then again I don't see them committing 24 turnovers again so they should get more than 82 shots. Lower percentage on more shots could equal same amount of points. The game would have been long over if the Thunder were able to capitalize on all them turnovers. 11 points on 24 turnovers lost them the game really. 4th best in the league in 3rd quarter scoring. Good luck everyone
OKC at home scores 4.1 pts more than their opponent in the third qtr., on average. Of course, the 4.1 number is an average compiled from what they did against all the teams, so OKC in the 3rd qtr at home should score 4.1 more points than some mythical "statistically average" team. Indiana's 3rd qtr road scoring differential, however is 0.3 pts. better than the average, so OKC in the 3rd qtr. at home should be expected to beat Indiana by (4.1 - 0.3 = )3.8 points. And you're laying 2pts. That's a 1.8 pt, edge, and with a point in an NBA qtr. being worth about 25 cents, you're edge, assuming you were laying no juice at all (likewise not taking any juice either), would be (1.8 pts.X 25 cents per point =) 45 cents. I'm guessing you laid 15 cents on the -2 though, (if not, all the more more power to you), and at that price you'd have a 30 cent edge (145 - 115). Percentagewise, that works out to a 12% edge. That's respectable.
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@SPark1
OKC at home scores 4.1 pts more than their opponent in the third qtr., on average. Of course, the 4.1 number is an average compiled from what they did against all the teams, so OKC in the 3rd qtr at home should score 4.1 more points than some mythical "statistically average" team. Indiana's 3rd qtr road scoring differential, however is 0.3 pts. better than the average, so OKC in the 3rd qtr. at home should be expected to beat Indiana by (4.1 - 0.3 = )3.8 points. And you're laying 2pts. That's a 1.8 pt, edge, and with a point in an NBA qtr. being worth about 25 cents, you're edge, assuming you were laying no juice at all (likewise not taking any juice either), would be (1.8 pts.X 25 cents per point =) 45 cents. I'm guessing you laid 15 cents on the -2 though, (if not, all the more more power to you), and at that price you'd have a 30 cent edge (145 - 115). Percentagewise, that works out to a 12% edge. That's respectable.
That was actually done at 3 am. This is more of an "A" level presentation.
OKC at home scores 4.1 pts more than their opponent in the third qtr., on average. Of course, the 4.1 number is an average compiled from what they did against all the teams, so OKC in the 3rd qtr at home should score 4.1 more points than some mythical "statistically average" team. Indiana's 3rd qtr road scoring differential, however is 0.3 pts. better than the average, so OKC in the 3rd qtr. at home, if season long 3rd qtr. numbers are good to base tomorrow's 3rd qtr. prediction on, should be expected to beat Indiana by (4.1 - 0.3 = )3.8 points. And you're laying 2pts. That's a 1.8 pt. edge, and with a point in an NBA qtr. being worth about 25 cents, your edge, assuming you were laying no juice at all (likewise not taking any juice either), would be (1.8 pts. X 25 cents per point =) 45 cents. As far as the win % in this situation goes, a team with a 45 cent edge like this, out of 245 trials, will, out of 245 trials, be expected to win 145 against 100 losses, for a 145/245 win rate, or a 59.2 win%.
I'm guessing you laid 15 cents on the -2 though, (if not, all the more more power to you), so at that price you'd have about a 30 cent edge (145 - 115), although the correct calculation would be 145/115 = 1.26, or a 26 cent edge.
So what's the percentage edge with a 26 cent edge like this, like when you're laying -115 and have a 59.2 win %? We look at 100 trials, where you risk 1 unit per trial, and are expected to win 59.2 trials and lose 40.8. That 59.2 wins, which, at .87 units won per unit risked (1.0 units risked at -115 is a a .87 unit win), gives you 51.5 units won, versus the 40.8 units lost over the 100 trials. That's a 10.7 unit net win over 100 trials, which gives you a 10.7% edge. Compare this with the bookie's edge of 4.54% when the action is split 50/50 and they're collecting 110 for every 100 they pay out. A 10.7% edge is certainly respectable.
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Quote Originally Posted by SPark1:
@Stew Baker Nice breakdown Stew. Next level work
That was actually done at 3 am. This is more of an "A" level presentation.
OKC at home scores 4.1 pts more than their opponent in the third qtr., on average. Of course, the 4.1 number is an average compiled from what they did against all the teams, so OKC in the 3rd qtr at home should score 4.1 more points than some mythical "statistically average" team. Indiana's 3rd qtr road scoring differential, however is 0.3 pts. better than the average, so OKC in the 3rd qtr. at home, if season long 3rd qtr. numbers are good to base tomorrow's 3rd qtr. prediction on, should be expected to beat Indiana by (4.1 - 0.3 = )3.8 points. And you're laying 2pts. That's a 1.8 pt. edge, and with a point in an NBA qtr. being worth about 25 cents, your edge, assuming you were laying no juice at all (likewise not taking any juice either), would be (1.8 pts. X 25 cents per point =) 45 cents. As far as the win % in this situation goes, a team with a 45 cent edge like this, out of 245 trials, will, out of 245 trials, be expected to win 145 against 100 losses, for a 145/245 win rate, or a 59.2 win%.
I'm guessing you laid 15 cents on the -2 though, (if not, all the more more power to you), so at that price you'd have about a 30 cent edge (145 - 115), although the correct calculation would be 145/115 = 1.26, or a 26 cent edge.
So what's the percentage edge with a 26 cent edge like this, like when you're laying -115 and have a 59.2 win %? We look at 100 trials, where you risk 1 unit per trial, and are expected to win 59.2 trials and lose 40.8. That 59.2 wins, which, at .87 units won per unit risked (1.0 units risked at -115 is a a .87 unit win), gives you 51.5 units won, versus the 40.8 units lost over the 100 trials. That's a 10.7 unit net win over 100 trials, which gives you a 10.7% edge. Compare this with the bookie's edge of 4.54% when the action is split 50/50 and they're collecting 110 for every 100 they pay out. A 10.7% edge is certainly respectable.
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GLTA maybe Sonic TT Over 120.5
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