Fish's Slippery Player Picks - 11/10 (YTD 22-1-11)

Managed to split our three bets 1-1-1 yesterday, with Adams missing by half a rebound, Claxton getting to his number halfway through the third quarter then not playing another minute, and da Silva clearing his line comfortably. Not quite getting the breaks at the minute but we were probably on the fun side of the luck spectrum through the first couple of weeks so what can ya do. Couple for today.

Cavaliers @ Heat - Jaime Jaquez Jr over 4.5 assists

As someone who bets almost exclusively overs on props, I love this game. The two fastest-paced teams in the league and a line of nearly 250 suggests there will be plenty of stats put up, and Jaime Jaquez Jr is one guy who the probable lightning speed of the game will suit to a tee. I've watched the Heat a bit so far this season and he epitomises their new-look game style as much as anyone, getting the ball and making a beeline for the rim at any opportunity. He's been alternating between big scoring games and solid assists games so far and I've managed to pick the wrong side a couple of times, but when he missed out on the assist line I bet a few games ago, I watched the game and I would estimate he had around 10 potential assists for 2 actual assists - his teammates were just missing the shots he gave them. In his two games since then, Jaquez Jr has had 9 and 7 dimes. He will be looking to get downhill regularly in this game, but with the Cavs' length inside I don't expect him to be able to get an open lane to the bucket as much as he'd like. He'll no doubt be trying though, and I expect the presence of Allen and Mobley to force him into plenty of drop-offs and kick-outs which should yield plenty of assist opportunities. 

Spurs @ Bulls - Stephon Castle over 6.5 assists

Castle has shown dramatic improvement in his second season after taking out the ROTY last year, and his passing has been probably the most notable aspect of that improvement, particularly of late. He's up to 7.3 per game this season, but more importantly he's made an enormous 27 of them in his past two games. I had a look at this line last game but with the return of De'Aaron Fox, opted against it, only for Castle to just about pass the line in the first quarter. Clearly Fox's presence will have a detrimental impact on Castle's assist potential, but based on the way Fox's return played out, his backcourt protege will still have plenty of ball-handling responsibilities. With the Bulls' defense not particularly threatening on the inside, there should be plenty of lob opportunities to Wembanyama - assuming he can remember that he's just about 8-foot tall and stops taking possession of the ball 30-feet out - and Castle will likely be responsible for plenty of them. 

Back on the winners' list at last with a couple of easy ones, and one more for the day.

Hawks @ Clippers - Dyson Daniels over 5.5 assists

After a slow start to the season, my fellow Australian is working his way into things, benefiting from a couple of notable absentees from the Hawks' backcourt. With Trae Young out he's obviously had to shoulder a bigger ball-handling load, and with Nickeil Alexander-Walker now out for his second straight game that will be even more true tonight. Even with Alexander-Walker in the line-up he'd been passing this more often than not, albeit not by that much, picking up 6 or more dimes in 4 of his last 5 games prior to last game. Then, with Alexander-Walker joining Young on the sidelines last game, Daniels racked up a huge 13 of them. He's now had 8 and 13 in his last two games and 6+ in five of his last six, and with the Hawks stretched thin in the backcourt he should get plenty of opportunities once again tonight.

@Fish22

 Very nice done man . Thanks for sharing 

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