Split the points yesterday with Duren just sneaking over the line and Williams Jr just falling short. For the most part I've been keeping it to one or two bets a day this season, but quite a few tickling my fancy today.
Hornets @ Hawks - Onyeka Okongwu over 18.5 points
Okongwu has been balling of late, and will today slot back into the starting lineup with Porzingis set to miss, something which has generally bade pretty well for him in recent times. Okongwu is in a five-game stretch during which he has scored 21+ points four times, and is averaging just over 23 per game. In two of those games, Porzingis has played and Okongwu has spent just 25 and 21 minutes on the court (though still scoring 21 and 15 points in those games). In the three in which Porzingis hasn't played, Okongwu has played 34+ minutes every time and scored 21, 27 and 32. Granted he has been shooting the lights out from long range which I don't typically like to rely on, but he does score plenty inside the arc anyway and is stroking it with confidence from deep, so he's a good chance to hit at least a couple again today.
Hornets @ Hawks - Kon Knueppel over 19.5 points
The Hornets look to have uncovered a very good one in Kon Knueppel, who in his first couple of months in the league is averaging nearly 20 points, 6 boards and 3 dimes. And the more time he spends on an NBA floor, the more confident he is getting. The rookie has scored at least 24 points in four of his last five games, and while he's shooting it very well from deep, he's proven that he's got a lot more to his game than just a good stroke from beyond the arc. Already the over would be looking nice here given his electric form, but making matters even better for us is that Lamelo Ball is set to miss, so expect plenty of offense from both Knueppel and Miles Bridges.
Magic @ Celtics - Anfernee Simons over 3 assists
My bookies are torn between 2.5 and 3.5 as a line here, with some offering up to $1.75 for over 2.5 and others offering up to $2.40 for over 3.5. I've had a little dabble at both so I'm setting the line here at 3, which is about where he would be even money. Simons doesn't appear to have been all that engaged in his first couple of months with the Celts, but he's started to find a bit of rhythm of late and I'm hoping to capitalize on a low line before it shifts. Over the past couple of seasons, Simons has averaged 4.8 and 5.5 assists per game, and while that was in a larger role for the Blazers, he should still be looking at around 4 per game if he plays the 25 or so minutes Joe Mazzulla seems to have him pegged for. Over the past five games, he has begun to put up better numbers, dishing out 5, 7, 2, 5 and 4 assists in that time - clearing this line four out of five times and averaging closer to 5 per night. His minutes are still a little variable depending on his output, but more often than not he's playing 25 minutes or so, which should be enough to clear this line more often than not.
Clippers @ Cavaliers - Jaylon Tyson over 5 rebounds
Same as with Simons, some of my bookies have this juiced at 4.5 and some have it + money at 5.5 so I'm putting it in the middle. This is basically a minutes-based bet - while both Garland and Mitchell are playing tonight, each of Merrill, Ball and Porter are out, as is Jarrett Allen, so Tyson should be getting 30+ minutes tonight. In his last three games, Tyson has snared 8, 9 and 7 dimes in 26-31 minutes, and with potentially more like 35 tonight he should have ample opportunity to grab this number of rebounds. Though he's had minimal experience at the NBA level, Tyson was a decent rebounder in college, averaging close to 7 per game in 30 or so minutes in his final year, and I always figure that is much more translatable to the NBA for young players than scoring/passing.
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