All the tendencies in game 6-7 elimination games point to the under however, I have to say that perhaps some of that has already been factored into the line for this game by the bookmakers. Remember, they know the tendencies as well!
Boston has a boatload of players that can make shots. Miami has players that can make shots when they are on their game and game 7 is no better place to shine and BE ON your game.
The over is 4-2 in this series and 4-1 in the last 5 games. Clearly these two teams have shown the ability to make shots and surpass similar totals so far in this series. There has been a tendency in this series for the games to go over the total and the two unders barely stayed under. No reason to abandon that tendency tonight.
Here's what I see from the officiating side of things...
Mike Callahan 187.7 points per game
Joe Crawford 190.5 ppg
Scott Foster 192.7 ppg
Ed Malloy 194.4 ppg
So we have on officiating crew that has officiated games that average a full 13 points over the posted total for tonight's game. I can't ignore that.
We have a Miami offence averaging 97 ppg scored and 91 ppg on defence but are averaging mid 90's their last 5. Boston has averaged 91.3 scored and 89 against but they are averaging in the mid 90's their last 5. The probabilites of both teams scoring 90 points tonight remain high.
If venue makes a difference then it is worthwhile noting that these two teams have played over the total in Over is 19 of the last 26 meetings in Miami.
Game 6 and 7 under tendencies aside, this game in my view breaks that tendency and surpasses the total. Remember we aren't dealing with a 200 total like the Spurs elimination game ... this is a relatively surpassable total right out of the box.
Slight lean to the Heat but not enough to earn a play from me. The only play will be on these two teams to play over the total.
All the tendencies in game 6-7 elimination games point to the under however, I have to say that perhaps some of that has already been factored into the line for this game by the bookmakers. Remember, they know the tendencies as well!
Boston has a boatload of players that can make shots. Miami has players that can make shots when they are on their game and game 7 is no better place to shine and BE ON your game.
The over is 4-2 in this series and 4-1 in the last 5 games. Clearly these two teams have shown the ability to make shots and surpass similar totals so far in this series. There has been a tendency in this series for the games to go over the total and the two unders barely stayed under. No reason to abandon that tendency tonight.
Here's what I see from the officiating side of things...
Mike Callahan 187.7 points per game
Joe Crawford 190.5 ppg
Scott Foster 192.7 ppg
Ed Malloy 194.4 ppg
So we have on officiating crew that has officiated games that average a full 13 points over the posted total for tonight's game. I can't ignore that.
We have a Miami offence averaging 97 ppg scored and 91 ppg on defence but are averaging mid 90's their last 5. Boston has averaged 91.3 scored and 89 against but they are averaging in the mid 90's their last 5. The probabilites of both teams scoring 90 points tonight remain high.
If venue makes a difference then it is worthwhile noting that these two teams have played over the total in Over is 19 of the last 26 meetings in Miami.
Game 6 and 7 under tendencies aside, this game in my view breaks that tendency and surpasses the total. Remember we aren't dealing with a 200 total like the Spurs elimination game ... this is a relatively surpassable total right out of the box.
Slight lean to the Heat but not enough to earn a play from me. The only play will be on these two teams to play over the total.
To those who say that "gut instinct" is the key to capping and ignore statistics when evaluating a game---they are uninformed, arrogant bettors who likely win no money in the long term. Capping involves assessing a variety of factors, with certain statistics being an informative component. Don't you want to have potentially salient information when making a wager, regardless of its origin?
Fever, thanks for the info and good luck. May Venus Flytrap live long as well.
To those who say that "gut instinct" is the key to capping and ignore statistics when evaluating a game---they are uninformed, arrogant bettors who likely win no money in the long term. Capping involves assessing a variety of factors, with certain statistics being an informative component. Don't you want to have potentially salient information when making a wager, regardless of its origin?
Fever, thanks for the info and good luck. May Venus Flytrap live long as well.
This was my biggest playoff wager. I really felt the bookmakers compensated for the fact that every square in the world knew that elimination games have a tendency to the under (over 70% these playoffs) ... As a result we over bettors got a better line. Both teams easily reached 90 points as expected they would .... Writing this with Boston at 86 but they will eclipse 90 ..... Good winner if you followed or bet! Now time to do some homework on what appears to be a Heat v OKC final.
This was my biggest playoff wager. I really felt the bookmakers compensated for the fact that every square in the world knew that elimination games have a tendency to the under (over 70% these playoffs) ... As a result we over bettors got a better line. Both teams easily reached 90 points as expected they would .... Writing this with Boston at 86 but they will eclipse 90 ..... Good winner if you followed or bet! Now time to do some homework on what appears to be a Heat v OKC final.
Thanks FEVER. Bet 10 units ($1000) on this after I read your post on a different thread. I got my ass kicked in the last MIA game (at BOS) with stupid live bets on BOS - and stupidly posting them all on a pro-MIA thread. I learned my lesson - I made a $250 live bet on MIA -8 +340 when BOS was ahead by 7 in the 1H.
In the last 2 days, made some large losing MLB bets - but tonight your way OVER and my MIA lesson - evened out all my losing bets since the last MIA game.
I really appreciate your sharpbetting analysis and followup.
Thanks FEVER. Bet 10 units ($1000) on this after I read your post on a different thread. I got my ass kicked in the last MIA game (at BOS) with stupid live bets on BOS - and stupidly posting them all on a pro-MIA thread. I learned my lesson - I made a $250 live bet on MIA -8 +340 when BOS was ahead by 7 in the 1H.
In the last 2 days, made some large losing MLB bets - but tonight your way OVER and my MIA lesson - evened out all my losing bets since the last MIA game.
I really appreciate your sharpbetting analysis and followup.
wish u post this review a little earlier heheheh but before i read this stas for you sir i already buy the over for 1k pesos here in the philippines .. if only i read this earlier i go could go to 3k ... ...
wish u post this review a little earlier heheheh but before i read this stas for you sir i already buy the over for 1k pesos here in the philippines .. if only i read this earlier i go could go to 3k ... ...
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